'08 JL RotY Award Race - Ed #1 (8/21 sim date)

[agrudez]

Here are the current best candidates for the JL RotY award.

Note (from wikipedia): The current standard of 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club (excluding time in military service or on the disabled list) before September 1 was adopted in 1971.

Greenville’s RP Wally Walker
Prior ML experience: 39 G, 42 IP, 6.64 ERA, 1.76 WHIP
Current ML stats: 12 G, 13.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 18 K, 0.3 WAR
Case: Being a reliever instantly makes Walker a long-shot for the award, but the fact that he is the only one that graces the list is a compliment in and of itself. The odds are further stacked against him due to the sparing usage of him by Greenville – for inexplicable reasons.
Projection: Long-shot candidate

Baltimores’ SP David Lewis
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 2 GS, 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6 K, 0.4 WAR
Case: With a very impressive ’08 AAA season (22 GS, 169 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) Lewis was a recent call-up to the majors. In his first 2 starts of the year, he impressed and with a little over 1 month left in the season there is still time for him to accumulate the stats needed to be entered into the discussion for the RotY award; however, he will always still be a long shot (unless he just absolutely dominates) at best due to his shortened sample size. If he were held under 50 IP this season (unlikely, but possible), though, he would become the early favorite to claim the title next season.
Projection: Late-comer long-shot candidate

Baltimore’s OF Mike Roberts
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 16 G, 62 AB, .387/.415/.565/.980 batting line, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 0.7 WAR
Case: Another late call-up for Baltimore (after a .910 OPS in 384 ABs in AAA this season), Roberts is another case of a player, like Lewis, whom likely will have too small a sample size for this award (unless he can maintain his current torrid pace) and will also render himself ineligible for next year’s rendition as well – with only 68 ABs needed to reach the 130 quota, with over a month left to play.
Projection: Late-comer long-shot candidate

Washington’s OF Monty Cunningham
Prior ML experience: 13 G, 18 AB, .906 OPS
Current ML stats: 19 G, 64 AB, .313/.357/.500/.857 batting line, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB, 0.5 WAR
Case: Like Roberts and Lewis, Cunningham likely entered his hat into the ring too late for true consideration of the award this season; however, Cunningham’s excuse was a hip injury suffered in April that stole 4 months of his season. With his recent rejoining of the Bobwhites; however, he still has over a month to make a case for himself, though will likely end up as a long-shot due to sample size.
Projection: Late-comer long-shot candidate

Omaha’s DH Cornell Litchfield
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 31 G, 119 AB, .294/.346/.479/.828 batting line, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 0 SB, 0.6 WAR
Case: After 3 straight seasons of impressing with the bat in AAA (.910 OPS in ’06, .818 OPS in ’07 and .846 OPS in ’08) Litchfield finally got his chance in the majors and has not disappointed. Coming a bit later to the race (mid-July) will hurt his chances for candidacy, though.
Projection: Improbable, but possible candidate

Valencia’s 2B Roger Rouse
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 59 G, 179 AB, .291/.323/.413/.736 batting line, 0 HR, 23 RBI, 7 SB, 0.9 WAR
Case: Rouse has had an odd ’08 season thus far, with a nearly even split of ABs in AAA and the majors across multiple promotions and demotions. Despite being jerked around, he has, during his time in the majors, a solid glove at 2B and a respectable offensive contributor for the Stars.
Projection: Improbable, but possible candidate

Chicago’s SP Roy Nevel, Jr.
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 11 GS, 64.1 IP, 5.04 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 42 K, 1.2 WAR
Case: After a very strong start in AAA (2.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 87 IP and 13 starts), Nevel, Jr. got the call to the big club where he continued his success – recording a 3.65 ERA in 2 June starts and a 4.88 ERA in 5 July starts. The month of August; however, has not been kind to the young right-hander as he has posted a 6.1 ERA in 4 starts thus far, tanking his season stats in the process. Few would argue that the 20 year old doesn’t have the talent to turn it around, though, and, if he does, he could make a very strong case for himself when things are all said and done.
Projection: Possible candidate

Louisville’s OF Chris Thomas
Prior ML experience: 27 G, 110 AB, .804 OPS
Current ML stats: 114 G, 464 AB, .254/.301/.384/.684 batting line, 3 HR, 52 RBI, 42 SB, 0.9 WAR
Case: With elite CF defense and blinding speed, Thomas has been in the discussion for this award all season (and was likely the favorite at the end of May, in which he posted a .917 OPS for the month) – until he hit one of the worst cold streaks in recent MBBA memory (a .479 OPS in 93 ABs in July and a .445 OPS in 67 ABs thus far in August) which tanked his season stats. Still, he has over a month to right the ship and, if he does, it will be hard to overlook him as a legitimate candidate.
Projection: Possible candidate

Chicago’s SS Alonso Rodriguez
Prior ML experience: 7 G, 19 AB, .789 OPS
Current ML stats: 67 G, 236 AB, .271/.303/.411/.714 batting line, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 7 SB, 1.5 WAR
Case: With strong middle infield defense (+3.3 ZR in 19 games at SS and +6.6 ZR in 49 games at 2B) and respectable production for traditionally weak offensive positions Rodriguez has made put in a very strong rookie campaign and entered himself rightfully so into the discussion for RotY. A weak month of August (.570 OPS in 64 ABs thus far) has hurt his offensive numbers and he doesn’t have much in the way of ‘glamour’ stats, but a (slight turned around and) solid month+ to close the season with the bat coupled with continued consistent glove work would make him a high overall value player in the running for the award.
Projection: Legit candidate

Valencia’s 1B Angelo Vargos
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 111 G, 407 AB, .283/.349/.467/.816 batting line, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB, 1.9 WAR
Case: Vargos’ stock in the RotY race has fluctuated greatly this season as each month has seen a different side of Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde (.912 OPS in April, .601 OPS in May, .979 OPS in June, .558 OPS in July and 1.143 OPS in August); however, as you can see, when he has been on he has been not only one of the best rookies in the league, but one of its best hitters as well. If he can finish August strong and avoid his previously scheduled down month in September he could quickly become one of the favorites to win it all.
Projection: Legit candidate

Madison Wolves’ SP Russell Martin
Prior ML experience: 2 GS, 7.1 IP, 14.73 ERA, 2.59 WHIP
Current ML stats: 25 GS, 164 IP, 3.4 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 121 K, 3.1 WAR
Case: With the current highest WAR among all eligible candidates, Martin’s candidacy is, of course, very strong. No other pitcher on this list has compiled the numbers he has for the sample size he has and it seems as though he has taken his game to another level in the second half of the season as well – posting a 1.89 ERA in 5 July starts and a 1.9 ERA in 4 August starts (after posting remarkably consistent ERAs April-May: 4.46, 3.89 and 4.35 respectively). If he can continue the dominance he has displayed for just shy of the past 2 months then he will no doubt be a shoe-in for the award; however, even if he ‘reverts to mean’ a bit, few project his odds as any worse than 50/50 as of this writing.
Projection: Strong candidate

Omaha Barnstormers’ 1B Miguel Toro
Prior ML experience: N/A
Current ML stats: 125 G, 479 AB, .305/.366/.493/.859 batting line, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 1 SB, 2.5 WAR
Case: The highest WAR among all eligible hitters makes Toro’s candidacy a very strong one – as does his leading OPS (among batters whom have had more than 80 ABs) and ‘glamor stats’. After a slow start to the year (.693 OPS in April), Toro exploded onto the scene with a 1.031 OPS in May and has followed it up most recently with a.89 and .974 OPS in July and August respectively. If he can continue his current pace of the past 2 months he will quickly become THE favorite to win the award; however, even maintaining his current season stat line would be enough to make him A favorite.
Projection: Strong candidate

[Fat Nige]

I schall enjoy looking back over this in 2018

[7teen]

It's between Toro and Russell. I think Russell needs to get to 14-15 wins to put him over the edge. If Toro clears 25 homers or 100 RBI I think he takes it. If neither reach those, it'll be interesting to see. My experience is that voters go with the better WAR and VORP numbers. But that's when comparing pitchers to pitchers and hitters to hitters. In this case, I'm not sure what the voters will do.

[trmmilwwi]

Great feature, I hope it keeps going. I like the fact that you have included a fairly large sample size for the award even though it is really down to a handful (if that) of possible contenders. Louisville's Thomas was the first to be called up to the bigs from last season's draft if I am not mistaken. It'd be interesting to list the callups as they happen as well. Although that may be another feature entirely. Good stuff!

[Greeney03]

You're right about Wally Walker, he will not win the award because of his position. I hope Toro wins it. I have to root for my old guy.

[agrudez]

It's between Toro and Russell.

I like the fact that you have included a fairly large sample size for the award even though it is really down to a handful (if that) of possible contenders.

There is still over a month of games left to play, so let's not close the book on these guys yet.

For instance, what if Roberts can keep his OPS around where it is now for almost 2 months? I'd have to think long and hard about voting for a .860 OPS (Toro) over a .980 OPS (Roberts) even if it is a full season vs. a third of one. Thomas still has time to bounce back and its tough to ignore what is likely to be 50+ stolen bags and elite defense as long as his OPS is in the .750ish range. Rodriguez has had a rough month, but his WAR is right up there with Toro's. And Vargos? The kids on an incredible tear in August. As I pointed out, he has had 1 up month followed by one down all year long, but if he can stay hot through September he could definitely pass Toro offensively.

[Greeney03]

All I'm saying is...

Go...

[Al-Hoot]

And I was just reading about Earnest Hemingway being in the ring with the bulls.... How life collides!

[7teen]

It's between Toro and Russell.

I like the fact that you have included a fairly large sample size for the award even though it is really down to a handful (if that) of possible contenders.

There is still over a month of games left to play, so let's not close the book on these guys yet.

For instance, what if Roberts can keep his OPS around where it is now for almost 2 months? I'd have to think long and hard about voting for a .860 OPS (Toro) over a .980 OPS (Roberts) even if it is a full season vs. a third of one. Thomas still has time to bounce back and its tough to ignore what is likely to be 50+ stolen bags and elite defense as long as his OPS is in the .750ish range. Rodriguez has had a rough month, but his WAR is right up there with Toro's. And Vargos? The kids on an incredible tear in August. As I pointed out, he has had 1 up month followed by one down all year long, but if he can stay hot through September he could definitely pass Toro offensively.

I, personally, won't vote for a guy who played 1/3 of the season like Roberts did over a guy who has had a good full season. That's just me. I'll take Toro at .850 for a full season over .950 for Roberts at a 1/3 season. There is something to be said for 500 ABs to 150 ABs.

And with that said, that is why Toro may have the advantage over Russell. Toro, playing an everyday position, has the advantage over a pitcher who plays in 30-35 games. That's why I think it may be important for Russell to have an outstanding final month where he can either approach 15 wins or get that ERA closer to 3.00 than 3.50.

I'll be making a personal pitch for Russell though if Madison makes the playoffs. As a rookie, he would have stepped up as our #2 starter, pitched as part of a 4-man rotation for over half the season, and put up some pretty solid numbers for any pitcher, let alone a rookie.

[felipe]

Thomas stats went in the tank...as did his ratings...

this always seems to happen to all my favourite guys...guys who came out of nowhere...and then swiftly return...

You'd think their ratings would move up to correspond to their inflated stats...not decline and take their stats with them...

Bah...maybe its just something I'm doing wrong with player dev

[Al-Hoot]

I hadn't noticed that Wally Walker's movement and control both moved up to 7. This is inexplicable to me. Had I known, I never would have traded 'the kid.'

[agrudez]

I hadn't noticed that Wally Walker's movement and control both moved up to 7. This is inexplicable to me. Had I known, I never would have traded 'the kid.'

Looks like it was sometime during this season.

[nverhoev]

May 1, 2008
Control Talent Increases from 6 to 7

July 1, 2008
Groundball% Increases from 47 to 48
Overall Movement Increases from 6 to 7
Movement versus Righties Increases from 6 to 7
Movement Talent Increases from 6 to 7



Nice feature- I like Russell Martin for ROY. I don't think Mike Roberts can keep up his numbers, but I hope he does!

[jpoppe0219]

Toro is a total stud. Bet ya a beer he wins it.