| Season | Wins | RS | RA | RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2056 | 90 | 804 | 710 | +94 |
| 2057 | 73 | 738 | 776 | -38 |
| 2058 | 82 | 757 | 753 | +4 |
| 2059 | 78 | 720 | 731 | -11 |
Last season saw their worst run production since the 2053 season. Their middle infield was a black hole. Left field and designated hitter, traditional offensive positions, contributed little. Ranked in descending order, let’s examine the roster:
All-Star center fielder Lou Bayou is the super star, hitting .324 and leading the league in stolen bases for the second consecutive season with 72. He’s an elite defender as well, logging a zone rating of +14.4 in his 143 starts. He accrued 5.7 WAR, which is over a third of the team’s total offensive WAR.
Catcher Sergei Bobrovsky was solid behind the plate in his 123 starts, with a roughly league average OPS+ of 102 (very good for a decent catcher) and plus framing skills contributing almost 3 WAR. Marcus Farrow was a solid backup catcher in his 32 starts, contributing another 0.8 WAR to make this the squad’s second best position. The 33-year-old Bobrovsky saw a drop in power from 8 to 7 late last season and may see a dip in his production next season.
First base is a platoon, with the LH Pedro Hozven and the RH Tracy Allison. Hozven managed a 109 OPS+ versus right-handed pitching – not what you want from your first baseman. The speedy young Allison hit for a 108 OPS+ in 47 starts, but also stole 21 of 23 bases. He earned more WAR in his third of the at-bats than Hozven did in his two-thirds. Allison has no significant platoon factor. Perhaps it’s time for a full-time role for Tracy? He might be worth 3 WAR if he plays 150 games.
Third base yielded about 1 WAR last season. The plan is to install free agent signee Abu Wamukota at the hot corner. He has a cannon arm that helps offset his lack of range. He is an above average hitter with plus-plus speed on the basepaths, even at 37 years old. Last season he stole 33 bases. Barring a sudden age-related decline, he could put up 2.5 WAR.
Right field is a platoon of LH Martin Hemming and RH rookie Cosmo Pan. The 34-year-old Hemming was slightly above league average at the plate (105 OPS+). That, combined with decent defense, yielded 2.2 WAR, which was third best on team. Pan, 24, possesses plus power and eye with average contact and should meet or exceed Hemming’s offensive production. This duo should be good for 2.5-3.0 WAR, a slight increase over last year.
Per-Johan Mikkelsson, only 22, will move from DH to left field to allow Sebastian Fradesso a place in the lineup. Fradesso played full time corner outfield last season, but his defense collapsed during the offseason. Mikkelsson is a poor outfielder, but his young legs make him the better choice of the two. He possesses a plus-plus hit tool with plus gap power, but a below average batting eye. He hit .282 with 46 doubles, 18 home runs, and 103 RBIs last season, but still finished with a below league average OPS+. All those glossy numbers were only worth 0.2 WAR. Perhaps it was his 104 strikeouts against only 21 walks. He’s young with only the one season in the big leagues, so I would expect some improvement in his offensive production. My concern is that his poor defense will cancel it out. I’d be surprised if there is an improvement here over last season’s 1 WAR at the position.
Fradesso will play DH, replacing Mikkelsson. Last season Fradesso only managed 1.0 WAR, despite an .804 OPS with 20 home runs and 34 stolen bases. That is because his defense largely offset his offensive production. If he can duplicate last year’s production, he should be worth closer to 2 WAR, which would certainly be an improvement.
Second base was a revolving door last season, yielding essentially zero WAR. This season the rookie Fernando Segura will be manning the keystone. Last season in AAA, Segura hit .322/.398/.436 with a +7.5 zone rating, good for 2.4 WAR. Moving up to the big leagues will cut that down some, but I think 2 WAR is a reasonable expectation.
Shortstop belongs to Dan Raymond, who is an elite defender who posted a +17 zone rating last season. Unfortunately, Raymond cannot hit his way out of a paper bag. Last season, after the great OOTP 24-25 conversion, his BABIP of 4 really hit hard, especially combined with 4 gap and 3 power. He hit .189 with a 39 OPS+, cancelling out every bit of his hard-earned fielding WAR. He struck out more often than he got a hit. As bad as that sounds, the left-handed hitting Raymond was even worse against southpaws, hitting .172. Sadly, he is a replacement level player with his net zero WAR. He is slated to return as the starting shortstop.
Totaling up the above, we expect to see some improvement at first base, second base, third base, and DH, with some possible regression from catcher and perhaps center field. I’ll project an optimistic +5 WAR improvement on last season’s 16.3 WAR.
PITCHING STAFF
The pitching staff has been in steady decline since their last playoff appearance. Pitching WAR has declined from 17.6 in 2056 to 13.4 in 2057 to 9.6 in 2058, and 10.3 last season.
Last season’s starters accrued about 9 WAR, led by ace Doug Eckhoff’s 2.8 WAR (6.1 rWAR). Eckhoff posted an 11-10 record, with a 3.20 ERA. Mario Reyes, a 24-year-old southpaw in his second season, finished 12-13 with a 4.57 ERA, good for 2.1 WAR (2.6 rWAR). The veteran Marvin Winston went 13-9 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.9 WAR (2.1 rWAR). All three return. The other two starters last season, Waseem bin Suhayb and Danny Leach, are not returning. Bin Sahayb, 6-4, 6.11 ERA, 0.6 WAR (-0.4 rWAR) was traded to Phoenix. The 40-year-old Leach, 9-11, 4.04 ERA, 1.7 WAR (3.7 rWAR), retired.
Joining the 2060 rotation are free agent signees Mahad Einan, who was 15-8 with Las Vegas last season with a 4.68 ERA and 2.5 WAR (2.8 rWAR) and Robert Hanson, who was 13-9 with Sacramento last season with a 3.30 ERA and 2.6 WAR (4.9 rWAR).
Jeremy Nickerson, only 26, will return to the rotation after last season’s injury-ridden campaign, displacing Winston, but Nickerson is Wrecked and may miss significant time again this season. In the 2058 season, Nickerson went 10-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 18 starts, good for 1.1 WAR.
Adding up last season’s production for Eckhoff, Reyes, Einan, and Hanson, it totals 10 WAR. Add another 2 WAR for Nickerson/Winston, and you arrive at 12 WAR. That’s a major increase from last season’s 9 WAR.
The bullpen is anchored by Paul Cherry (3.38 ERA, 29 shutdowns, 17 holds, 11 saves, 0.8 WAR), Juan Guzmán (4.24 ERA, 11 shutdowns, 0.6 WAR), Mike Alexander (3.64 ERA, 0.7 WAR), and closer Samir Qasim (4.18 WAR, 25 shutdowns, 30 saves, 0 WAR).
Let’s figure about 2 WAR from the pen.
The pitching staff looks to improve to about 13.3 WAR, up from 10.3.
SUMMARY
Boise made significant additions to their ballclub in the offseason. They signed free agents 3B Abu Wamukota, SP Mahad Einan, SP Robert Hanson. They’ve called up rookies 2B Fernando Segura and OF Cosmo Pan to boost their lineup. They lost only one player of note, SP Danny Leach, who retired.
I estimate a net gain of about 8 WAR. This should boost them from 78 to 86 wins and facilitate a return to the postseason.
