This is part 2 of an 8 part series.Editor's note...There was a prior error in this that was discovered through conversation on slack. Basically RC/27 is a “lineup stat” so ZR needed to be multiplied by 9 as well. So here we are at new numbers and a new analysis!
In case you haven’t read part 1 (Catcher’s Edition) there is a recap of what exactly I am doing and why at the bottom of this post.
We are going to move right along and take a look at the first baseman. All first baseman who are qualified batters, meaning 3.1 at-bats per team game are going to be included in this analysis. If you are a team who has a platoon, you are likely out of luck and will have to do the math yourself as you won’t find your players on this list.
First Baseman by Net Runs Created this season.
First Baseman Averages:
The Best: Larry Stinson (San Antonio)
What a rookie debut for Stinson. According to these calculations, Stinson is the most valuable first baseman in the league based on net runs created. His 6.2 WAR obviously backs that up. Stinson is on a pace to account for nearly 132 runs more than the average first baseman in the league, and an astonishing 346 runs more than the worst first baseman in the league.
Behind Stinson, you have 3 guys that are in the 110-120 range for net runs created from Las Vegas, Edmonton, and Calgary before there is a steep steep drop off all the way down into the 70’s.
These 4 guys are clearly head above shoulders the rest of the league’s first baseman, and the scary thing is that the top 3 are all 21 years old so they likely aren’t fully developed players.
It’s an odd breakdown as you have 7 guys sitting to finish with 55 more runs created than the average first baseman, you have 13 guys who are either going to finish in the range of a positive or negative 30 runs created and then you have a group of 10 guys who are underperforming when compared to their peers and are going to finish with at least 30 fewer runs created than average.
With first base typically a position that many feel they can fill easily, maybe it’s worth pointing out that you shouldn’t just stick anyone over there. First base is typically a depth filled position, but with a clear top tier and upper tier emerging maybe that should be reconsidered.
The Worst:
I mentioned there are 13 guys who are going to finish with at least 30 runs created for the season than the average first baseman, and probably the one who stuck out like a sore thumb the most is Ellis Curran. Curran, who is with Valencia, is on pace for a negative 214.05 runs created. What that essentially means, is that if everybody had a team full of just their first baseman, meaning your first baseman was your 1-9 hitters in your lineup, The team full of Curran’s would score 214 runs less than the average team in the BBA.
The scariest part might be that 7 first baseman are on pace for at least a negative 40 runs scored. You can attribute the top tier as being so powerful they are driving up the average numbers for the first baseman, but even still, this gives a clear picture of just how bad some of the first basemen have been offensive with their glove not saving their runs accounted for. Jose Estrada in Seattle is a great example of this. His 3.4 ZR tells me that he is pretty good in the field, but his 4.4 runs created per 27 outs is 2.25 less than the average first baseman. That is over 56 fewer runs created in the course of the season, and only 3.4 runs saved for a net of negative 26 runs scored than the average first baseman this year.
Anyhow, the link for the spreadsheet to see the report is below, feel free to take a look and I will be adding new positions each day this week as we attempt to analyze offense vs defense from this point of view. I hope everyone enjoys this, and if not, then tough shit I guess because I am going to be doing it for the next 7 days.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=sharing
For those wondering, I used 7 games for the average amount of games it takes a good hitter to get 27 outs. 162 divided by7 games is roughly 23 games per season. I took the runs created per 27 outs and multiplied by 23 to get the average season runs created.
When looking at offensive stats for players, the greenest of fans look at batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. These stats are typically used because that is what people are used to seeing when watching ESPN or looking at the box scores in the newspaper. However, as we know these are far from even being important and most are reliant on other members of your team to accomplish. For instance, you can’t have a ton of RBI if your teammates aren’t getting on base, likewise, you can’t score 100 runs if your teammates can’t hit you around.
In comes the stats of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and for pitchers FIP. I am going to dive a bit further after doing some reading on one stat that caught my eye and specifically made me question a few things.
That stat is Runs Created. My first thought was simply what the hell is that? Ron did a good job of explaining it on slack the other day to the group who didn’t know (which was basically just me), as there were some debates over the “who is more valuable” type guys which I appreciate as much as anyone.
So just what is a run created?
Basically it looks at the following linear weights (relative to outs)
It takes all of these and basically accounts for how many runs did that player truly produce during the season with no other factors attributing to it such as teammates' performance. It is a pretty accurate measure, as if you take your entire team’s RC, it typically hits the number within 5% of your runs scored during the season.
So now here is where it gets a bit interesting and what had me thinking.
Obviously a great defensive glove in the league is a coveted thing for many people, but at what point does the defensive player actually hurt that team based on his batting ability? The same goes for offense, how well does an offensive bat have to be in order to deal with poor defense? If a player has as a -10 ZR but is generating 45 more runs that season than the average at that position, then that is a player who obviously is very valuable despite his glove.
This feature is going to take a look day by day at each position showcasing who truly has been the top player at each position, all the way down to the worst player for that position. In order to qualify as a position player, you must be a qualified batter, meaning 3.1 at-bats per game. The only exception to this is going to be the catcher position because of obvious reasons. For the catcher position, I will grab anybody who has at least 200 at-bats this season.
For those who have played multiple positions, it is going to be the cumulative ZR, and they will be grouped by their natural position (whatever they are set at in the game).
