- VISIT - 
They say good things come in threes. If so, this sim probably represents that pretty well. By that I mean that there are at least three series that could make a case for being the “series of the sim,” and arguably even more. San Antonio has a couple of them coming up, for example. And you could say the whole of the Frontier is in a situation where the next slate of games could well sort some wheat from chaff.
In the end, I went with Long Beach and Louisville as much because their series fits completely inside the sim (rather than wrapping around to a couple others) as because of its post-season ramifications. Putting it directly, Louisville is in as close to a Must Win situation as you can get while being a month away from the end of the season. A sweep might just kill them.
Let’s take a look at it, shall we?
Is This the Real Louisville?
I think you have to start with this bit of a fact: The Louisville clubhouse has got to be feeling the heat. It’s been oft-commented that injuries have served to hamstring the Sluggers as the year has gone by, but the hard cold facts suggest that this is a team that has just never really gotten going in the fashion that Slugger fans have become accustomed to. Sure, they were 31-24 leaving May, but that’s only a 90-win pace. For a team that expects to hit triple digits, that just doesn’t cut it.
And then came the injuries.
Which makes you go back and look at the numbers. Louisville crashed the world two seasons back, riding Semei Kwakou and a swarm of hitters to a 111 win season. Reputations like that die hard, maybe, but the record also shows a fall-back to 88 wins in 2043 while a look backward says the Sluggers won 96 and 93 the two years before that Heartland Bludgeoning. Run back to 2044 and the Media Guide projection of 90 wins rides only a shade north of the team’s current past of 86. So, yes, the team may be down, and injuries are certainly not helping things. But it seems like all those smug asshole fans in Loserville need to calm the rockets on all those 100-win season projections. At this point, the team is going to have to fight like hell just to make the post-season, and it’s got to start now. A home sweeping by the Pacific division leaders would be like a broadside cannon shot to their hopes.
Surfers Sizzling
To make matters worse for Louisville faithful, they’re catching the Surfers at what looks like about the worst time they could catch them. Long Beach cut a bloody swath through August, going 22-6 and ripping the division leadership from Hawaii’s floundering hands. They are still waiting for shortstop Francisco Otero to come back from a wicked looking hamstring tear, but otherwise are playing with a full deck. With a three and a half game lead, it’s too close for anyone to let up, so one would expect the Surfers to be playing full steam ahead, too.
No rest for the weary.
Pitching Matchups
As always, pitching match-ups are subject to change, and in Long Beach’s case, there’s some thought that perhaps a juggling will put the ever-dangerous Danya Tchekanov into the fray in game one. But for now it appears that the rotations will be:
| Game | Long Beach | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Yyrigs Carpenter (9-8, 4.20) | Knud Zeitler (11-6, 2.60) |
| Game 2 | Ernesto Delgado (10-12, 4.26) | Thierry Simonnet (2-5, 4.27) |
| Game 3 | Del Willis (2-0, 4.26) | Juan Garcia (8-2, 4.16) |
Each of these three parings are interesting in themselves, starting with the Carpenter/Zeitler match. It wasn’t long ago that these would be considered mast see TV, and the fact is that both are still watchable. Carpenter has turned more into the grizzled veteran, though, and as Zeitler throws the world takes a collective breath in hopes he won’t get hurt again. You’d think the second game would start with a bit of advantage to the Surfers, as Delgado has quietly become one of those generally effective kinds of guys who fades into the woodwork, while the Sluggers would probably much rather Simonnet throw from the pen rather than start. You do what you have to do, though. The third match pits wonder-youth of Wills against semi-youth of 25-year-old Juan Garcia. Garcia has been effective enough for Louisville, and Wills has had a fairly solid start as a Surfer who came to the team in the same year he was drafted. With 45 innings in college and another 48 in the minors this season, it seems the Long Beach bench has the kid on a pretty tight rein, which makes sense.
I don’t expect Wills to get into the 6th inning in Louisville, but that’s fine, because the Surfers will bring a top-flight bullpen to the Derby City that focuses on five arms. This is an interesting arrangement, especially given the whole fad of focusing on one (or two) big stoppers. The Surfers top five reliever seem to get about 95% of the work. (something for other folks to take a look at, we suppose.
A scan of the Slugger pen is nowhere near as forgiving—they’ll rely on Emanuel Mercati. Juan Pinto has been the second stopper but we’re assuming that’s due to necessity more than design. Bottom line here is that while LOU has a few guys who can get hitters out, they’ll need to get into the rest of the pen sometime, and that’s when the bats come alive.
Projection: Will Smoke and Mirrors Make Pain for Louisville?
Well…look. If you know me, you know I don’t like to make real predictions. Here’s part of the reason: look at these two offenses. LBC GM Stephen Lane has often used the Smoke and Mirrors Trademark to describe his club, and scanning the team’s lineup proves the point. Sure, you find guys who can hit—Mario Barrera is having a fine year and the Millard Younger signing has been a gas, gas, gas—but there are no big names. No Kwakou. No French. No whatever. And, at the end of the day the team is 10th in the Frick when it comes to scoring runs. Is that smoke or is that a set of mirrors? I don’t know.
Louisville. On the other hand, does have a Kwakou. Not only a Kwakou, of course. The Kwakou. And Theo Bourges. And Juan Medrano. And …
Yes, the Sluggers have been a bit of an injury magnet, and yes some have had down years. But their backs are up against a wall, and they still have claws. The Louisville offense can still rake—which makes it hard to bet against.
So I’m not going to.
