Baltimore Monarchs Preview

[aaronweiner]

Welcome to the preview of the reigning champion Baltimore Monarchs. No team has been to the playoffs more often than Baltimore, as they have missed the postseason just twice in the last 17 years, but they had never before won a title until last year, when they took down the Seattle Storm in seven games.

It's interesting that they would have done it with what might have been considered their worst team in the last 20 years. Their expected win/loss differential was only 84-78, which (had they finished at that number) would have matched their worst season since 2004. They were the beneficiaries of a red-hot bullpen and a rotation that got hot in the playoffs, kind of like an NHL team riding a hot goalie. (Jason, feel free.) The problem with having such a team is that they're not necessarily reliable the next year, and there's a chance that Louisville, who's unquestionably the future in the JL Atlantic, might push them from behind this year like they did last season.

Can the Monarchs repeat their title? Will they even make it back to the playoffs?


Last Season

Last season, the Monarchs finished with a 89-73 record, winning the JLA by five games over Louisville before running the table in the playoffs. The team was heavily skewed towards offense and until the playoffs, barely had a pitching staff worth noting. The only teams that finished behind Baltimore in runs allowed were Phoenix, Washington and Hawaii, who were last in the JLM, last in the JLA, and last in the JLP, respectively, losing an average of 99 games. So when Baltimore's pitching woke up in the playoffs, it was a massive surprise to everyone who had been watching them all season. Shockingly, Baltimore made the run without David Lewis, who was considered the team's top pitcher in the regular season.

The big move for them was adding Martin Huigens and Yves Riviere. Huigens was subpar for the Monarchs and did nothing in the playoffs until the Landis, where he could easily have been named MVP of the series. Riviere, on the other hand, was a solid offensive force for the Monarchs, living up to the potential everyone knew he had. They gave up struggling outfielder Mal Banks, who purportedly got a ring anyway, and pitching prospect Ace Young.



Offseason Moves

Free Agent Signings:

Signed free agent SP Jose Bruno to a 1-year contract worth a total of $1,800,000.

Signed free agent SS Bartolo Esquivel to a 1-year contract worth a total of $3,200,000.

Signed free agent SP Daniel Richie to a 1-year contract worth a total of $2,000,000.

Signed free agent LF Jeffery Johnston to a 1-year contract worth a total of $3,000,000.

Signed free agent RF Rick Daly to a 1-year contract worth a total of $2,090,000.


Note on offseason moves: Baltimore signed Jose Bruno and Daniel Richie, two solid lefty pitchers, to extremely cheap contracts this offseason, which is almost unimaginable. Jeffrey Johnston we get, since he's beginning to lump. What's the league's excuse on the other guys?



This year's team

Team hitting:

Baltimore is one of the best hitting parks in the majors, which surely helps their players and helped them to the second-best offensive output in the JL last year. Riviere could have consistent .400 OBPs in Baltimore and be a dependable leadoff guy. The offense rolls on star 1B Lucio Vazquez. Dale Bunker and Jim Dunn are two of the best two-way players in the game, though they likely wouldn't hit nearly so well anywhere else. Honestly, even a nobody like Shane Nobbs can have a year with a 1.000 OPS in Baltimore. After those four, the offense is actually surprisingly pedestrian, though we like Josh Gomm and the recently signed Rick Daly (who on other teams has hit above his career average of .257 just once in six seasons) might be a very smart add.

One warning sign: Bunker has lumped a little bit, and while the superstar actually hit better last year than he had since 2009, it's more likely that he'll have an OPS in the .800s rather than the .900 range. That might drop his WAR a point or two.

Team pitching:

As mentioned before, Baltimore finished ninth in runs allowed last year. Other than the obvious park factor, there are real warts on the Baltimore pitching staff. First important note: David Lewis, the team's #1 starter last year, won't be back at any point this season, not even if they make it to the Landis again. Juan Rivera will have to pick up the slack in his absence. Martin Huigens will probably pitch better in his second year in a Baltimore uniform, but we think he's kind of a bad fit in Charm City. That's because his game is built on painting corners and hoping they don't hit the ball out of the ballpark. He did go 5-2 in nine Baltimore starts, but posted a 5.49 ERA. Ron Harmon threw beautifully last year, but he's a question mark. James Endres is now highly vulnerable to lefthanded hitters and will have to be used accordingly; if Baltimore is really careful, they'll use Endres against righthanded-heavy teams and new signee Daniel Ritchie against lefty-dominant teams.

Their bullpen was pretty good last year. Stanley Price is the headliner. Ira Arthur probably wasn't quite as good as his numbers suggested, but he's usually reliable. Todd McKeever is showing some age. Last year's surprise biggest standout Jeffrey Baeza (a Type A free agent!) is now a Brussels Eagle, and there isn't much depth after that. Baltimore might have a lot more problems in the pen this year unless they get more surprise performances.


Bottom line:

Last year was the first year in a while that Baltimore had been pushed from behind in the Johnson League Atlantic Division: over the previous three years, Baltimore had won their division by an average of 13 games. Louisville, who still has the fourth-best minor league system despite a lot of their youth having arrived, is the logical successor to the JLA throne. We think that this might be the year that Baltimore gets toppled. They're missing their best starter from last year, their bullpen is more suspect than last year, Bunker is aging a little bit and if a lot of things hadn't gone right for them last year they might not have even won their own division, much less their first MBWBA Championship.

We're going to predict a winning record for Baltimore, but keep in mind that the team had the run differential of an 84-78 team last year and we think they'll fall back a bit. This could be the third year in the last 18 seasons the Baltimore Monarchs haven't made it to the playoffs, and if Louisville is for real, that run could be an awfully long time.

Nick, you're welcome.

Projected Record for the Baltimore Monarchs: 83-79.

[Al-Hoot]

[nverhoev]

Good write up. You're outlook is the same as mine- It's going to be a struggle this year.

[aaronweiner]

Good write up. You're outlook is the same as mine- It's going to be a struggle this year.

But when you got the ring, it don't mean a thang.

[nverhoev]

Yeah it's going to be an easy decision to tear down before the trade deadline if things aren't going well.