2061 - The Lou Bayou Deal (Sacramento/Boise)

[Bob Breum]

The Mad Popes acquired elite CF Lou Bayou for eight lesser position players, only one of whom plays a premium position. They also acquired established SP Mario Reyes for four lesser starting pitchers, none yet in the big leagues.

Sacramento receives:

Lou Bayou, only 26 years old and Durable, is the reigning Yogi Zimmer Diamond Glove winner, the reigning Charles Puckett Gold Bat Award winner, AND the reigning stolen base champ. He plays the second scarcest position in the game. Scouts have him as an 80 overall player. He is under team control for two more seasons after this one, followed by a player option. He is Extremely Popular nationally and should boost Sacramento's fan interest.

Mario Reyes is a 25-year-old southpaw whom the Spuds acquired from Montreal in the Qutuz Mahdi trade in 2057. He is a solid starting pitcher with three above average pitches, including a plus-plus curveball. His fastball sits between 92-94 mph with sufficient movement to discourage hard contact. This season, he has started 18 games for the Spuds, going 9-7 with a 3.52 ERA (126 ERA+). He will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason.

Also included in the deal is journeyman 2B Lou Tinter, age 35. Age has begun to affect his range, and he profiles as an adequate defender of the keystone with a slightly negative zone rating.


Boise receives:

If there is a headliner going to Boise, I suppose that it would be left-handed first baseman / right fielder Jose Montoya. He was originally selected in the second round of the 2057 amateur draft by Sacramento. In his rookie season, he hit .320/.366/.596 with 4.7 WAR against right-handed pitching, but posted a -8.7 zone rating in right field. That same season saw him hit .210/.210/.403 in 62 plate appearances against southpaws; he has a major platoon factor and needs to be paired with a righty. He has struggled to replicate that success since. After two failed trips to the Mad Popes development lab to improve his defense in right field, he was moved to first base, where his defense is a work in progress. He projects as an average big league first baseman. Scouts had him as a 65 overall as a right fielder, but a 50 overall at first base.

The other 25-year-old position player headed to Boise is 25-year-old corner outfielder Tsutomu Yamauchi. Originally selected out of junior college in the first round of the 2055 amateur draft by Long Beach, he was dealt to Sacramento as part of the Carlos Flores trade. He's a jack of all trades and a master of none. He should hit well enough and field well enough to be an average major league regular in left field, but he is unlikely to be a star. Sacramento sent him to their development lab twice to improve his defense in left field, and the second time was the charm, with an outstanding result. He's almost fully developed, so his many negative intangibles should not be a major concern (low work ethic, low intelligence, low adaptability, low leader, and low loyalty). Scouts show him as a 55 overall with 60 potential.

Bob 'King of Swing' Hills is a 24-year-old left-handed center fielder who was a fifth round selection out of high school by Sacramento in the 2053 amateur draft. He is a capable defender who should hit at a roughly league average pace versus right-handed pitching. Like Montoya, Hills needs a platoon partner. He failed in his one pass through Sacramento's development lab to improve his defense in center field. Scouts rate him as a 50 overall as a center fielder.

The final big leaguer of the group is 35-year-old second baseman Ryan Geauxinue. He was originally selected in the first round of the 2045 amateur draft by Mexico City. He is nominally a switch hitter, but he is much more comfortable against right-handed pitching: 116 OPS+ lifetime vRHP but 91 OPS+ vLHP. He has one more year after this on his $7 million per year contract, but he's fading fast. Once a solid defender, he has recorded increasingly negative zone ratings over the last couple of seasons. His bat may not be far behind. Once an 80 overall, he is currently rated a 50 overall.

The best of the position prospects is 17-year-old Saleh bin Omran, who styles himself as a catcher. He is possessed of high intelligence and adaptability, so perhaps the Boise coaching staff can develop him into a serviceable catcher, but he currently rates 2 of a potential 4 at the position, with 5/5/6 blocking/framing/arm. His bat should play regardless of his position, with scouts projecting him with plus power and a plus-plus eye. His contact skills rate 5 across the board. He'll be promoted out of the international complex into rookie ball as part of the transaction, so he'll be thrown into the deep end right away. Scouts rate him 20 out of 50 as a catcher.

The other three position prospects are RF Carlos Diaz in Single-A (25/45), LF Bruno Gross in Short Season A (25/35), and 1B/DH Ya'qub bin Naim in the international complex (20/45).

The best of the four pitchers may be 21-year-old southpaw Felipe Ledesma (25/50), currently in Single-A. Possessed of three plus-plus pitches, he is projected to have 6 movement, 7 control, and 7 stamina. His 25 overall doesn't do him justice; I think he could easily conquer AA in his current stage of development. He projects as a mid-rotation starter who should arrive in 2063.

The most advanced of the pitchers is 25-year-old starting pitcher Tariku Jabiri (40/45). Currently in AAA after a cup of coffee with Sacramento last season, he features a six-pitch repertoire of mostly average to decent pitches. He has equally average-to-decent movement, control, and stamina. He projects as a back of the rotation starter who should arrive in 2062.

The other starting pitcher of the bunch is 20-year-old Rafael Garza (20/45), who like Ledesma, is in Single-A but should probably be in AA already. He throws three solid pitches, including a plus-plus fastball that sits around 96-98 mph. He is projected to have 5 movement, 6 control, and 6 stamina. He projects as a back of the rotation starter who should arrive in 2063, but might fill a bullpen role before that.

The last of the pitchers is 20-year-old Amelio Torrez (20/45), currently in Short Season A. He has an overpowering fastball that sits around 97-99 mph and a plus-plus cutter but his third pitch is a poor changeup. His pitches move well, but his control is poor and projected to be below average. He has a high work ethic but is not very bright. Boise's coaching staff will have their work cut out for them to mold him into a serviceable piece of the big league pitching staff. He could be a stopper for a second division team someday.

Summary

Boise sent one of the BBA's best players to Sacramento. In return, they received five first base/corner outfielders who are available on every street corner, a fading second baseman, a catcher-in-name-only, and a solid platoon center fielder.

Boise also sent their number two starting pitcher, receiving three future back-of-the-rotation starters and a flawed relief pitcher.

In my opinion, Sacramento won this trade going away.

[cheekimonk]

Wasn't that fun? Seriously, that's pretty spot on for the most likely analysis.

[BaseClogger]

I think you undersell Hills and it’s no joke Montoya posted all that WAR as a rookie but it’s fair to say Boise should have targeted more up the middle talent, especially since they did SAC a huge favor taking on the Goes In You contract.

[shoeless.db]

This is a fair assessment, but what was left out is important. Montoya, Yamauchi, and Hills put up 9.5 WAR last season as a group playing half their games in my ballpark. Both Montoya and Yamauchi are advance hitters with power. Sure, both are COF, but they are immediate younger upgrades for Boise. Hills, last season, posted 3.2 WAR and he did it in only 93 games.

This could be looked at as me trying to build the case for Ben or for my future trade partners, but there's a reason Yuu Suzuki went from being a great player last year to ridiculous this season after leaving SAC, especially in his power numbers. Montoya, Yamauchi, and Hills will thrive in the same way in Boise. An entire BBA-viable outfield is nothing to scoff at. I honestly feel he will make a solid run for a wildcard with those guys ranging in the outfield (and Hemming moving to DH with Pan platooning for Montoya).

Lastly, Ledesma will flat out be a better pitcher than Reyes. He throws harder, will have better stuff and control, and will be running through 500K seasons when Boise needs cheap arms to go along with their bats. And, like Reyes, he's a lefty. He was the gem of the Suzuki trade for good reason. If Reyes is a 60 OVR, Ledesma should have a 65 POT OVR already stamped to his player card. The current POT of 50 is simply OOTP being OOTP.

--

Do I love the trade for me? Yes. It was fun to put together such a massive trade, and Bayou is exactly the style of player I love. That's no secret.

For Ben's sake, please show me another organization willing to part with three young, productive BBA outfielders, three pitching prospects who you don't have to squint at to turn them into viable BBA starters (and who will immediately be Boise's #1, #3, and #4 pitching prospects), four above-average hitting prospects bats (the pseudo-catcher prospect could DH for any BBA team, if he develops; and Bin Naim could easily man third with one round of success in the dev lab), plus a reliever prospect with two plus pitches and good movement.

Four BBA quality players and eight better than AAAA-level prospects for one BBA quality SP, an aging mediocre BBA 2nd baseman, and one elite BBA centerfielder who is getting expensive and has a player option after two more seasons.

Currently, this is a win/win from any vantage point. Who knows what the future brings?

[BaseClogger]

Bayou already being expensive is important. I also don't think all that highly of Reyes (he will proceed to pitch a 2.50 ERA for SAC Mark Moore style).

[DugoutDesperado]

I felt like the analysis was great.

This trade is the BBA equivalent of the LA Rams/Detroit Lions trade made in the NFL. The Rams wanted a super bowl badly and was willing to trade a decent amount of their future for it. The Lions needed to build up some capital in their future draft picks.

The first year was a run away win for the Rams as they did indeed get their Super Bowl. Hopefully it will work out just as well for the Popes - barring a Miracle Mets comeback by Valencia.

But just as the Lions are capitalizing on the back half of the trade effects, Boise in one or two talent bumps from having a very good return. In my humble opinion anyway - but then again I haven't been in the playoffs since 2049 when I was in Jacksonville and have yet to win a playoff series - so take it for what it is worth.

[BaseClogger]

but then again I haven't been in the playoffs since 2049 when I was in Jacksonville and have yet to win a playoff series - so take it for what it is worth.

You need to find a way to get matched up with Vancouver in the Geoghegan round and take it to 5 games.

[BaseClogger]

Boise has an uphill climb to a wild card. Mexico City and Rocky Mountain look vulnerable but there are four teams in the Atlantic between them and that last spot. Montreal and Charlotte have been there before and are taking big swings to improve. While Brooklyn and Rockville have amassed some young talent.

[Dington]

For Ben's sake, please show me another organization willing to part with three young, productive BBA outfielders, three pitching prospects who you don't have to squint at to turn them into viable BBA starters (and who will immediately be Boise's #1, #3, and #4 pitching prospects), four above-average hitting prospects bats (the pseudo-catcher prospect could DH for any BBA team, if he develops; and Bin Naim could easily man third with one round of success in the dev lab), plus a reliever prospect with two plus pitches and good movement.

Don't you dare try to use logic. You pony up and pay the behemoth tax!


I like this trade from both sides, but not sure why Boise included Reyes. Bayou is gonna continue to get more expensive and will be difficult to maneuver around when the cap drop to $110M. In exchange, Ben got several players that should play in Boise. Would've liked to have seen a better position player in return, but a solid return. If Ben finds himself in a wildcard race, he can even flip a couple of them for a piece to push them into the playoffs and create some revenue.

[Knucklehead254]

but then again I haven't been in the playoffs since 2049 when I was in Jacksonville and have yet to win a playoff series - so take it for what it is worth.

You need to find a way to get matched up with Vancouver in the Geoghegan round and take it to 5 games.

Taking strays in Trade Analysis now

[Lane]

I'm with shoeless here, i think this is a lot closer of a trade than being presented here

[shoeless.db]

I like this trade from both sides, but not sure why Boise included Reyes.

We couldn't come up with a deal for Bayou alone. Adding Reyes pushed me into including Ledesma and Garza.

[Bob Breum]

As a rule of thumb, I will always gladly accept a trade in which I receive quality and part with quantity of lesser quality.

You can look at this as 80 + 60 + 45 for 65 + 60 + 55 + 3 x 50 + 5 x 45 + 35. You can do some algebra and reduce it to 80 for 65 + 55 + 3 x 50 + 4 x 45 + 35. All else being equal, I will take the 80 side of that equation every time. Now consider that the 80 is a CF and it's not close.

This is a superstar in his prime who is Durable and is an elite defender at a premium position. He is not a rental. There are no red flags.

Please feel free to offer me your superstars for a dozen assorted non-stars. I am here for it. We will make it happen.

[Bob Breum]

I think you undersell Hills.

Bob Hills is Still the King

[ae37jr]

The haul is definitely quantity over quality, which will immediately turn off some. Boise got a depth of BBA ready talent over the illusive blue chip prospect.

I like the trade for Sacramento cause they have the depth and are getting a premium player in his prime but,..... I also like the trade for Boise because I feel Bayou is at peak value. His 2 elite traits are range and batting average. I feel like those generally don't age well. Take away one and he is a good, not great player. Take away both and he is an albatross. In 2064 I can see a scenario where he is 8 range and 7 contact. A nice corner OF, but not worth $15 mil. Maybe Sacramento is coming off 4 Brewsters and it doesn't matter. But it will change the perspective of the Boise end.

[BaseClogger]

Bayou just turned 26. I don’t get all the doom and gloom of him lumping in the next couple years.

[lordtoffee]

This seems like it’s a pretty solid move for both sides. I would t be surprised to see Boise take some of the return and use it in a package to get someone.

[RonCo]

http://montybrewster.net/forums/viewtop ... 95&t=52545

[Lane]

As a rule of thumb, I will always gladly accept a trade in which I receive quality and part with quantity of lesser quality.

You can look at this as 80 + 60 + 45 for 65 + 60 + 55 + 3 x 50 + 5 x 45 + 35. You can do some algebra and reduce it to 80 for 65 + 55 + 3 x 50 + 4 x 45 + 35. All else being equal, I will take the 80 side of that equation every time. Now consider that the 80 is a CF and it's not close.

This is a superstar in his prime who is Durable and is an elite defender at a premium position. He is not a rental. There are no red flags.

Please feel free to offer me your superstars for a dozen assorted non-stars. I am here for it. We will make it happen.

I think this is odd and overly simplistic way to look at this. OOTP is notoriously bad at assigning appropriate overall ratings, and I feel like it's even worse in 25

[Trebro]

I personally think trying to determine who won a trade this early is not very productive. Especially when we have no idea how players are going to turn out. If Boise gets boosts and the Popes mope, Ben wins. Strike that reverse it and Doug is on top, which he's very unused to if I understand it right from his wife.

Analysis of what they stand to gain/lose makes sense but all of us have a ton of players who radically changed for good or ill. With so many players here it's just not practical to pick a side.