2062 - The Death of the 200 Inning Pitcher

[BaseClogger]

10/7/2062


There's been an evident trend in Major League Baseball dating back decades now of starting pitchers throwing less and less pitches per start and as a result less innings over a full season. Managers and front office analysts want to avoid having their starting pitchers face opposing lineups a third time thru the order while also leveraging more and more talented relief specialists who light up the radar gun.

Aaron and I were having a conversation about this topic as it relates to the BBA under a recent Jacksonville TN post and I decided to pull the data to back up one of my hunches--that we're seeing a decline in the number of established, top tier starting pitchers logging over 200 innings. Below is a count of starting pitchers who met the 200 inning, 175 inning, and 150 inning threshold for every season since I joined the league.

	> 200 IP	> 175 IP	> 150 IP
2051	31	66	114
2052	38	82	125
2053	40	92	132
2054	46	97	138
2055	41	85	128
2056	40	87	122
2057	28	74	121
2058	38	75	124
2059	32	88	130
2060	36	98	138
2061	30	81	119
2062	10	70	112

I pulled the data in chronological order so to be honest I was pretty disappointed to not really see a trend over the years until suddenly I reached 2062. After averaging 36 pitchers who tossed 200 or more innings from 2051 to 2061 that number nosedived to just 10 pitchers in 2062.

Below is the list of those 10 pitchers.

Name	AGE	Team	IP	ERA
Shinsui Hasegawa	32	CLG	238.2	3.55
Brian Whitford	25	ATC	223.2	2.90
Dave Corfield	37	MEX	219	3.78
Garth Dobbs	28	DM	215.1	2.88
George White	24	SA	213.1	4.56
Hector Silva	30	CCJ	211	3.80
Ji-e Woo	34	MEX	210.1	4.19
John O'Leary	23	POR	205	4.04
Cesar Franco	25	SA	202.1	4.45
Buwono Mainaky	33	CHA	202.1	3.07

As I mentioned in the intro, there can be several reasons for this phenomenon. Is it front office strategy to limit how many times opposing hitters see your starters? Is it a fallow period for starting pitching talent? Or--as in the case of my pet theory--is it a reaction to the increased talent level of the relief pitchers entering the league? I can't say for certain, but you should take note that if you didn't have a 200 inning pitcher on your staff this season you were in the majority of teams.

[aaronweiner]

Good article. Based on this, notably, only 1/2 of regular starters went 180. (Corrected from not paying attention before.)

[RonCo]

That's interesting. The dropoff is quite large. I'm wondering if that's just a weird aberration, or if maybe there are injuries at work? Some is probably the talent of relief pitchers, but there's also the question of whether older players (of which starting pitchers are prime candidates) are falling off too fast.

[BaseClogger]

I had to pull the historical seasons using the .html pages and 2062 using Statsplus so let me know if anybody sees anything off.

[BaseClogger]

I knew something was up when I saw Alexander Swanson reach 18th in Ron’s SP power rankings. I view him as a MOR innings eater.

[Bob Breum]

Lucio Juarez threw 199 innings for us over 31 starts. He was the only member of our rotation who was present all season. All of the others either arrived in trade or spent time in the bullpen.

[ae37jr]

I've stayed away from it over the years. Going for quality over quantity. But I fully intend to use Enzo Bouton as a sacrificial lamb next season, throwing as many innings as possible to limit the innings of others.not sure how it will go

[JRamirez]

In Dobbs case, first, he has a high stamina rating, and also a durable inj rating; and second DM wasn't blessed with superstar RP. I also have Amaya, who has a 11 STA but he's not among my top five or six starters. Also, if Dobbs arm falls off in five years, that'll justify not re-signing him. Hey, use it before you lose it! I think this is the first SP who topped 200 ip for me since I got here in '59 (eta: Akers had 211 in '60). Some of other rotation starters, well OOTP pulls them after 100 pitches. Comes down to league stamina ratings and the league wide stamina rating, doesn't it?

[RonCo]

Another aspect is that several guys I think have taken to starting 3 and 4 stamina guys. i started Vidaca with 2 stamina for awhile. I suppose that removes starts for others.

[BaseClogger]

In Dobbs case, first, he has a high stamina rating, and also a durable inj rating; and second DM wasn't blessed with superstar RP. I also have Amaya, who has a 11 STA but he's not among my top five or six starters. Also, if Dobbs arm falls off in five years, that'll justify not re-signing him. Hey, use it before you lose it! I think this is the first SP who topped 200 ip for me since I got here in '59 (eta: Akers had 211 in '60). Some of other rotation starters, well OOTP pulls them after 100 pitches. Comes down to league stamina ratings and the league wide stamina rating, doesn't it?

Cantrell threw 200 innings a few times too. You just had the hosses I don’t blame you at all. But I’d say there’s a lot more to it than just league stamina ratings since managers decide when a pitcher leaves the game and we control that.

[JRamirez]

In Dobbs case, first, he has a high stamina rating, and also a durable inj rating; and second DM wasn't blessed with superstar RP. I also have Amaya, who has a 11 STA but he's not among my top five or six starters. Also, if Dobbs arm falls off in five years, that'll justify not re-signing him. Hey, use it before you lose it! I think this is the first SP who topped 200 ip for me since I got here in '59 (eta: Akers had 211 in '60). Some of other rotation starters, well OOTP pulls them after 100 pitches. Comes down to league stamina ratings and the league wide stamina rating, doesn't it?

Cantrell threw 200 innings a few times too. You just had the hosses I don’t blame you at all. But I’d say there’s a lot more to it than just league stamina ratings since managers decide when a pitcher leaves the game and we control that.

(1)Cantrell, twice in 15 seasons, but not when he was with me. (2) I was being conversational, not comprehensive. It's actually the game who pulls Akers. He has no pitch count. Although I do have Everard and Sutphin as a stopper and free-ranging setup/MR, who get a lot of time.

[Trebro]

I don't think there's enough data to know for sure yet. I find the 175 remaining about the same to be the most telling. We also have a number of teams stuck in rebuilding mode, myself included . I'm unlikely to have anyone pitch 200 because I'm trying to figure out who to keep, for example.

That said as much as I hate it, the days of SP going more than 6 is probably dead.

[DaveB]

Is it just the game coding to normalize how SP is used in 2025?

[Trebro]

Is it just the game coding to normalize how SP is used in 2025?

I imagine that's been true last 4 versions though?

[CTBrewCrew]

Wow! That’s a huge drop 10 P - how many are SP vs RP?

[CTBrewCrew]

You’d think the diff would be offset by innings moving to the bullpen. Perhaps a corresponding spike on that side?

[niles08]

Don't worry. I am known to toss them out there until they die so I will get this trend heading in the other direction.

[RonCo]

Don't worry. I am known to toss them out there until they die so I will get this trend heading in the other direction.

Headline:

JUSTIN NILES: "HOLD MY BEER"

[indiansfan]

What do I get for winning?