Breaking down the FL Pacific

[aaronweiner]

Seattle, playing average baseball in September with a 9-9 record, has allowed Calgary and Las Vegas to creep back into the division race. Seattle's still in the driver's seat, but they'll have to face both teams down the stretch. What's more unnerving for Seattle is that on September 16th, they had a six and half game lead over Calgary and a seven game lead over Las Vegas, so they've blown four games in four days.

How likely is it that the Seattle Storm willl blow a six and a half game lead with twelve games left to play? It doesn't look probable, but it looked impossible just a week ago, and both teams will get a shot at Seattle over the next week and a half. Let's take a closer look and find out how this is going to go down.


Team Schedules


Seattle Storm (76-68), leading Pacific

Games left: 8
Games left against contenders: 5 (two Calgary, three Las Vegas)
Games against sub-.500 teams 3 (Long Beach)


Calgary Marauders (76-68), two and a half games back

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 5 (two Seattle, three Las Vegas)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Long Beach)


Las Vegas Hustlers (75-71) three games back

Games left: 8
Games left against contenders: 6 (three Seattle, three Calgary)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 2 (Long Beach)


Anaylsis of FL Pacific Race

Seattle's best option is a four-man rotation for the rest of the year. The team just had an off day, has one left and only eight games, so that's two starts for each pitcher with just one out of eight on short rest. If they dump out Dow Jones, who's been just awful, they have four starters with an ERA of 4.45 or lower, and Seattle averages five runs a game. It's a low-risk strategy that could pay significant dividends for the Storm.

That said, based on the upcoming schedule, it looks as if Seattle has tooled up to murder Long Beach, not Calgary or Las Vegas from here on out. This may wreak some havoc in the wild card race, but it might be the soundest strategy for Seattle to pursue. Seattle gets their wins on an offense that can only aptly be described as a force of nature, as the team is first in OBP, SLG, batting average and extra-base hits, and second in stolen bases. Seattle actually lost their last series against Long Beach at the end of August, but sweeping the Surfers this time would place the pressure firmly back on Calgary and Las Vegas.

That said, Seattle also needs one of the next two from Calgary, who's only two back in the loss column. Seattle's not likely to beat Izatt, but they might have a better shot if they install the four-man rotation. If they don't take either, they may look back at Ted Dever's inability to close out September 19th's game against Calgary as the reason they lost the division title. Dever gave up two runs to blow the lead, and then Floyd Bannister came on and gave up three more.

Calgary has the best shot if they do win the next two against Seattle. They have no off days left, so while the temptation might be there to go to a four man rotation of their own, they might eschew the option in favor of pitching Izatt a game early so that he can go against both Seattle and Las Vegas. Izatt would have to throw on short rest for both starts. Right now, it's most important that Calgary manage Izatt, because he's doing some of his best work of the season and needs to pitch against both contenders.

Las Vegas is three very real games back, so they'll have to basically massacre everyone to win the West outright. They've been doing that all September, posting a 13-5 record on their way back to respectability, with four outstanding efforts from four excellent starting pitchers. Vegas will have to complete the sweep against Long Beach, but should they win those two and Calgary sweep Seattle, they'll just have to win the series against Seattle to have a shot. Vegas has a better shot at the wild card and probably, should they make the playoffs, would get there by that route.


Final Percentage Odds (this is to at least tie for the division lead)

Seattle 60%
Calgary 25%
Las Vegas 15%

Explanation: We think that the Calgary/Vegas series, likely to end in a split, can only help Seattle. However, Calgary's favored to win the last two games between Seattle and themselves at this point, and if they do they may become the favorites in the Pacific. Even if they did take both, the two teams' schedules are basically identical from there (with Calgary having to win an extra game against Long Beach) meaning it would be at best 40%-40%-20%. Two and a half games with nine to play is a LOT, but it becomes a lot less if Calgary sweeps the next two.

[aaronweiner]

[DenverZeppo]

I'm reading 'em...just no time to respond.

They're a good read, and I'm really hoping for a good result against Seattle in these last two games.

Zep

[aaronweiner]

Seriously - if every season's like this in OOTP I think I'd better quit...right now the heart's healthy. Or I should go into extended periods of rebuilding so I don't have to worry about dramatic four-way ties.