"The Favorite Toy"

YouTube · Post by **recte44** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:56 pm

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames

blake · Post by **blake** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:24 pm

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4 more years, at an average of 212.5 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 3078 for his career.

I did it on hits for Rafael Rodriguez. Hes going to make it it looks like.

blake · Post by **blake** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:29 pm

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 7.5 more years, at an average of 38 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 457 for his career.

HR's for Niguel Halime. I'm surprised it's that high.

jumpmancol · Post by **jumpmancol** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:48 am

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 9 more years, at an average of 90 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 1323 for his career.

SB's for Armando Santo...

blake · Post by **blake** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:15 am

jumpmancol wrote:Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 9 more years, at an average of 90 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 1323 for his career.

SB's for Armando Santo...

Jesus Christ. Santos is the Messiah of the MBWBA. lol

7teen · Post by **7teen** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:42 am

Great tool. I've used it a few times, most recently when trying to see the chances of Marco breaking the saves record.

jumpmancol · Post by **jumpmancol** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:25 am

Yeah, he is pretty studly. Now that his power is taking off, I wanna run it again in a year or two to see where he lands with HR's, RBI, R, H's...see how many records he can challenge

jcrmoon42 · Post by **jcrmoon42** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:26 pm

Only problem with the Toy in our context is that player aging is not necessarily accurately represented in OOTP. In the Toy, a 30 year old player is assumed to have 6 full seasons left. That is not necessarily the case here. It very well may be the case. We just don't have definitive information.

jcrmoon42 · Post by **jcrmoon42** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:21 pm

blake wrote:
Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4 more years, at an average of 212.5 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 3078 for his career.
I did it on hits for Rafael Rodriguez. Hes going to make it it looks like.

Boy, I'll say! At this time, Rodriguez had a 20% chance of getting to his final actual career total of 3520. He really continued to play well in his late 30s, and I guess that's what you have to do to beat the odds.

jcrmoon42 · Post by **jcrmoon42** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:22 pm

blake wrote:
Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 7.5 more years, at an average of 38 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 457 for his career.
HR's for Niguel Halime. I'm surprised it's that high.

Favorite Toy nailed this one. Halime actually played 8 more years and finished with 446 homers.

jcrmoon42 · Post by **jcrmoon42** » Mon Sep 09, 2013 1:28 pm

jumpmancol wrote:Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 9 more years, at an average of 90 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 1323 for his career.

SB's for Armando Santo...

At the time, Santos was 24 and coming off seasons of 96 and 102 steals. He was a monster. Unfortunately, he only had 3 more seasons of 50 or more steals. By the time he was 30, he wasn't much of a hitter anymore, further killing his opportunities. He is still playing occasionally for Greenville now and has 821 steals. At the time, he had a 97% chance at getting at least 1090 steals. I'm guessing perhaps speed doesn't project as well as hitting.

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