If you’ve listened to any of the various podcasts I’ve done, you have, by now heard me say something in the range of “I hate overall ratings” enough times. Still, there’s always room for one more, I figured, so what the hell, right?
First, a little process junk: Last night, for giggles, I grabbed a view in OOTP and exported out all of our ratings (1-10 scale, plus a bunch of other stuff—specifically including overalls. Then, after deciding to focus on pitchers for this one, and after stripping out potential info, I was left with every pitcher in the league. This I cut into a couple different segments—specifically “all SP” and “all relievers with 10 Stuff” (note the “10 Stuff” was a random thing). At that point, I then sorted each into ratings blocks by Stu/MOV/CON pairings—then these parings were sorted by OVR.
In other words, I ended up with the ability to put equally rated STU/MOV/CON pitchers together and see how their OVR varied.
I’ll add the two splits as a stand-alone spreadsheet at the end of this rock so you can play with the process yourself. And most likely I’ll be posting follow on cuts in different ways over the next few days.
That said, I’ll do a few cuts here.
For example:
Let’s Look at some 10/5/7 Relievers
I chose this block for a could reasons. First, there are no YS9 pitchers in here, so I can look at them “objectively.” In addition, it was the first grouping of pitchers that had enough sample size that it spanned FOUR rating points. (There are pitchers in this segment who score 35, 40, 45, and 50 in OVERALL Rating)
Here are the pitchers:
Can you see why I hate Overall Ratings here? I mean…
Compare Aurelio Castillo (35) with Mitch Freeman (50), and you see two power pitchers with three pitches that are all pretty danged good. The only difference is that Freeman throws two MPH faster, and Castillo is an over the top fly ball pitcher. I note, though, that Castillo controls the running game at an elite level, while the barn door is always open for Freeman. Is the two MPH difference (from 99-101?) worth 15 overall points? Is it the FB thing? If so, other than Castillo’s very brief stint in the bigs, there’s nothing in his numbers to say his “5” movement is any worse than Freeman’s.
And, if you say, yeah, two MPH is worth 15 rating points in OVERALL, well, whot do you make when you compare Castillo to Portland’s Faical Engeitado? Engitaido tops out at 93 MPH and his repertoire would seem to pale in comparison to Castillo’s. Engeitado is a lefty sidearm thrower with good splits. Perhaps that’s bump-worthy, but three notches? 15 points?
Play the same game with Charlotte’s Robert Hobbs—who blazes at 101 MPH and has a four-pitch arsenal.
Bottom line: if all these guys were within a rating of each other, I could see it. But they get spread over four total ratings…which makes me scratch my head.
Perhaps it’s more interesting to look at the common elements here—the three guys in the list who are all rated 45s? I’ll do that later, too—or even go further and collect up all 45s (or whatever) and see what that pile looks like in total. Or you can. Feel free…
Now Let’s Look at a Couple Starters
Personally, I find looking at starters to be more interesting by comparing across different rating segments, and I’ll probably do that a little later, but while we’re on this process, let’s look at an interesting pair.
Madison’s 25-yo Yorikane Miyamoto (55) matches with New Orleans’ Cristian Garcia (65). If you looked at their ERAs you’d probably say that makes sense—but compare FIPs and WARs and you get a different feel. Until this past season, when Miyamoto seemed to implode, the two were quite similar.
Which makes sense when I scan the components.
I mean…both are young, both throw pretty hard and have better than 3-pitch repertoires. Both deal with the running game. Both go medium deep into games. Does the velocity bump account for the overall rating delta? I dunno, but I don’t think it should. I mean, looking at these two pitcher’s I’d value them about evenly all other things considered. Put them behind the same defenses and in the same ballparks and I’d expect a similar performance. But the game says one is 55 and the other 65. Am I the crazy one? Possibly.
Anyway, my morning time is up, so I’ll stop here…but more to come … maybe. (grin)
