Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

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Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:13 am

I had some time on my hands, so I decided I would take a look at my team totals spreadsheet and figure out various top/bottom 20 lists for each of the various stats in preparation for next years media guide. Since I had the data and we are roughly at the halfway point of the season, I figured I would take a look at some of the various records and determine which ones are likely to go down in the near future, and which ones are safe. Listed below is the record holder for each category, the 2nd place total (for context) as well as the closest team to breaking the record in the last 5 years to give an idea of how modern teams are doing. There is a clear separation between the top 2 records and then everyone else, with #1 being a clear such a clear winner that league sliders were adjusted as a result of this era. I have added comments to each, but please feel free to add your own as well, and as always disagreements are welcome as after all, this list is subjective in nature.

POST 1995 SEASONS ONLY

1: STOLEN BASES
• RECORD: 2032 Brooklyn Robins (484)
• 2ND PLACE: 2033 Brooklyn Robins (413)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2037 Madison Wolves (296)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Las Vegas Hustlers (265/T54th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 295
• COMMENTS: Top 35 Performances from 2031-2035, no team over 300 outside of that window

2: STRIKEOUTS
• RECORD: 2035 Mexico City Aztecs (692)
• 2ND PLACE: 2012 Montreal Blazers (748)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2038 Rockville Pikemen (820)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Mexico City Aztecs (968/T106th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 116
• COMMENTS: Style of play has shifted dramatically, strikeouts far more common even for high contact teams

3: HOME RUNS
• RECORD: 2037 San Fernando Bears (365)
• 2ND PLACE: 2041 Valencia Stars (323)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Valencia Stars (323)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Valencia Stars (319/3rd)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 185
• COMMENTS: Increased offensive focus has mainly been on doubles and triples, no team over 280 prior to 2034

4: WALKS
• RECORD: 2011 Long Beach Surfers (854)
• 2ND PLACE: 2012 Long Beach Surfers (835)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 San Fernando Bears (753)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: San Fernando Bears (752/4th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 184
• COMMENTS: Fairly well balanced across history (top 20 breakdown 8x 2000s, 4x 2010s, 1x 2020s, 4x 2030s, 3x 2040s), but two Long Beach seasons clearly above the rest

5: SINGLES
• RECORD: 1996 Baltimore Monarchs (1307)
• 2ND PLACE: 2034 Rockville Pikemen (1292)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Edmonton Jackrabbits (1140)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (1123/T91st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 189
• COMMENTS: Modern offensive focus on EBH comes at expense of singles, only 2 performances in last decade in top 50 all time

6: AVG
• RECORD: 2002 Montreal Blazers (.313)
• 2ND PLACE: 2031 Montreal Blazers (.311)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2038 Rockville Pikemen (.306)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (.303/T9th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: N/A
• COMMENTS: Current lack of pitching makes this possible, but increased strikeout rates reduce balls put in play enough to kick this down the possibility a few notches.

7: HITS
• RECORD: 2003 Montreal Blazers (1819)
• 2ND PLACE: 2002 Montreal Blazers (1815)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2038 Rockville Pikemen (1745)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (1757/T10th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 168
• COMMENTS: Similar comments as singles, however sheer volume of EBH and dearth of pitching makes this slightly more likely.

8: TRIPLES
• RECORD: 2041 Louisville Sluggers (82)
• 2ND PLACE: 2041 Yellow Springs Nine/2010 Atlantic City Gamblers (70)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Yellow Springs Nine (70)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (74/2nd)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 180
• COMMENTS: Dramatic outlier season to set record, lower raw totals mean even in EBH happy environment of current BBA, tougher to increase totals.

9: SLG
• RECORD: 2037 San Fernando Bears (.530)
• 2ND PLACE: 2038 Jacksonville Hurricanes (.509)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2038 Jacksonville Hurricanes (.509)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Atlantic City Gamblers (.536/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: N/A
• COMMENTS: All top 10 performances in last 5 years, more likely than HR record because of dramatic increase in 2B/3B.

10: OBP
• RECORD: 2011 Long Beach Surfers (.383)
• 2ND PLACE: 2009 Long Beach Surfers (.382)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Edmonton Jackrabbits (.380)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (.375/T6th)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: N/A
• COMMENTS: Current offensive environment possible, however not as many teams capable between balance of AVG/walks required, most focus on one over the other

11: OPS
• RECORD: 2037 San Fernando Bears (.893)
• 2ND PLACE: 2041 Rockville Pikemen (.876)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Rockville Pikemen (.876)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (.894/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: N/A
• COMMENTS: Current EBH totals increase chance for record, however sheer HR total of 2037 Bears make this record tougher than some of the others.

12: TOTAL BASES
• RECORD: 2037 San Fernando Bears (3017)
• 2ND PLACE: 2035 Calgary Pioneers (2908)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Boise Spuds (2904)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Atlantic City Gamblers (3082/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 159
• COMMENTS: The massive HR total of 2037 Bears will hold off most challengers, but eventually the sheer volume of EBH in the game today will crack through. Spots 3-8 on current all-time leaderboard from 2039-2041 seasons.

13: RUNS
• RECORD: 2011 Long Beach Surfers (1041)
• 2ND PLACE: 2041 Boise Spuds (1033)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Boise Spuds (1033)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Louisville Sluggers (1107/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 152
• COMMENTS: 7 all time seasons over 1000 runs, 4 of which came in 2041. Significant offensive shift in league right now puts this record in serious jeopardy.

14: DOUBLES
• RECORD: 2040 Yellow Springs Nine (393)
• 2ND PLACE: 2038 Rockville Pikemen (392)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2038 Rockville Pikemen (392)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Twin Cities River Monsters (402/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 158
• COMMENTS: 12 of top 20 performances all time from 2041 season, multiple teams knocking on door of record.

15: EXTRA BASE HITS
• RECORD: 2041 Vancouver Mounties (684)
• 2ND PLACE: 2041 Louisville Sluggers (677)
• 5 YEAR CLOSEST: 2041 Louisville Sluggers (677)
• 2042 PROJECTED LEADER/ALL-TIME PLACE: Atlantic City Gamblers (757/1st)
• GAMES NEEDED AT CURRENT PACE FOR RECORD: 146
• COMMENTS: 9 of top 10 performances from 2040-2041 and record on pace to be shattered this year as trend likely continues.
Randy Weigand

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Des Moines Kernels: 52-

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JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by jleddy » Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:20 am

Awesome stuff. The last-five-year-high was a smart addition to help parse relevancy.

While I don’t know park factors prior to their current settings, but the seemingly overwhelming style of “suppress AVG and HR/boost 2B and 3B” could be just as much of a factor, if not more, than the arrival of young offensive stars.
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:46 am

jleddy wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:20 am
Awesome stuff. The last-five-year-high was a smart addition to help parse relevancy.

While I don’t know park factors prior to their current settings, but the seemingly overwhelming style of “suppress AVG and HR/boost 2B and 3B” could be just as much of a factor, if not more, than the arrival of young offensive stars.
Park factors is a slippery slope, especially without a historical database so I stayed away from that. Certainly a possibility though.
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Des Moines Kernels: 52-

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JL Champion- 34
FL Champion- 36, 37
JL Southern- 34
FL Pacific- 37, 39
Wild Card- 33, 35, 36, 40, 43

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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:42 am

We've been discussing the offensive era for awhile, and this gives us a nice overview of it. I agree that park factors are an important part of it. Ultimately we see Louisville, Atlantic City, and Twin Cities making a big run. They are all filled with very good hitters, but their parks and the parks of the divisions they play in are perfectly suited to create this kind of run, too. When we take into account the schedule and the number of games we play in each team's parks here are the "seasonal park factors" that hitters of those teams see:

TeamAVGAVGLAVGR2B3BHRHRLHRR
Louisville1.021.051.010.971.061.051.071.03
Twin Cities1.001.001.001.081.091.030.971.06
Atlantic City1.001.001.001.041.131.001.040.97
Louisville's 1.07 is by far the best seasonal LHB HR park in the league (with two others at 1.05), the 1.03 for RHB is toward the top also. They combine to make Louisville's hitting environment the most advantageous place for home run hitters to go.

Twin Cities' 1.09 seasonal number makes it by FAR the best triples park in the Frick League. The 1.08 doubles rating is in the upper ranges.

But there are several very good triples parks in the Atlantic division, hence Atlantic Cities' sky-high seasonal environment for them. Their doubles environment is also very good.

So, as we've discussed in the case of Emilio Morales far too many times, a ballpark (and the ballparks a guy plays in on the road) can make a very big difference. I know that those numbers have changed upward over the years--but the slippery slope Randy refers to is that (1) I don't know what park factors were every year, and (2) I'm not sure exactly how they are applied inside the engine (are they a flat-percentage increase/decrease? ... Dunno).
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:10 am

That said, here is the seasonal doubles environment for our hitters today (notice how all but seven parks serve to increase doubles over what the game engine would normally create):

Team2B
San Antonio1.122
Charlotte1.116
Boise1.108
Montreal1.098
Hawaii1.097
Twin Cities1.085<<<
Calgary1.076
Wichita1.062
California1.057
Seattle1.051
Yellow Springs1.051
Las Vegas1.044
Phoenix1.042
Edmonton1.040
Atlantic City1.038<<<
Vancouver1.037
Nashville1.028
Rockville1.024
Charm City1.021
Jacksonville1.015
Mexico City1.012
New Orleans1.011
Portland1.006
Des Moines1.005
Chicago1.005
Omaha0.982
Brooklyn0.979
Long Beach0.978
Louisville0.974<<<
Madison0.941
San Fernando0.937
Valencia0.919
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:15 am

Same data for triples: 21 teams play seasonal schedules that increase triples, 11 decrease them. ATC and TWC are in the top tier, LOU is upper third.

Team3B
Charlotte1.131
Atlantic City1.131<<<
New Orleans1.131
Wichita1.131
Boise1.107
Twin Cities1.089<<<
Calgary1.085
Montreal1.077
Las Vegas1.072
Jacksonville1.063
San Antonio1.063
Louisville1.062<<<
Edmonton1.056
Phoenix1.051
Rockville1.040
Brooklyn1.031
Yellow Springs1.020
Mexico City1.017
California1.017
Hawaii1.007
Nashville1.006
Des Moines0.997
Chicago0.997
Omaha0.997
Vancouver0.989
Charm City0.987
Seattle0.984
Portland0.945
Long Beach0.925
Madison0.906
San Fernando0.893
Valencia0.893
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:23 am

And finally, seasonal HR environments by team...sorted by overall. Louisville and Twin Cities are two of the top two hitter's environments overall, with Calgary sandwiched between. That said, Louisville's 1.071 for LHB is off-the charts top as the best place for LHB to go, and Omaha's 1.093 for RHB is an even greater advantage. Overall, only 13 parks increase HR from the game engine's baseline...19 decrease them.

TeamHRHRLHRR
Louisville1.0461.0711.033<<<
Calgary1.0371.0451.032
Twin Cities1.0290.9731.059<<<
Charm City1.0281.0511.015
Omaha1.0210.8881.093
Jacksonville1.0181.0441.004
Valencia1.0180.9711.042
New Orleans1.0101.0031.013
Long Beach1.0090.9981.015
Hawaii1.0080.9801.024
Phoenix1.0031.0110.998
Las Vegas1.0021.0230.991
San Fernando1.0001.0001.000
Des Moines0.9980.9981.002
Wichita0.9981.0220.985
Atlantic City0.9961.0400.972<<<
Yellow Springs0.9920.9571.011
San Antonio0.9911.0000.987
Boise0.9891.0030.982
Nashville0.9840.9730.990
Portland0.9780.9940.969
Brooklyn0.9741.0440.935
Mexico City0.9730.9820.968
Chicago0.9640.9490.971
California0.9450.9340.951
Vancouver0.9450.9340.951
Charlotte0.9380.9490.932
Seattle0.9310.8930.951
Edmonton0.9140.9220.909
Rockville0.9070.9190.901
Montreal0.9050.9190.898
Madison0.9020.8880.910
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:28 am

For completeness, here's the Batting Average seasonal data: 19 teams see an environment that increases hits, 13 that decrease them.

TeamAVGAVGLAVGR
Seattle1.0661.0661.065
San Fernando1.0601.0611.060
Madison1.0541.0561.053
Rockville1.0351.0391.033
Brooklyn1.0321.0501.022
Vancouver1.0291.0301.029
Long Beach1.0251.0211.024
Yellow Springs1.0231.0101.030
Louisville1.0211.0461.008<<<
Portland1.0151.0231.010
Charm City1.0111.0141.010
Hawaii1.0111.0121.010
Phoenix1.0101.0151.008
Omaha1.0081.0101.007
Jacksonville1.0041.0140.999
Twin Cities1.0031.0031.003<<<
Des Moines1.0031.0190.998
Nashville1.0021.0100.998
Atlantic City1.0011.0001.003<<<
Calgary0.9991.0030.997
San Antonio0.9991.0030.997
Charlotte0.9981.0010.996
California0.9970.9970.996
New Orleans0.9961.0090.990
Boise0.9921.0010.987
Las Vegas0.9911.0030.985
Wichita0.9911.0170.978
Edmonton0.9910.9960.989
Mexico City0.9900.9940.987
Valencia0.9830.9750.987
Chicago0.9780.9800.977
Montreal0.9540.9570.952
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:51 am

As a league, you can see our environment increases hits a little (about 1%), but we increase doubles and triples quite a bit while depressing HR:

AVGAVGLAVGR2B3BHRHRLHRR
FL1.0171.0201.0161.0100.9830.9860.9630.998
JL1.0001.0070.9961.0511.0730.9800.9990.970
AVG1.0091.0141.0061.0301.0280.9830.9810.984<<<

The Frick environment tends to bump batting average (esp. the Pacific), while the Atlantic is about the extra bases (especially the Frontier).

AVGAVGLAVGR2B3BHRHRLHRR
FLH1.0121.0171.0091.0091.0090.9920.9621.009
FLP1.0231.0231.0231.0100.9570.9790.9630.988
JLA1.0041.0111.0011.0381.0740.9720.9960.959
JLF0.9951.0040.9911.0631.0730.9881.0010.982
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:08 am

that is awesome that san fernando is exactly level for HR despite my wacky park dimensions.
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by HoosierVic » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:21 am

This was really well done, Randy. Thanks for posting!

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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:03 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:08 am
that is awesome that san fernando is exactly level for HR despite my wacky park dimensions.
San Fernando hitters see a level seasonal environment because of all the other parks in their division/league.
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:05 am

RonCo wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:03 am
usnspecialist wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:08 am
that is awesome that san fernando is exactly level for HR despite my wacky park dimensions.
San Fernando hitters see a level seasonal environment because of all the other parks in their division/league.
i know, but still odd to see it perfectly 1.000 across the board.
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Des Moines Kernels: 52-

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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by Spiccoli » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:12 am

You know, I really should pay more attention to my park factors. The original team owner created stadium in the expansion year. I have a love for gap hitters and fast base runners...lol, though I've heard that GAP really doesn't do much?

Lol... I don't know. I guess it's turned into a team that hits lot's of doubles who can score guys from 1st base.

Funny thing is, I really don't want to mess with my park, because I'd hate to spend a bunch of PP to modify it and have a several negative unintended consequences I can't fix without spending more PP.

I do remember the season where Ted modified his park to make it more hitter friendly and California really took off after that. At least I think that's what happened. I think the California park was a brutal pitchers park prior... like some factors less than .900. ??
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by CTBrewCrew » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:52 pm

Check #15 for EBH - top year and 2nd closest are same year 😄
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by jleddy » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pm

Spiccoli wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:12 am
though I've heard that GAP really doesn't do much?
lies!
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by Fat Nige » Fri May 01, 2020 7:29 am

I think most losses should be included somewhere so at least Wichita can get mentioned as a top candidate;)
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by usnspecialist » Fri May 01, 2020 8:37 am

Fat Nige wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:29 am
I think most losses should be included somewhere so at least Wichita can get mentioned as a top candidate;)
i do plan on doing an inverse version of this list, so maybe you will sneak onto that one in a few places :D
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by Spiccoli » Fri May 01, 2020 10:15 am

jleddy wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:13 pm
Spiccoli wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:12 am
though I've heard that GAP really doesn't do much?
lies!
I tend to agree. Back in the day when Gorilla Man was producing, he had a 9 Contact, 9 Gap and 2 Power... He lead the league in triples and always hit tons of doubles for his productive seasons.

But sometimes I see people posting that Gap is over-rated and doesn't really mean much.

I think the Gap rating is why Joe Bradshaw is a much better hitter than Parker Davenport (9 vs 5). Their other batter ratings are pretty comparable.

Bradshaw is on pace for 60 doubles and 40 homers... He even has 2 triples with a Speed of 1.... lol. That should be impossible.
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Re: Likelihood of Positive Team Offensive Records

Post by RonCo » Fri May 01, 2020 10:21 am

I'm never sure why people discount Gap. It's probably true gap is limited by Contact/BABIP, but it has significant impact.
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