2031-2032 Offseason Compensation Thresholds

[aaronweiner]

Read as player name (receiving compensation) in no particular order. (Matt determines compensation order.)

Type A Batters: 3.1 WAR

Type B Batters: 1.5 WAR

Manuel Freyta (MAD)

Type A Starting Pitchers: 4.3 WAR

Eduardo Lopez (YS9)
Antonio Correa (Vancouver)
Roberto Ramos (Seattle)

Type B Starting Pitchers: 3.2 WAR

Juan Hernandez (Vancouver)
Chris Lee (Des Moines)

Type A Relief Pitchers: 1.2 WAR

Jesus Feliciano (ATC)

Type B Relief Pitchers: 0.8 WAR

Jose De La Cruz (Charm City)
Jorge Jimenez (Montreal)

[udlb58]

He's only eligible if he declines his option, but can anyone tell me how Ramos was a 3.6 WAR player a year ago and a 2.5 WAR player this year?

Code: Select all

Year/Team/League	       Age	 G	 AB	  H	2B  3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	HP	SF	  K	SB	CS	 AVG	 OBP	 SLG	 OPS	OPS+	wRC+	WAR
2030 Jacksonville - BBA	31	136	469	136	18	2	38	88	79	24	11	 3	129	 1	 0	.290	.337	.580	.917	 142	 147	3.6
2031 Jacksonville - BBA	32	133	466	133	15	0	41	114  76	28	10	 3	118	 0	 5	.285	.337	.582	.919	 133	 137	2.5

Year/Team/League	      POS	 G	 GS	 PO	A	DP	 TC	E	 PCT	   INN	 RNG	  ZR	 EFF
2030 Jacksonville - ML	LF	122	119	210	8	 2	222	4	.982	1049.0	1.87	-5.2	.964	
2031 Jacksonville - ML	LF	120	116	200	10	1	215	5	.977	1012.2	1.87	-6.5	.956

Considering they would be type B, I guess I hope Tonche and Ramos don't take their opt-outs. Funny that Caldwell and Alvarado, who were key stabilizing arms when the rest of my staff went all Jekyll n Hyde, both have bad Septembers that drop them below the threshold; while Wilson, who was the definition of a 'meh' bullpen arm all year, goes on a 6 week streak of 0 ER to close out the year and eek over the threshold.

[Lane]

I really don't know how much it would affect his WAR, but if the overall offensive environment increases, and his production stays the same, does that affect WAR? We see the effect in the OPS+ and wRC+, so maybe WAR is affected in a similar way.

Other than that, fielding is just a touch worse, and the 5 CS didn't help. But I get your point. It's a huge difference for effectively the same production.

[RonCo]

The average offense is up this year, and that 0-5 stolen base thing didn't help...that's probably -.3 WAR right there.

[RonCo]

I doubt if Eduardo Lopez opts out of his $19.5M year, but if he does he qualifies for compensation, right?

[udlb58]

I really don't know how much it would affect his WAR, but if the overall offensive environment increases, and his production stays the same, does that affect WAR? We see the effect in the OPS+ and wRC+, so maybe WAR is affected in a similar way.

Other than that, fielding is just a touch worse, and the 5 CS didn't help. But I get your point. It's a huge difference for effectively the same production.

I think you are both on to something with the 0-5 in baserunning. Look at Chavez and Hahn.

Chavez had nearly an identical offensive season to last year (89 OPS+ vs 90 OPS+), but saw a HUGE jump in defensive production (+18.9 ZR, 1.071 EFF; vs +9.4 ZR, 1.047 EFF). Yet somehow, despite seeing a bit more playing time (7 more games), had a very slight increase in offensive rate production, and a massive improvement in defensive production; he only goes up 0.5 WAR. He did have a 3% drop in his SB% and moved down one rung on the defensive spectrum (2B to CF).

Hahn has virtually the same number of PA both years, with a 6 point increase in OPS+, but a 0.2 increase in WAR, likely held back by his 50% SB%.

(I was definitely running too much this year with Ramos and Hahn combining for 13 attempts)

[bschr682]

Because the whole idea of WAR is nonsense?

[udlb58]

Because the whole idea of WAR is nonsense?

Normally I would think comparing WAR between players of the same position and across seasons would be reasonable; but I still can't wrap my head around those two seasons being separated in value by more than a full win. I doubt Ramos becomes a free agent anyway, but it just looks odd. Maybe there was a change in the way WAR is calculated between versions? Or maybe the valuation on baserunning is a little off? I don't know.

[Ted]

Because the whole idea of WAR is nonsense?

I love your consistency.

[bcslouck]

Well as stated above, while the OPS is slightly higher, the OPS+ is lower. So if OPS+ is accounted into WAR instead of flat OPS, I can get why it'd be lower. 10% decrease isn't huge, but it isn't small either. Combo'd with slightly worse defense and the 0-5, it makes sense its down. But not sure if it should be a full win.

[RonCo]

Doing highly simplified math, 10 runs generally equates to 1 win. Ramos's wRC+ dropped 10 points.

Shrug.

WAR is like all other stats. Valuable, but not absolute.

[bschr682]

Because the whole idea of WAR is nonsense?

I love your consistency.

Thank you. Some day people will give up trying to create a WAR that works because its an impossible task. Until then I will watch with amusement.

Although to be fair, in an environment like OOTP maybe WAR has a shot but its funny that it doesn't even work in a spreadsheet video game.

[JohnC]

You guys better be careful or Kyle is going to come on here and tell you all otherwise!

[RonCo]

I think WAR is working just fine in the game.

Ramos lost about .35 WAR to his baserunning. He lost a little more to his fielding, and then again a little more to his batting (but not much). Add to this that average offense was up just under a half a run on the year, and you've got a WAR drop that makes sense.

[RonCo]

That said, I think Markus has dropped a WAR calculation correction into the mix of one of these updates without telling anyone. You might notice I've been paying much more attention to details this season, and I've seen some interesting shifts in WAR figures (and ZR figured, for that matter). It's all good in the end, because these things are mostly relative. Shrug.

[udlb58]

I think WAR is working just fine in the game.

Ramos lost about .35 WAR to his baserunning. He lost a little more to his fielding, and then again a little more to his batting (but not much). Add to this that average offense was up just under a half a run on the year, and you've got a WAR drop that makes sense.

.35 WAR for 5 CS seems harsh (guessing you calculated this from an actual WAR formula). If 5 of his singles were strikeouts would he have .35 less WAR? If not, what exactly is the difference between a strikeout and a single+CS?

[RonCo]

I think WAR is working just fine in the game.

Ramos lost about .35 WAR to his baserunning. He lost a little more to his fielding, and then again a little more to his batting (but not much). Add to this that average offense was up just under a half a run on the year, and you've got a WAR drop that makes sense.

Quoting myself here...har!

In fact, this is the exact reason why WAR is valuable. Two fairly similar lines, but very different run scoring environments.

Lucas McNeill:
2029: 20 HR, .286/.369/.544 - 5.6 WAR - League Run Environment: about 4.15 runs a game.
2031: 20 HR, .311/.411/.524 - 5.4 WAR - League Run Environment: about 4.45 runs a game.

These are semi-similar lines, and in fact if you were to poll it, most people would probably rank his 2031 numbers over his 2029 numbers, but his 2029 season was really a little better, which by gut feeling I would have said even before looking at the numbers. So, yeah, WAR can tell a story if you read it fully. The problem with these things is that they get too heavily weighted. At the end of the day, a .2 difference in WAR is in the noise. I'll be happy with either number.

[RonCo]

I think WAR is working just fine in the game.

Ramos lost about .35 WAR to his baserunning. He lost a little more to his fielding, and then again a little more to his batting (but not much). Add to this that average offense was up just under a half a run on the year, and you've got a WAR drop that makes sense.

.35 WAR for 5 CS seems harsh (guessing you calculated this from an actual WAR formula). If 5 of his singles were strikeouts would he have .35 less WAR? If not, what exactly is the difference between a strikeout and a single+CS?

I get .35 this way:

1 CS = -.66 Runs
1 SB = +.34 Runs

Ramos went 0-5 this year, and 1-1 last year.

5 CS = 5 x .64 = -3.2 Runs
1 SB = 1 x .34 = -.34 Runs

Total loss season over season = 3.54 Runs

If 10 runs equal a win, then 3.54/10 = .354 Wins Lost

-------------------------

And, yes, five less hits would change Ramos's WAR value coniderably. That would drop him from:

.285/.337/.582, to
.278/.327/.571

There is a real difference in these two lines. Those are two different players.

There is also a game difference to a single vs. a strikeout, of course. A single with a guy on second, and a CS gets you arun, regardless. But that's a different story.

And, for the final word, I suggest you listen to Uncle Crash: [grin]

[RonCo]

I don't think many people, including a lot of baseball people, truly understand the fine line between good and great performances. It's easy to forget how much just a few things matter.

If, for example, I could find a real way to keep Angel De Castillo from running, he would be a 7+ WAR player. Instead he's just a very nice 5.8.

[udlb58]

I think WAR is working just fine in the game.

Ramos lost about .35 WAR to his baserunning. He lost a little more to his fielding, and then again a little more to his batting (but not much). Add to this that average offense was up just under a half a run on the year, and you've got a WAR drop that makes sense.

Quoting myself here...har!

In fact, this is the exact reason why WAR is valuable. Two fairly similar lines, but very different run scoring environments.

Lucas McNeill:
2029: 20 HR, .286/.369/.544 - 5.6 WAR - League Run Environment: about 4.15 runs a game.
2031: 20 HR, .311/.411/.524 - 5.4 WAR - League Run Environment: about 4.45 runs a game.

These are semi-similar lines, and in fact if you were to poll it, most people would probably rank his 2031 numbers over his 2029 numbers, but his 2029 season was really a little better, which by gut feeling I would have said even before looking at the numbers. So, yeah, WAR can tell a story if you read it fully. The problem with these things is that they get too heavily weighted. At the end of the day, a .2 difference in WAR is in the noise. I'll be happy with either number.

See, now I really don't understand. To me, his drop in WAR between the two is because of his drop in defensive numbers. His 2031 OPS+ is 11 points higher and wRC+ 15 points higher but his defensive numbers are down across the board. So in 2031 he was a better hitter relative to the 'league average hitter' but was a lesser defender relative to the 'league average 2B'. No?