| Season | Wins | RS | RA | RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2057 | 85 | 858 | 771 | +87 |
| 2058 | 91 | 841 | 772 | +69 |
| 2059 | 72 | 780 | 841 | -61 |
LINEUP
Last season they scored 61 fewer runs than the year before. Catcher, shortstop, and the infield corners contributed well, but second base was a black hole and the outfield was not great. Ranked in descending order based on last season, let’s examine the roster:
Their most productive hitter, 32-year-old third baseman Félix Parreno, opted out of his contract after the season, and chose to return home to Des Moines, taking his 4.4 WAR with him. The once almighty Ángel Zalapa, now 44 and in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career, will shift down the defensive spectrum once again, moving from second base to take over the hot corner. Last season was a disaster, hitting .216/280/.343 (65 OPS+) in 134 games while logging a -9.6 zone rating at the keystone, resulting in -1.6 WAR. In this final season of his glorious career, is there anything left in the tank? It seems unlikely. I fear that his negative net WAR will follow him to 3B.
First baseman Keith Kerfoot returns. He hit .296/339/.541 with 33 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 36 attempts, good for 3.6 WAR. He is also a plus-plus defender at first base. He’s Durable and should repeat his fine season.
Unfortunately, 32-year-old shortstop Niaz Minhas also opted out, leaving for San Fernando and taking his 2.7 WAR with him. Taking over for Minhas is the 36-year-old Jorge Gallegos. He’s a very poor hitter and a roughly league-average defender at shortstop. I don’t believe that last season’s 81 OPS+ is repeatable. I’d project about a net 1.0 WAR.
Catcher is a bright spot. Justin Bonfield. He was second in the league in framing runs at +16.1. He hit a respectable .240/.324/.383 (88 OPS+) for a solid defensive catcher, earning 2.5 WAR. I predict some regression, but he should be worth about 2 WAR.
Center fielder Pael Millares returns to patrol center field. He logged 1.5 WAR last season, providing near-league average offense (90 OPS+) and near-league average defense (+2.7 ZR). Expect more of the same.
Last season, the corner outfield spots were manned by Anurodha Nayar, Andrew Wright, and Feng-yi Fung. Fung started 151 games in right field, posting a -8.4 zone rating and netting 0.2 WAR. Nayar and Wright each started about a third of the season in left field. Wright hit for a league average 101 OPS+, earning 0.7 WAR, and was also about league average on defense, but he was released after the season. Nayar hit .271/.350/.536 (131 OPS+), also played roughly league average defense, and earned 0.8 WAR. All told, a total of less than 2 WAR was posted in the two corner outfield spots. This season, Nayar is moving over to right field and could be good for 2.5 WAR in a full season there. 27-year-old Michael O’Halloran is set to play left field. His contact skills leave much to be desired, but he has plus power and an ever better batting eye. He’s still getting better, so Phoenix is betting on youthful growth here. I’ll project 2.0 WAR and thus 4.5 WAR combined WAR in the corners.
Last season’s designated hitter, Ernie McBride, is gone after his contract was not extended. He hit .268/329/.500 with 28 home runs and earned 1.8 WAR. Joseph Mother will now play DH full time. He’ll probably contribute a bit more than McBride. I’ll project a 0.5 WAR increase here.
Last but not least, we have second base. This was Zalapa’s home last season, but this year will see Miguel Martínez man the keystone. Martinez, a Gold Glover and former All-Star, is finally recovered from post-concussion syndrome that sidelined him most of least season with Montreal. His glove will be a welcome addition. If his bat returns to his pre-2059 form when he hit 30-40 home runs per season, he’ll be a huge upgrade. I’ll project 3.5 WAR, plus or minus 1.5.
The 2059 Talons managed 16.9 WAR from their lineup. Given the loss of Parreno and Minhas, the addition of Martinez and O’Halloran basically cancel out. I think their lineup will again produce around 17 WAR in 2060.
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PITCHING STAFF
The 2059 pitching performance was historically bad, accruing only 10.7 WAR. It was the worst Talons pitching since 2041, almost two decades ago.
The top two members of the rotation are returning. Nick Rivers went 13-13 in 33 starts, with a 4.26 ERA earning 3.2 WAR. Southpaw Damian Theophanous finished 7-13 in 33 starts with a 4.22 ERA, good for 2.7 WAR. The rest of last season’s starts were distributed among half a dozen others. Three of them were released, two are moving to the bullpen, and the other, Tian-bai Chio started 15 games, going 2-3 with a 6.04 ERA for -0.3 WAR.
Joining the rotation are free agent signee Takehide Gertrudes and trade acquisition Waseem bin Suhayb. Gertrudes started 27 games for Yellow Springs last season, going 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA, earning 2.5 WAR. Bin Suhayb worked as a swing man for Boise, throwing 91 innings with a 6.11 ERA while accruing 0.6 WAR.
Gertrudes certainly bolsters the rotation, but the other two starters may contribute less WAR than their 2059 rotation by committee counterparts. Last year’s rotation earned roughly 8.3 WAR and I project this year’s edition to be about the same.
The bullpen returns largely unchanged. Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile, so we could see significant variation, but odds are that its contribution to pitching WAR won’t change much.
SUMMARY
The offense saw the departure of Parreno and Minhas. Martinez should help offset their loss, but there is no reason to see anything other than random variation over last year’s group.
The pitching staff added a solid starter but lost several pitchers who contributed over the course of the season without a clear replacement in hand. With the bullpen unchanged, pitching WAR, like offensive WAR, will vary with the whims of the random number generator, but shows no significant upward or downward trend.
Total WAR should stay roughly the same. I project 75 wins, in line with last season’s Pythagorean result.
