2025 JL Geoghegan, Cali vs. Omaha: No Runs Allowed

[aaronweiner]

Quick Info:


Omaha Record: 83-79
Omaha Run Differential: 688/602

California Record: 84-78
California Run Differential: 587/567


Head to Head:

Omaha won the season series comfortably by a margin of 6-3 and a run differential of 33-27, in games as low scoring as you’d expect with California’s pitching staff and California’s offense (an average of about 6.6 runs per game.

Previously In The Playoffs:

California are the reigning champions in the MBWBA, and did it by going through Omaha last season in the Cartwright. To say that Omaha would probably like revenge in this series, given that they won a league-high 103 games last year, is probably a dramatic understatement.

Special: Odds Based on MY simulations

I'm going to say about 3:4 for Omaha, but no really good intel on this one. This comes down to one-run ballgames, and that's just not reliable.

Overview:

It’s rematch city in the Johnson League this year, as the two teams that played each other last year in the JL Cartwright Cup are back again to play it off in the Geoghegan round for a chance at Huntsville. Last year, California’s pitching took them all the way to a title, and it’s just as good this season, though their offense has been as bad as their pitching is good. Omaha had the worst luck of any team this year record-wise; their run differential suggests a 91-win team, and while neither their offense nor their pitching staff has been as impressive as last year, they’ve again showed a solid balance of both.

This might be a situation that’s almost identical to last year: on paper, Omaha is the better team, but California has the superstars in the rotation. Will the Barnstormers get revenge and a shot at rival Huntsville, or will California be put to the test against the Phantoms?

Hitting:

Last year, I wrote how big a deal it was that the California righties didn’t have to play against Emilio Rodriguez. Sunshine didn’t have his best season, but to think he’s been blunted somehow would be a huge mistake. Few teams rely on walks less or batting average more than Omaha, who finished second in the JL in batting average but just sixth in OBP. They also don’t hit a ton of homers, instead relying on speed and savvy for their offense. That said, while the Omaha offense wasn’t particularly potent this year, they have the potential to come alive at any point in this series, which would make playing it a moot point.

California’s offense scored just 587 runs this year, but in a strange year in the JL, 587 runs – considerably less than four per game – was good for eighth, but just twelve runs out of last place in that category. The offense is heavily dependent on the huge power bat of Cris Vazquez, who hit 35 homers and drove in 108 this season. Despite Vazquez, the team finished 11th in HR and extra base hits, and last in walks. DH Jin-oong An had a very strong rookie campaign, and surprisingly hit better at home than on the road. Doug Glover, released by the team late in the season, was hardly a factor this year, so his loss might not be felt as heavily as in prior years.

These are the two top fielding teams in the MBWBA this year, and they’re both so good that we can probably ignore defense altogether in this series. Omaha led the Johnson League in stolen bases this year, but they’re going up against one of the premier defensive catching corps in the MBWBA, so that might not be a huge advantage again in this series.

Pitching:

Obviously, pitching is taking center stage in this series, and there’s no bigger arm in this series than Ricardo Diaz, who might be the very best pitcher in the MBWBA today. Jesus Tonche and Gow Cho will make certain that the team has no gaps in the rotation in this series. Despite the outstanding rotation, California was just seventh in bullpen ERA and really doesn’t have any stars in the pen other than Corey Edwards, who had a flat zero WAR despite a 2.93 ERA and 33 saves.

Omaha also has one of the finest pitchers in the game in Enrique Gomez, who has shown that you can be a legitimate #1 starter without being particularly durable. Gomez won his second ERA title in three years this season, and if not for Diaz might have won his first Steve Nebraska. Their rotation depth is also very good, as Atsumori Maeda is highly regarded and Mick Hanscombe has been solid for the Barnstormers. Omaha had the best bullpen in the game last year, and most of the same players are back this year with the same regard, but not the same numbers.


Overall:

This one’s pretty simple. California’s offense is even worse than last year, when, you know, they won a title. The Barnstormers held the Crusaders to just three runs per game in the regular season and won six of nine. What’s not to hate for California?

Yes, the Crusaders have the better rotation, but their bullpen is highly suspect and their offense is terrible, even worse than last year. Even if California manages to get past Omaha again, it’s nearly impossible to see them repeating, but I’m fairly sure they won’t even get that far if Gomez can outduel Diaz in the opener.

Prediction: Omaha in 2.

[agrudez]

With all due respect to Ted, I'm looking forward to OMA v. HSV round 3.

[Rubaboo]

Hoping the duo of Sunshine and Caballero can get me past California's righties this year.

[Ted]

I think you nailed it Aaron. My offense is atrocious, and the pen sucks. I looked a bit early this year, but I couldn't find a trade I like that didn't have me wiping out the farm system it took me 4 seasons to take from completely empty to respectable. Still Diaz, Toche and pray for rain worked for me last year, so I've always got a shot, but I'm expecting to be bounced in two.

[Lane]

I think you nailed it Aaron. My offense is atrocious, and the pen sucks. I looked a bit early this year, but I couldn't find a trade I like that didn't have me wiping out the farm system it took me 4 seasons to take from completely empty to respectable. Still Diaz, Toche and pray for rain worked for me last year, so I've always got a shot, but I'm expecting to be bounced in two.

Anything can happen in a short series! Exciting stuff.


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[agrudez]

I think you nailed it Aaron. My offense is atrocious, and the pen sucks. I looked a bit early this year, but I couldn't find a trade I like that didn't have me wiping out the farm system it took me 4 seasons to take from completely empty to respectable. Still Diaz, Toche and pray for rain worked for me last year, so I've always got a shot, but I'm expecting to be bounced in two.

Diaz-Gomez, Maeda-Tonche and Hanscomb-Cho are all a huge matchup wins for California. It'll be interesting.

[udlb58]

Anything can happen in a short series, but I'll take the team with the three best starting pitchers every time. I would put money on Cali

[c-mitch]

Bugaha.

[scottsdale_joe]

"Awful offense" scores 14 runs in two-game sweep.
Nice series for 27-year-old rookie Jin-Oong An, series MVP.

[Ted]

"Awful offense" scores 14 runs in two-game sweep.
Nice series for 27-year-old rookie Jin-Oong An, series MVP.

Anything can something something short series cliche. If I ever bitch about losing playoff series when I have the better team, remind me of my absurd luck last year and this year.