- Ratings (OVERALL/POTENTIAL) and age are as of July 21, 2044
- 2044 WAR figures are projected out for the rest of the year
- Salary figures in italics are projected arbitration totals
- Players selected in the 2044 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Part II: #50-#41
We continue our rundown of the list, today looking at #40-#21, with the top twenty to be unveiled Monday evening (fingers crossed):
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#40 - Alexander Julyan, Seattle, CF 60/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 38
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 23 | -0.8 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 24 | 4.1 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 25 | 3.6 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $5,300,000
After years of prospect hype (#1 overall prospect in 2037, #10 in ’38, #17 in ’39, #12 in ’40, #5 in ’41 and #3 in ’42), the toolsy Jamaican flopped durin a 23-game cup of coffee in 2042 (.161/.229/.264), leaving some to doubt if he’d ever fulfill his promise. Julyan broke out last year, earning the Gillstrom Award and an All-Star nod while slashing .281/.364/.516 and playing standout defense in right field. Everyone, especially the Seattle front office, coaching staff and their fans, were excited for what Julyan would do as a follow-up. It seems the sophomore slump has taken hold, and while his .796 OPS and projected 3.6 WAR aren’t terrible, it’s a bit of a disappointment. Still, Julyan is under team control for four more years and has improved his defense in center, making him that much more valuable.
#39 - Ricardo Mendoza , Yellow Springs, LF/RF 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | 4.2 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 4.3 | $11,000,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 5.0 | $6,000,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $6,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,000,000
Oh, what to make of Ricardo Mendoza? He’s good (at least 4.0 WAR three straight years), he young (23), he’s making an under-market salary ($6M), he’s highly rated (70 overall with several plus-skills), and his makeup is outstanding (a notable ‘fan favorite’.) But here’s the rub: he’s strictly a platoon player (strong-side, at least), he’s below-league average defensively (although he won’t kill you in left and will one day likely become a first baseman), he’s been tagged as a fragile player (although no major injuries to date), and most of all, he can -- and most likely will -- walk at season’s end by exercising his player option. If Yellow Springs were to put him on the trade block, what kind of offers would they get? There’s a ton of risk surrounding Mendoza for any suitor, which really hurts his overall value. A tremendous asset on the Nine, but in the marketplace?
#38 - Lineu Aldo, Montreal, 2B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 36
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | 5.8 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 23 | 3.9 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 4.8 | $8,125,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $35,100,000
REMAINING AAV: $11,700,000
Remember when Aldo was a Silk Award finalist as a rookie back in 2041? It’s tough to improve on an 8.6 WAR season at the age of 21, but Aldo has been more than solid since then. Montreal smartly bought out his arbitration years and should start considering a long-term deal in the next year or so. Surrounded by teammates that seem to all be between the ages of 23 and 25, Montreal’s chock-ful of talented ballplayers under team control. Despite the win-loss hiccup in 2044, expect the Blazers to be contenders again soon, thanks to the likes of Aldo & Co.
#37 - Alfredo Rosas, San Antonio, 3B 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | 2.2 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 4.0 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 4.8 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $20,100,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,700,000
Welcome to the Trade Value list, Alfredo! Making his first All-Star nod last year and quietly on pace for nearly 5.0 WAR this year, Rosas is not about to let his fellow 2038 draftees get all of the spotlight. Blessed with one of the strongest arms in the league and solid offensive profile, the popular Dominican has shown the ability to hit .300 at a regularity with 30 2B/30 HR potential. His days of making the league minimum are up after this year, but with three more years of team control, the Outlaws front office appreciates his value as the club continues to reward their young stars with well-deserved extensions. Look for Rosas to be next in line to extend his stay in San Antonio within the next few years.
#36 - Manobu Shimizu, Madison, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 27
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | 1.4 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 6.2 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 3.4 | $6,875,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $16,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,000,000
Is Shimizu the new Julio Barajas? A young, extremely talented offensive force with a more-than-capable glove who is just on the fringes of being one of the best corner outfielders in their league? Barajas finally made an All-Star Game this year, could Shimizu have a breakout soon and get his first mid-summer nod? With a batting crown under his belt already, Shimizu has the MVP potential that teams build around. With only two years left of arbitration salary, it’ll be interesting to see what Madison does with their 23-year-old star.
#35 - Art O’Bryan, Brooklyn, 1B 65/65
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | 1.7 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 4.1 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 6.3 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,900,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,300,000
#34 - Robert Chenoweth, Yellow Springs, 1B 65/75
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | -- | minor leagues |
| 2043 | 23 | 2.2 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 3.8 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $16,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,150,000
#33 - Gary Allen , Hawaii, 1B 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | 2.1 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 2.3 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 6.1 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $20,100,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,700,000
Somewhat similar players, it’s another round of pick ‘em, this time a three-pack special (with one more to go further down the list!) All three players are roughly the same age, play the same position, and have similar offensive profiles. O’Bryan is strongest in the field, although Allen is no slouch (and could emergency fill-in if needed at 3B). Chenoweth is easily the best athlete amongst the three. Allen and O’Bryan are in the midst of breakout seasons, and while Chenowich isn’t there yet, we’re all expecting it soon. Scouts believe O’Bryan could struggle against lefties but he’s been mashing all pitchers this year. Knowing all three general managers, they’ll get the most out of this triumvirate’s value as possible.
#32 - Roelof Klooster, New Orleans, C 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 23 | 2.3 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 24 | 3.7 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 25 | 5.4 | $4,500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $19,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,650,000
Klooster has seen his name thrusted firmly into the discussion of the best catcher in the Brewster. With a steady rise in offensive production the last three years and arguably having his best season behind the plate, Klooster’s value is red hot. The decision by the front office to stick with Klooster and deal away fellow catcher Pedro Gomez to Portland in 2043 for two solid prospects looks better every day.
#31 - Jim Antolin, Omaha, LF 65/70
PREVIOUS RANK: NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 25 | 1.2 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 26 | 0.9 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 27 | 6.2 | $750,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $8,350,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,175,000
Antolin lands here out of nowhere for two reasons: his breakout campaign (.954 OPS, on-pace for 50/50 season) and still with two years of arbitration left despite approaching his 28th birthday. Antolin’s value has already been tested, arriving from Montreal during last year’s winter meetings in a seven-player deal. An off-season that saw scouts upgrade his skills, Antolin has taken off and holds tremendous value if he can retain his offensive gains. That said, going back to 1 WAR-level production next year won’t even land the Canadian on the honorable mention list, even with his off-the-charts makeup.
#30 - Rex Foster, Yellow Spring, LF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 49
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | 3.1 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 23 | 5.1 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 5.6 | $4,700,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $5,666,667
It seems the only people who aren’t aware of Foster’s tremendous value is Foster himself and his agent. Signed to a ridiculous cheap deal in April buying out his arbitration years, Yellow Spring’s financial smoke and mirrors continues as they navigate keeping their deep roster of young stars below the league’s salary cap. What is interesting is that Foster has the ability to opt-out of his final year in 2047, something he will most definitely do to cash-in on what should be a free agency bidding war. Look for wily Nine GM Ron Collins to either flip Foster in the next two years and replenish his minor league riches or back-up the proverbial Brinks truck and offer an extension that causes Foster to re-consider leaving Yellow Springs.
#29 - Alex Ramírez, San Fernando, 3B 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 16
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 26 | 5.1 | $8,260,000 |
| 2043 | 27 | 8.3 | $10,750,000 |
| 2044 | 28 | 6.2 | $11,800,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $49,960,000
REMAINING AAV: $16,653,333
Ramirez is stud, there’s no question about it. His value has ranked between 11th and 32nd in every edition of the annual list. Thanks to a trade to hitter-friendly San Fernando, “Mirror” has caused the league to reflect on just how great he really is. Still, he’s nearing 30 and will likely opt-out of his final year to get one last mega free agent deal. Should the Bears trade him, he’ll certainly fetch much more than what it took to acquire him, proving his true value.
#28 - Félix Román, Boise, CF 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 29
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | 6.7 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 23 | 4.8 | $8,125,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 7.5 | $11,500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $29,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,900,000
Since 2041, only five players have accumulated more WAR than the Boise centerfielder. Roman will still just be 25 next Opening Day and with two years left of a team-friendly extension, his value remains strong after bouncing back from a “down” 2043 that saw him slash “only” .801. Can the Spuds afford another extension whilst also paying for Dennis French through 2048? We’ll soon see…
#27 - Bill Constable, Charm City, SP 50/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 43
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 19 | -- | minor leagues |
| 2043 | 20 | -- | minor leagues |
| 2044 | 21 | -- | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,625,000
Constable, the top prospect in the Brewster, was one of only two minor leaguers to make the Top 50 last year (New Orleans’ Mal Fountain the other). This year, he’s not only the only prospect, but he improved on his previous ranking. Scouts have upgraded their reports on the uber-talented southpaw over the last two years and is dominating since being promoted to Triple-A in July: 4-0, 2.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. Sky is the limit for Constable and that should strike fear in every Johnson League general manager and opposing batter.
#26 - Pedro Guzman, Phoenix, LF 70/80
PREVIOUS RANK:NR
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 21 | -0.8 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 22 | 0.6 | $500,000 |
| 2044 | 23 | 5.3 | $500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $4,320,000
Holy offensive firepower, Batman! On pace to knock 50 homers and an OPS+ north of 150, Guzman is already one of the premier sluggers in the game. Sure, he’s one dimensional, as he moves around the bases like a piano is tied to his back and a traffic cone has better range in the outfield, but that skill will play for any team. Once the #5-ranked prospect in all of baseball, Guzman has broken out big time. Quick, someone alert Marko that one of his players made the list and he should start buying out arbitration years before Guzman gets expensive.
#25 - Felipe Vega, Brooklyn LF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 35
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 23 | 5.4 | $500,000 |
| 2043 | 24 | 4.4 | $5,451,000 |
| 2044 | 25 | 6.8 | $7,470,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $10,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,200,000
Brooklyn GM Ben Heuring has made some trades this season in which he’s cited future financial flexibitly, which leaves one to believe that Vega will soon be offered a long-term extension to play out the rest of his 20s as a Robin. Sure, there is some risk for a team should they want to trade for Vega with just one year remaining, but barring any crazy demands, that team (or Brooklyn) should be happy seeing the immensely talented and popular outfielder ink a five or six year deal in excess of $100M. Vega’s timing of a career year, and on the heels of two straight Puckett Awards, guarantees a whopping payday sooner rather than later.
#24 - Julio Barajas, Rockville, RF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 39
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | 3.1 | $4,401,000 |
| 2043 | 23 | 4.4 | $6,500,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 7.8 | $6,500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $6,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,500,000
Just look at WAR pattern the last three seasons. After several years of somewhat anonymity amongst more hyped outfielders in the Johnson League, as well as playing in the shadow of stars on his own team, Barajas finally made an All-Star team this year and is making a case for a Silk Award. Like 25th-ranked Felipe Vega, the only thing preventing Barajas from being a top-20 or even top-10 value is that he’s set to hit free agency after next season. Will that happen? Doubtful, as Rockville, like so many other top front offices, has maneuvered other contracts and signings to be in the best position to retain and pay their young superstars. Barajas could jump up next year if team-friendly deal keeps him under control for five or six more seasons. Or perhaps his asking price will be so high that it only slightly hurts his value and he’s just another well-paid superstar.
#23 - Dennis French, Boise, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 17
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 25 | 8.0 | $11,187,500 |
| 2043 | 26 | 6.3 | $16,500,000 |
| 2044 | 27 | 7.8 | $19,000,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $72,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $18,000,000
#22 - Semei Kwakou, Louisville, RF 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 6
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 22 | 7.8 | $8,500,000 |
| 2043 | 23 | 6.1 | $8,500,000 |
| 2044 | 24 | 4.4 | $8,500,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $133,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $22,166,667
#21 - Dong-po Thum, Yellow Springs, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 11
| YEAR | AGE | WAR | SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2042 | 24 | 9.1 | $8,125,000 |
| 2043 | 25 | 5.2 | $11,750,000 |
| 2044 | 26 | 8.6 | $12,000,000 |
REMAINING CONTRACT: $119,750,000
REMAINING AAV: $19,958,333
Here’s a fun trio grouped together. Besides making boat-loads of money for the next half-decade, what do they all have in common? Each at one time or another topped this list in year’s prior: French was #1 in the debut edition backin 2039, Kwakou was the top dog a year later in 2040 and Thum was #1 in 2042. In each instance, they were at or near the top of the game in production before signing extensions. French was locked up by the Spuds in the 2042-2043 off-season and this year saw both Kwakou and Thum sign six-year deals with their respective clubs. As is the case very year, one can argue that there isn’t much value in a player making $20M a year no matter how good they are. Still, when free agents are signing deals of $25 to $30M and are not even close to the talent levels of these three, there lies your value, especially for their own teams. French’s deal is pretty straight forward: a slightly front-loaded contract with an AAV lower than Kwakou’s or Thum’s. French is yet again having a Silk-worthy season and is obviously worth all the clams. Kwakou and Thum both have multiple opt-outs in their extensions, so it’s not as easy to forecast just how long their stays will be with Lousiville and Yellow Springs, respectively. Kwakou has seen his production dip the last two years but he’s still on another level, plus he’s still only 24. Thum, by virtue of being a five-tool player with defensive versatility, leads the pack on this list but really, any team would push their own mothers off a cliff to obtain their services. How would you group these three future Hall of Famers and would there be much separation between them on a list like this? Please comment below, smash that subscribe button, try the veal and be sure to tip your waitress. Thank you for listening to my TedTalk.
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Next up is the Top 20…who would be your top five for 2044?
Last year:
#5 – Juan Donestevez
#4 – Theo Bourges
#3 – Juan Rivera
#2 – Larry Stinson
#1 – Alaric Wullenweber
The answers -- and much much more -- coming in a few days...thanks for reading!
