Off Topic
Or, What is OBP?
April 25, 2061: Forever Land, Tiki Hut #1 – (Notes From Ron Collins’s journal)
As I’m sitting here watching the draft do a slow roll, and pretending to get some writing done, I am tempted to scan a few stat sheets. What I find makes me blanch. At least it does at first. This is because my gaze falls on one Phil Tatham. Here are his ratings:
Bottom line, he really should be able to contribute. Sure, the defense is a bit of an eyesore, but here in Bikini he almost looks like a Zimmer guy in comparison. I’m not talking superstar, but sure, as long as we can keep him from running much, the guy should make some hay someplace.
Here are his stats so far:
Enigma wrapped
in a conundrumDon’t know about you, but the first thing my eye hits on is that he’s hitting .091. Yes. I know. Sample size. But, still.
.091.
[ASIDE: FWIW, if Tatham is really a semi-pedestrian .250 hitter, there is roughly a 17% chance that he would start at .091 in his 11 AB]
Anyway, the next thing is that my eyes scan across to see the following: WAR = -.1, wRC+ = 85, BABIP = .167. Next I scan around and see he’s had bits of three seasons in the BBA now, and while they only add up to about 80 PA, those numbers have been “consistent” in their badness.
Finally, after only all of that, do I force my thoughts to the one column that looks…well, it looks pretty danged good. Phil Tatham has had 17 trips to the plate this year and has not made an out in seven of them. That “9” Eye rating has generated six walks to go with his lone base hit. It adds up to an On Base Percentage of .412.
Does anybody remember Moneyball?
Scanning up, I see his 52 PA in Vegs two years back resulted in a .167 BA, but a .308 OBP. That’s a huge gap, just like his current .091/.412. I mean. Huge. Where is his “9” I think? Is it basically a low “10?” And if so, what happens if his true “5/5” contact/power is enough to fulfill that 15 HR/.250 (or even .260) kind of production? If so, that .400 OBP (or more) is a thing. And if that’s true, then Phil Tatham is a great thing…a star that flies under the radar screen.
Scanning into his minor leagues, I see his last “full” year in AAA (when he was 22 or23) brought him a .316/.434 BA/OBP pairing, and that this pairing stepped up each of the three years he was in AAA, showing growth under the hood.
I sigh.
I think Phil Tatham has value, but he’s the kind of guy who, if you’re going to find it, just needs to be set in place and let be. That’s annoying. I suppose I could be wrong, but it is what it is. So the question is really not “Is Phil Tatham valuable?” It is, instead, “How much do I want to find out?”
April 25, 2061: Forever Land, Tiki Hut #1 – (Notes From Ron Collins’s journal)
As I’m sitting here watching the draft do a slow roll, and pretending to get some writing done, I am tempted to scan a few stat sheets. What I find makes me blanch. At least it does at first. This is because my gaze falls on one Phil Tatham. Here are his ratings:
| Phil Tatham (LF) | Age | OVR | CON | BABIP | AvK | GAP | POW | EYE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level: AAA | 25 | 45/45 | 5/6 | 5/5 | 6/6 | 6/6 | 5/5 | 8/8 |
| Age: 25 | * | IFR | IFE | IFA | TDP | OFR | OFE | OFA |
| Bats-Throws: R/R | * | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Height: 6'0" | * | SPD | AGR | STE | RUN | CBK | CFR | CAR |
| Weight: 180 | * | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Source: TR (LV) |
Here are his stats so far:
| Age | G | AB | H | 2B/3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | HP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | .091 | .412 | .091 | .503 | 50 | 85 | -0.1 |
Enigma wrapped
in a conundrum
.091.
[ASIDE: FWIW, if Tatham is really a semi-pedestrian .250 hitter, there is roughly a 17% chance that he would start at .091 in his 11 AB]
Anyway, the next thing is that my eyes scan across to see the following: WAR = -.1, wRC+ = 85, BABIP = .167. Next I scan around and see he’s had bits of three seasons in the BBA now, and while they only add up to about 80 PA, those numbers have been “consistent” in their badness.
Finally, after only all of that, do I force my thoughts to the one column that looks…well, it looks pretty danged good. Phil Tatham has had 17 trips to the plate this year and has not made an out in seven of them. That “9” Eye rating has generated six walks to go with his lone base hit. It adds up to an On Base Percentage of .412.
Does anybody remember Moneyball?
Scanning up, I see his 52 PA in Vegs two years back resulted in a .167 BA, but a .308 OBP. That’s a huge gap, just like his current .091/.412. I mean. Huge. Where is his “9” I think? Is it basically a low “10?” And if so, what happens if his true “5/5” contact/power is enough to fulfill that 15 HR/.250 (or even .260) kind of production? If so, that .400 OBP (or more) is a thing. And if that’s true, then Phil Tatham is a great thing…a star that flies under the radar screen.
Scanning into his minor leagues, I see his last “full” year in AAA (when he was 22 or23) brought him a .316/.434 BA/OBP pairing, and that this pairing stepped up each of the three years he was in AAA, showing growth under the hood.
I sigh.
I think Phil Tatham has value, but he’s the kind of guy who, if you’re going to find it, just needs to be set in place and let be. That’s annoying. I suppose I could be wrong, but it is what it is. So the question is really not “Is Phil Tatham valuable?” It is, instead, “How much do I want to find out?”
