PROSPECT BEAT 46.3: First Base (or, Burhan! Burhan! Whereforeart thou, Burhan!)

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PROSPECT BEAT 46.3: First Base (or, Burhan! Burhan! Whereforeart thou, Burhan!)

Post by RonCo » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:59 pm

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Travelblog of Thom S. Hunter

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Editor’s Note: This is a running blog that will cover minor league players in the Yellow Springs organization. We initiated it because this kid reporter was hired without my knowledge and we needed to do something with him. He seems flaky to me. Seems like a waste of good cash. But what do I know? Good luck.


September, 2046: Whereabouts Unknown – English dude named Robert Chenoweth has been holding down the fort at first base as a platoon for three of the last four seasons, and as a full-timer in 2046. The hope was he could do it alone, that his right-handed bat wouldn’t be too right to hit right handed pitching. The results haven’t exactly made the Queen happy.

(#2)
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Fact is that first base has had a varied history in Nine lore. Yes, it was the home of one Lucas McNeill for a lot of years, but for the most part it’s been a Place that Platoons. This season seems to suggest that’s not unwise. The good news in that case is that there are once again some options to consider—the first being that “diamond in the rough” Wilbur Lewis is starting to look like a bonafide left side of a platoon. Lewis was selected quietly in the fourth round of the 2042 draft and has slowly made his way through the system, slugging a bit here and getting on base a bit there. He’s not a guy you’d point to and say “superstar,” but he’s the kind of guy the Nine have consistently found ways to leverage here and there.

Besides that, he’s from Iowa. You know, build it and they will come. How can you argue against that? (yeah, I know how long it’s been since the Kernels made the show. Go with me here.) If nothing else, he'll remind me of Wilbur the Pig, and I've always been a loon for a good barbecue.

Bottom line is that Lewis can hit a little, and at 22 he’s essentially ready.

(#1)
That Lewis is ready makes a difference because Burhan Tahir, the top dog at the position, isn’t. Maybe that’s his fault and maybe it isn’t, but the Sweet-Swinging Egyptian is likely beginning to wear out his welcome when it comes to fan’s ears.

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Tahir was a high-profile international signing, and carries the burdens that are associated with that tag. After being promoted out of rookie ball and jumping straight to the A-class level, it appeared he had stalled in his third season in Silver Springs. Until about June, when the switch seemed to have turned on. Maybe.

The raw power still has a way to go, but Tahir blasted 30 doubles in the last three months of the season, and that’ll play. His 111 OPS+ this season represents the first time in his career that he’s been above league average—which has some fans wondering if the team has simply rushed him into situations he hasn’t been able to handle. At 19, there’s plenty of time—and given that the team can control Chenoweth until 2048, they might need it all.

Assuming scouts are happy, expect Tahir to start in AA—though some are suggesting another month or so in A-ball might not be a bad barometer.

(#3/#4)
Here’s a dark undercurrent to the Lewis and Tahir show, though. Neither one can hit a lefty if you were to cement it in place. So, assuming Chenoweth gets too pricey, the team will need a right-handed partner. I figure the mantle would fall to either Kosaku Nishimura or Esteban Carillo. Both are 20, both are switch hitters, both look basically serviceable—or, in other words, both look like old-school Nine first basemen.

It’s also of note that both were signed as minor league free agents in 2044, to almost bookend $1.5M bonus deals.

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Nishimura is a bit precocious, having signed a minor league contract out of Japan, and after struggling in Cat Island (SA) and posting a replacement level season in Silver Springs (A), he found playing time in AA to start the year. He surprised everyone with a .312/.382/.516 slash that included 11 homers, then proceeded to post a 116 OPS+ in 352 plate appearances at AAA Indy when he was later promoted again. He fits that “professional hitter” mold—not really All-Star material, but with solid plate discipline and enough pop to hurt a team.

Bottom line here though, is the bottom line. The Nine are cheap as plastic shades, but even they aren't cheap enough to kick Chenoweth to the curb yet, I don't think. That all says that Nishimura should get himself prepared for another season scouring the hot spots in Indianapolis (yeah, there I go, proving that I can use an oxymoron as well as the next guy).

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Carillo took a couple passes through Cat Island to really catch the wave, and his results in Silver Springs were ... well ... streaky. I could see him spending the first half of 2047 back in Florida, though Santa Cruz is the target for the end of the year, either way. He was essentially league average in A-ball, the ballpark he reports to will probably be determined by playing time more than "skill level."

(Aside: I love sounding like I might know something, and using "skill level" suggests that I'm smart enough to know whatever the hell that is).

Anyway, there’s a long way to go for either. That Nishimura was in AAA while Carillo will likely start in AA next year, one suggests that Nishi will have the upper hand, but this game is like handicapping the poines, you know, and I gotta say that I’ve watched a lot of folks have left a lot of cash at Churchill Downs—some of them me. So who’s sucker enough to make that call right now, eh”
# As with every position, the team has a gaggle of players who could wind up making a difference. If I were picking a #5, it would probably be 24-year-old Ray Wallace. He’s from Cottleville, Missouri, so one figures he can really “show me” when needed (careful there, shoeless)—and the fact is that his numbers since being drafted in 2041 have always been more than solid. The ratings are good, not great, though—so whatever he’s doing, he’s doing it quietly … which is nice for the team, but maybe not so good for putting food on the table for Mrs. Wallace.

Bottom line, I suppose, is that if Lewis or Tahir don’t pan out, it’s nice to have a Wallace around to fall back on.

Regardless, the rest of the guys on my list are all one little bump away from being of serious interest, but they are all quite young, and being young I suppose they are all out every night looking for that bump-a-beast to come calling.


ORGANIZATIONAL PROSPECT DEPTH CHART
LevelPlayerAgeBOVRHITTINGDEFCeilingArrivalNotes
ABurhan Tahir19L30/6510/9/7/4/94/7/3/1All-Star2049Caught on late 2046
AAAWilbur Lewis22L457/7/9/6/51/3/3/2Platoon2047Steady Growth
AAAKosaku Nishimura20S30/458/8/6/4/92/3/2/22 WAR?2048SHB-Injury Fill?
AEsteban Carillo20S25/457/8/8/5/62/1/4/22 WAR?
AARay Wallace24L408/8/5/5/82/2/8/2PlatoonNow?Injury Fill?
AJose Macias21L25/455/8/8/6/54/3/2/1
RDaniel Burnette19R20/404/7/8/8/41/2/8/1Needs CONT
RJim Donaldson19R20/355/8/9/5/43/3/4/1
RStuart Brunson19S20/306/8/4/4/84/3/2/1
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Re: PROSPECT BEAT 46.3: First Base (or, Burhan! Burhan! Whereforeart thou, Burhan!)

Post by shoeless.db » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:04 pm

I’ve always like Missouri.

Oops, I meant the river. The states a dung heap.
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