Breaking Down the FL Races, Part II

[aaronweiner]

We're down to less than twenty days in the season. Two races have all but been decided: Hackensack has all but captured the FL Atlantic title, with a pitifully easy schedule down the stretch, while Seattle looks to have control of the Pacific. Seattle will have a much tougher run of it, but with under 20 games to play, their lead seems safe; if there's an update we'll examine it on Friday or Saturday. Each team has a 4 1/2 game lead with less than 20 games to play, putting them near 90% to win their divisions.

However, it's impossible to call the FL wild card race. In fact, the race has gotten tighter since our last segment, with Las Vegas having jumped into third place, leapfrogging Birmingham. Calgary and Buffalo are now tied at the top with Buffalo having the tiebreaker, so Calgary has indeed lost their cushion. Las Vegas, without having a particularly strong sim, stands just two games back, and Birmingham still lurks at two and a half games back. Atlantic City is now six and a half back as well, but since they'd have to get extraordinarily hot to catch all four teams, we won't review them here. However: if they move closer, we might take a closer look after next sim.

So, let's look at the stretch runs for all four contenders.


Team Schedules


Buffalo Bison (76-68), leading by tiebreaker

Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 6 (Calgary two, Hackensack three)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 12 (Atlantic City four, Montreal six, Long Beach three)


Calgary Marauders (76-68), tied, trailing by tiebreaker

Games left: 18
Games left against contenders: 9 (four Seattle, two Buffalo, three Las Vegas)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 9 (three Montreal, six Long Beach)


Las Vegas Hustlers (75-71) trailing by two games, three in loss column

Games left: 16
Games left against contenders: 11 (five Seattle, three Calgary, three Birmingham)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 5 (four Long Beach, one New Orleans)


Birmingham Bandits (73-70), trailing by two and a half games, two in loss column

Games left: 19
Games left against contenders: 9 (four Austin, three Las Vegas, two Seattle)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 10 (seven New Orleans, three Des Moines)


Key Series Down the Stretch

September 11-12: Calgary at Buffalo, two games
TIVO rating: 100

This one could decide the fate of the wild card, as two Calgary wins would put them back in the driver's seat. If either team takes both games, the result would seriously put a damper on the hopes of Birmingham and Las Vegas.


September 19-22, Calgary at Seattle
TIVO rating: 85

Seattle's schedule is a little tougher than Calgary's, so if Calgary splits the two games against Buffalo this one could go a long way towards seeing Calgary in the playoffs - or end their run miserably. You can switch the recording to NCIS if Calgary loses the first game of the series.


September 19-22, Birmingham at Austin
TIVO rating: 75

Sure, Birmingham has two more against Seattle and three against Las Vegas and could be too far back by the time they get to Austin. However, if they're still in it by this point, a win in this series would go a long way towards Birmingham's run at the wild card. Worth watching in part because there's some serious bad blood between the teams by now.


September 23-25, Buffalo at Hackensack
TIVO rating: 65

This could be the last series of the year that matters and the ONLY series left for Buffalo that they're potentially favored to lose. They could have the wild card all but wrapped up by now, but if they don't, Hackensack could prove to be the spoiler.


Anaylsis of FL Wild Card Race

Buffalo has taken command of the wild card and in theory should be able to drive it home, but lost the first game of a three-game set with Calgary. Should they get swept by Calgary it really becomes anyone's game, as the major scheduling advantage that the Bison had down the stretch would be offset by Calgary's two game advantage. They still have the easiest schedule down the stretch and would be the odds-on favorite to be in the playoffs when the season ends. However: anything can happen, and usually does.

Calgary, on the other hand, has gone through the toughest part of their schedule and now has just four games against teams with a better record. However, with Buffalo's monstrously easy schedule, Calgary must be looking at Wednesday and Thursday's games as must wins. The pitching matchups are already set, and Calgary has Allen Izatt going against Buffalo's Richard Tolleson in the first game and Lee Plemel against Buffalo's Dave Blain in the second, a matchup that clearly favors the Marauders. If they do get the series sweep, they're still not home, but a two-game lead is a big one with just 16 games left to go.

Las Vegas still has a tough group of opponents down the stretch, and while they still look like spoilers - especially since they're scheduled to play wild card contenders Calgary and Birmingham - they're still in it themselves if they can put together a solid run down the stretch. They gained back two games last sim - who's to say it won't happen again? That said, we don't think they're likely to make up three games in the loss column, which might include tiebreakers against one or both teams. They do have a number of off days and can manipulate their pitching accordingly, however.

Birmingham lost - you guessed it - two one run games to Austin this week. In winning just one of four against Austin, they suffered the fate which we had predicted: they're on pace to go 2-6 against Austin down the stretch, which will almost certainly put them on the outside looking in. They won most of the games they should have this week, but with a split against Austin they'd be just a game and a half back and just one in the loss column - a big difference at this point in the season. They can play spoiler themselves, even if they don't win the wild card, as they'll get Las Vegas and Seattle over the next week. Birmingham also has no off days for the rest of the year, which means that they may have big problems with rest.


New Percentage Odds


With a Buffalo-Calgary Split

Buffalo 45%
Calgary 35%
Birmingham 10%
Las Vegas 10%

If Calgary wins both games:

Calgary 55%
Buffalo 35%
Birmingham 5%
Las Vegas 5%

If Buffalo wins both games (already with the tiebreaker):

Buffalo 70%
Calgary 25%
Birmingham 3%
Las Vegas 2%


Check back with us in a couple days for our final analysis!

[aaronweiner]

[mad0die]

I am the playoff nazi. No playoffs for you!

[cramsey51]

Nice continuation...I love the TIVO ratings

[DenverZeppo]

These are a great read. It makes me a little disappointed that my team, which is really good on paper, can't seem to put it together.

Zep

[aaronweiner]

Well, you might have guessed that I've done this before. Ask Recte if I've written a bit for other leagues.

Your team HAS put it together if you can win the next two against Buffalo, and you'd seem to be favored in both games.

These are a great read. It makes me a little disappointed that my team, which is really good on paper, can't seem to put it together.

Zep

[recte44]

Never underestimate the Recte.