I should note that this will miss some guys still in DFA, and will obviously miss players who have not signed. It also will use overall ratings based on position regardless of whether that’s “right” or not. An 80 reliever is an 80 reliever. Also, remember, this is only players in the minor leagues. If you have a fresh0faced rookie call up on your active roster, he’s no longer considered part of your minor leagues for this study.
This season I’ve started a new (and more appropriate) cut in which I filter out older players (26 and older). So here I’m going to drop the original numbers first, then probably do another reply post with the new metric. This will allow me to show how systems have progressed in the old way, then from next year on focus on the younger player set.
First, though, let’s look at how the environment is changing.
| Year | 80 | 75 | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 | Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2041 | 20 | 11 | 19 | 25 | 46 | 57 | 146 | 337 | 710 | 1371 |
| 2042 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 53 | 150 | 409 | 789 | 1489 |
Last year there were 121 players in BBA minor league systems who were rated 60 Potential or higher. This year there are only 88. Note, though, that overall there are more players included in the mix—all in the 40 and 45 ranges. Maybe it’s all tied into relative ratings. Dunno. I suspect it’s as much tied to bit of an abrasive development engine, too.
Bottom line, regardless of cause, is that it appears the glut of those big draft classes are now getting seriously passed into the majors, so maybe relative differences in the systems are changing a bit.
Now, On with the Show
Here are the BBA numbers as of early June 2042. (Remember that wTot = weighted score of all players, wTop = weighted scores of only players of POT >=60). I will speak mostly of the wTot metric, which I like because in my opinion it gives a better view of overall system value. Your mileage can, of course, vary.
You can scan this till your own cows come home, but a few teams of note:
1) Look at Chris Wilson’s progression in Portland. The expansion club is building on the long game, from the bottom up, and it’s showing.
2) Brooklyn also took a major step up, but mostly with a pile of “50” rated players.
3) Something tells me Stephen Lane’s seat is not going to be too hot for too long. They jump from #21 to #8 in one season.
4) And here comes Nashville. You knew the Commish would not have a system in the 20s for long.
5) Jacksonville, under Gregg Greathouse has made a move up, as has shoeless in California. The Crusaders adding relative value to their system while competing is a good thing for California fans.
On the downside, though …
1) Louisville continues to drop through the ranks. They took a quantum leap in 2039, and have been living off that surge ever since.
2) Likewise Hawaii and Phoenix. That said, The Talons are still strong at the top, but lose system value for their lack of depth relative to other franchises (Their wTop is #10).
3) Yellow Springs drops out of the top 5 for the first time in awhile as a lot of its name prospects have graduated into the bigs.
4) Charlotte’s fade doesn’t bode well. By OOTP their system is #3, but most of the players on their list are now in the majors so they don’t qualify for our system.
If we look at it by division we see that the JLA is now stepping into the top position. If you trust this metric, you’d say the Atlantic’s time in the muck is soon to come to an end. The Heartland, which has long been at the top of the table, is now at the bottom.
| Div | 80 | 75 | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 | Tot | wTot | wRk | wTop | wTopRk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 95 | 204 | 540 | 365.5 | 4 | 94 | 4 |
| FLP | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 86 | 159 | 368 | 378.75 | 3 | 148 | 2 |
| JLA | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 105 | 221 | 314 | 472.75 | 1 | 170 | 1 |
| JLF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 31 | 123 | 205 | 415 | 390.75 | 2 | 125 | 3 |
On the next rock I’ll post the “new” method, which removes all players who are 26 and older.
