2061 - Analysis: Vancouver/Montreal Deal

[RonCo]

At the end of the day, the trading of Reynaldo Serrano should probably have been considered inevitable. He wore a Mountie uniform, after all, and GM Aaron Wharram hadn’t made a deal for at least thirty minutes. He was due.

Inevitable or not, the fact is that Serrano (along with outfielder Ziya Turkes) has been dealt to the Montreal Blazers in return for four prospects and a wad of cash roughly the size of a $2,000,000 bill. Consider it the modern tale of two baseball teams headed in different directions. Serrano is a newly minted mega-shortstop (which are certainly hard to find), and Montreal has been on the prowl for such a thing ever since coming to grips with the idea that John Jowers was not the hoover-droid they were looking for. The Blazers are 25-22 and in the hunt for another run at the Johnson Atlantic title, or at least a spot in the silly exhibition season that comes after said title has been awarded to Charm City. The Mounties are not 25-22, and are not in the chase for the Frick Pacific Title.

Sigh for poor Wharram.

So, let’s take a quick look, shall we?

Here’s the deal:


Montreal receives:
2B/SS Reynaldo Serrano
RF Ziya Turkes

Vancouver receives:
1B/DH Juan Hernandez (#36 BBA Prospect, #3 Montreal prospect)
LF/RF Phillip Higgins (#91 BBA Prospect, #6 Montreal prospect)
P Abdul-Halim bin Mansur (#7 Montreal prospect)
P Chris Parker (#13 Montreal Prospect)
$2,000,000


From the Blazer’s side, there’s risk here. First there’s the obvious bit that Serrano has spent his whole career playing second base, but the deal only works if he can make the proper slide across the infield to handle shortstop. Baseball people say he should be able to, so there’s that. But baseball people have been wrong before, right? Still, that “10” range is sexy AF, so really it ought to work out. Add Serrano’s bat coming from the left side and you’d expect the WAR to bump up, right? He’s been a 3 WAR kind of guy at 2B, why not 4 WAR as SS?

I’ll tell you why not…or at least the risk of why not. Despite being 26, Serrano is showing signs he may be hard to keep on the field. He’s complained of a chronic back problem, and sat out a bit earlier this year with tendonitis in the same knee he had ACL surgery on a couple years back. It’s not the years, it’s the mileage, right? I’ll tell you another why not, too. There’s this stat that folks call On Base Percentage. It seems like it was so important a guy wrote an entire book based on the guy what thought it out. Serrano’s OBP has been tepid since the minute he stepped on a BBA level baseball field. Discounting his first cup of coffee season, here are Reynaldo Serrano’s OBPs since he arrived: .299, .310, .301, .288, and finally (at Vancouver .194). Bottom line, the man cannot take a walk.

Of course, Serrano wasn’t the only guy Montreal got. Ziya Zurkes came over, too. The front office says he’s going to play right field mostly, and DH a bit. Being in Bikini right now, I’m quite familiar with the process of replacing bad fielders, and that’s what Zurkes will be doing, replacing Roosevelt Davis, who has turned a -1.3 ZR in his 28 games in the role. The problem with this is that, while it’s clear Zurkes will be an improvement, he is still not a good defender (as his career -12 ZR shows). Still, he should be able to hit a little, so if he does nothing but protect the Blazer fans from the sight of Davis in the field, that’s probably pretty good.

Bottom line to me, this is a deal Montreal had to do. It’s not every day you can get a “10” range shortstop who can do something offensively and at the same time upgrade a couple positions. But there’s risk here.

On the other hand, they didn’t really give up that much.

Perhaps that’s rough to say about the club’s #3, #6, #7, and #13 prospects, but I can only call them like I see them. OOTP being what OOTP is, and me being who I am, I have to say I think they got the polarity reversed on these guys. I mean, I like them. And, like Montreal before, I think this is a deal Vancouver had to do==or at least totally makes sense that they did it. But, for example, I like Higgins (#91 overall) much better than I like Hernandez (#36 overall). Given his rating profile, I think—for example—Higgins would play 1B in front of Hernandez. He would also DH before Hernandez.

Of course, that’s not the natural problem. I mean, you need both a DH and a 1B, and if Higgins can’t cut the outfield (where his 6/6/6 ratings making him passable but not special) I think he would make an above-average defensive 1B, allowing Vancouver to push Hernandez to the DH. You need both, anyway.

Perhaps time will prove me wrong, but the bottom line for my spider sense is that Higgins was the true get, and Hernandez the extra bonus.

Same thing on the mound. I like Parker better than bin Mansur.

At the end of the day bin Mansur keeps it in the park, which is good, and he’s a lefty, which means he’ll get every opportunity and then some. But his 4/7/5 base rating scheme gives me the willies, and his repertoire doesn’t scream success. That he’s 23 and just starting to maybe get it together in AA means something to me, though maybe I don’t know what. Parker, on the other hand, is only 20, has an intriguing 5/6/8 profile that (assuming he grows into it) will be valuable. He’s also got a couple interesting pitches and good enough intangibles to like having him around. He’s been throwing out of the pen for his minor league career, but with that 6 stamina and three pitches he could do a swingman thing. Or Vancouver could cash some PPT and do a Velocity bump conversion to try to edge the stuff up. If that works, he’s a solid contributor to a good bullpen.

All of that is not to say that all of the four of them together aren’t good and valuable prospect fodder. They are. And in the end I think Vancouver will benefit from the deal overall (that they also got $2M in the deal is a nice topper on the ice cream). I’m going off on a tangent more about OOTP I guess than about the players.


So, Like, Who Won The Deal, Man?

That’s what you’re all here for, right? Enough of everything else…who got the best end of the deal?

At the end of the day, this is one of those deals that will be hard to assess until time has passed under the bridge. Like I said before, these are two teams going different directions. And despite all the risks and dalliances about DHs and 1B and the fact that Russell Davis can’t play the field, this is a deal that probably really needed to be made. Someone is probably going to “win” the deal. Either Reynaldo Serrano is going to suddenly ballistic, or go get hurt. Or one of the prospects is going to over achieve, or whatever. I’m guessing that three seasons from now we’ll look back on this one and say “X” really got the better of “Y” on that one.

Unfortunately, though, I don’t know which team to put into which variable.

Or, maybe that’s not too unfortunate, really.

That’s the fun part of what it means to be a fan, after all. If you knew what was going to happen, what fun would that be?

[Dington]

I liked the deal for Vancouver. While Montreal won't miss the pieces they gave up, they could give the Mounties something to work with in the future while trading Serrano at his peak. I think it's downhill for one of the league's most overrated players. That's just due to great propaganda from Aaron over the past few seasons

[RonCo]

If Serrano stays healthy and that 10 range is real, MTL got what they needed.

[Knucklehead254]

I’m gonna miss him greatly, no doubt if he stays healthy he should rock it in Montreals park.

[BaseClogger]

I like Serrano the shortstop better than Serrano the second baseman. I think Aaron could have insisted on an up the middle prospect but it’s a decent haul for a guy who’s playing like shit.

[Knucklehead254]

I like Serrano the shortstop better than Serrano the second baseman. I think Aaron could have insisted on an up the middle prospect but it’s a decent haul for a guy who’s playing like shit.

Honestly didn’t even trade him cause of his season so far it’s just his injury history. If he didnt have that he wouldn’t have gone anywhere.

[Bob Breum]

But, for example, I like Higgins (#91 overall) much better than I like Hernandez (#36 overall). Given his rating profile, I think—for example—Higgins would play 1B in front of Hernandez. He would also DH before Hernandez.

Of course, that’s not the natural problem. I mean, you need both a DH and a 1B, and if Higgins can’t cut the outfield (where his 6/6/6 ratings making him passable but not special) I think he would make an above-average defensive 1B, allowing Vancouver to push Hernandez to the DH. You need both, anyway.

Erik concurs with your opinion. He prefers Higgins. Personally, i like Juan's plus-plus power and BABIP. Higgins is solid all around as a hitter, but not particularly stellar at anything. I wasn't eager to give up either one, but that's how these deals work.

[Bob Breum]

I’m gonna miss him greatly, no doubt if he stays healthy he should rock it in Montreals park.

I am counting on it.

[DaveB]

I kicked the tires on Serrano, but ultimately decided against pursuing him because of his future costs and health issues. If he stays healthy and can pick up SS better could be a nice deal for Montreal.

I like the deal from Vancouver’s perspective as well.

[Bob Breum]

Cue Howard Cosell voice: And down goes Serrano!

[DaveB]

Cue Howard Cosell voice: And down goes Serrano!


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I feel like I put a jinx on him

[Trebro]

Hopefully he'll be better next year but I do wonder if this makes Montreal more inclined to go back to their typical policy regarding fragile dudes.