Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Discuss the Brewster Baseball Association here!
User avatar
usnspecialist
League Advisor
Posts: 2756
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:39 am
Location: Manama, Bahrain
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 34 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by usnspecialist » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:16 pm

tops in power and #2 in eye, pretty clear indication of how I build my team. Ted also nailed my staff (although im not sure why he is surprised that it looks weird since my M.O has been pretty consistent since I joined the league). I have no problem giving up HR if they are all solo shots because im striking everyone else out.
Randy Weigand
Havana Sugar Kings/San Fernando Bears: 2032-
453-357

Landis Champion- 2034
Johnson Champion- 2034
Frick Champion- 2036, 2037
Johnson League Southern- 2034
Frick League Pacific- 2037
Wild Card- 2033, 2035, 2036

Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:18 pm

Ted wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:37 pm
Ted wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:32 pm
ae37jr wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:28 pm
Pitcher control has been over valued the past few years. There are so few hitters with good eyes and even fewer that are good hitters too. Of all the hitter/pitcher main ratings, control is by far the least important right now IMO.
Good call. I've definitely been overvaluing it. You're dead on about the trend with the eye rating on batters. This ties in nicely to how the best offenses all have high EYE ratings as well.
ON the other hand, maybe the best offenses are only the best because they are feasting on the teams disregarding control? It's an interesting match up issue. I still fell, Alan, that you're right about it being overvalued, but I wonder how much? It would be interesting to see if there's a notable difference in offensive/run prevention consistency for different hitting/pitching, but I've asked enough of Ron today already.
The way I'd characterize this is that Control hasn't really been "over-valued" so much as a lack of control is probably being "over-worried." As Eye drops, low Control pitchers can survive. As Eye rises, low Control pitchers will struggle more.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
agrudez
General Manager
Posts: 7657
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:30 am
Has thanked: 18 times
Been thanked: 39 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by agrudez » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:48 pm

RonCo wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:14 pm
agrudez wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:04 pm
The file still has an internal number of walks that it is trying to mete out in a season. If the league average EYE drops from 8 to 4 it just means the guys with a 4 will start producing like the guys with an 8 used to. And the pitchers with higher CON will give out less of those than the ones with lower.
This is incorrect.
From the manual:
"One important point to understand about the league totals and modifiers is that, unlike player creation modifiers, league totals directly affect the statistical output of the game engine. They have no impact at all on player ratings, potential, or player development. Even if you reduce your home run league total modifier to 0.150, your slugger with a 100 Power rating would still have 100 Power, and he would still hit more home runs than other players. But the numbers of home runs across the league overall would be drastically reduced."

Which part is incorrect and how best can I contact Markus about the error?
League Director: Kyle “agrudez” Stever*
*Also serves as chief muckraker
-Ron, 2025 media guide

Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:53 pm

The manual doesn't say what your post says. We've been through this before. :)
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:55 pm

League totals affect the statistical output of the game by interacting with player ratings through Log5 equations, not by defining a number of stats to mete out.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:04 pm

In other words: Assuming pitcher control is held constant, if the EYE rating falls, the walks that occur in the league will fall. The level to which it falls will be defined by the extent of the fall. This is testable and always happens.

This exactly what the user manual actually says...though it's using the term "league total modifiers" rather than "league totals," which reverses the polarity of the alteration.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:04 pm

I go out of my way to say when I don't actually know something. But this I know. :)
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4560
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:40 pm

RonCo wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:53 pm
The manual doesn't say what your post says. We've been through this before. :)
Okay, now I'm confused, because Kyle's quote is directly from the manual. It's part of a larger section, but what he posted is word for word out of the OOTP 19 manual.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4560
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:43 pm

It also says this: "OOTP generates a league total for each category, noted in the left column. The league total acts as the basis for the calculation engine. In historical leagues, these are the real league totals from the imported year. In fictional leagues it's the major league totals from the most recently completed season. The league totals do NOT directly equate to how many of these events you will see in your league! They are simply a basis for calculation, which ensures the ratios of these events remain accurate compared to real life. Adjusting league totals is a little counterintuitive. The results in your league are inversely related to the league totals. In other words, if you increase the triples total from 1,000 to 2,000, it would actually result in FEWER triples in your league! We do not recommend adjusting your league totals directly unless you're just messing around, or you are experienced in working with our league totals!"

The key part I highlighted. I think we can all agree though, that OOTP has one of the shittiest, most opaque confusing manuals ever.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:55 pm

The problem comes because Markus no longer discusses the actual equations in public like he once did.

The Log5 equations are quite clear, and when you spend some time understanding how they work you can read the manual and see exactly what it means. I'm pretty sure I've posted them around here before. Let me look.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4560
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:05 pm

RonCo wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:55 pm
The problem comes because Markus no longer discusses the actual equations in public like he once did.

The Log5 equations are quite clear, and when you spend some time understanding how they work you can read the manual and see exactly what it means. I'm pretty sure I've posted them around here before. Let me look.
I've looked them up before. I don't disbelieve you. The manual just sucks. Period. There are billion settings in OOTP, and for the more complex ones it either doesn't explain anything at all or it makes confusing statements that seem to contradict each other like the ones Kyle and I posted. Instead of those multiple paragraphs of obsfucating BS, it should just say "league totals do X". Adjusting this does "X". The idea that increasing the total in the settings decreases the actual number of events is ridiculous. That's a bad user interface. You shouldn't have to understand Log5 equations to operate a video game. Make the settings do what they intuitively should (i.e. hide the confusing part from the user), and have the manual state what altering a setting will do with examples. It's not that tough of a concept.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:10 pm

I've posted links to them here before....but bottom line:

-----------------------------------

Like I said, Markus has talked about these things on the open forum in the past: With as much confidence as I can tell you about anything in the game, the entire results engine uses three variables to resolve every step in the base process for calculating results.

1) The batters expected rate (BAVG)
2) The pitcher expected rate (PAVG)
3) The league expected rate (LgAVG) << Comes from the League Totals

The final chances of something happening then follow Bill James' equation (which is really just a special case of an Odds Ratio):

ExAvg = ((BAVG * PAVG) / LgAVG) / ((BAVG * PAVG) / LgAVG + ((1-BAVG)*(1-PAVG)/(1-LgAvg)))

When you really spend time understanding this, you realize exactly what the manual means. You realize that the game is not attempting to distribute a pool of stats (like Kyle often suggests it is). In addition, you also can run literally hundreds of test leagues and see the results follow pretty much exactly what you would expect.

*** There's no great advantage to knowing any of this. Like I say, it's on the open forum back in the old-old days when Markus used to try to explain what league totals are. I mean, other than the oddity with AVK/Stuff I've talked about before, which is really deep techy neep, and is very tiny in the end, there's nothing I can do to gain an edge because I understand it. All understanding it does is keep me from getting frustrated or screwed up when things go haywire. I'm completely available to anyone who wants to talk their way through it.

Bottom line, though: If you understand how these work, you understand why these "average plate appearance" figures are so valuable. They each map into an expected rate (which you can calculate in the game's editor). Knowing those, and knowing the league totals (ratio of the values), you can predict with extremely good accuracy what the league-wide results will be. And those results will NOT match the League Totals in any way.

Extra Example: Here are two "League Totals" that, if you plug them into any game, will give the same results:

At Bats: 165000
Hits: 41000
Doubles: 7000
Triples: 400
Home Runs 5700
Base on Balls: 16000
HBP: 1500
Strikeouts: 33000
BABIP: .284

At Bats: 1650
Hits: 410
Doubles: 70
Triples: 4
Home Runs 57
Base on Balls: 160
HBP: 15
Strikeouts: 330
BABIP: .284
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:12 pm

Ted wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:05 pm
RonCo wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:55 pm
The problem comes because Markus no longer discusses the actual equations in public like he once did.

The Log5 equations are quite clear, and when you spend some time understanding how they work you can read the manual and see exactly what it means. I'm pretty sure I've posted them around here before. Let me look.
I've looked them up before. I don't disbelieve you. The manual just sucks. Period. There are billion settings in OOTP, and for the more complex ones it either doesn't explain anything at all or it makes confusing statements that seem to contradict each other like the ones Kyle and I posted. Instead of those multiple paragraphs of obsfucating BS, it should just say "league totals do X". Adjusting this does "X". The idea that increasing the total in the settings decreases the actual number of events is ridiculous. That's a bad user interface. You shouldn't have to understand Log5 equations to operate a video game. Make the settings do what they intuitively should (i.e. hide the confusing part from the user), and have the manual state what altering a setting will do with examples. It's not that tough of a concept.
I understand...but people have a very hard time understanding that adjusting a league total down will actually increase an output (and vise versa)...except, of course, AB, which works the opposite way.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:03 pm

Ted wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:05 pm
I've looked them up before. I don't disbelieve you. The manual just sucks. Period. There are billion settings in OOTP, and for the more complex ones it either doesn't explain anything at all or it makes confusing statements that seem to contradict each other like the ones Kyle and I posted. Instead of those multiple paragraphs of obsfucating BS, it should just say "league totals do X". Adjusting this does "X". The idea that increasing the total in the settings decreases the actual number of events is ridiculous. That's a bad user interface. You shouldn't have to understand Log5 equations to operate a video game. Make the settings do what they intuitively should (i.e. hide the confusing part from the user), and have the manual state what altering a setting will do with examples. It's not that tough of a concept.
Well...yes. The manual sucks. But the algorithm is ... hard to explain without the equations.

The problem there is that everyone wants "LEAGUE TOTALS" to represent something real, but they do not. As designed, League totals are artificial seeds placed into the game's engines in order to create outcomes. If you balance those totals based on the equations, you can make the league create results you want...but the numbers you have to put into the engine are completely dependent upon the ratings in your actual league.

The best I can really do to equate them to something real is that they can be viewed as representing outside influences on the game (mound height and whatnot, but that's really stretching things).

The great thing is, unless you're a commissioner, all you need to know is that less EYE/more CON will result in fewer walks across the league. Etc.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:22 pm

Sorry to ramble and rant here...but I'm on a roll.

The thing you don't want to assume is that the stats output of the league is clamped to a value, regardless of ratings.

To the best of my ability to define them, here's what the league totals ACTUALLY ARE: an artificial set of numbers that will create the ratios of outcomes we want the game to use as representative of a match up of an average batter and hitter (at this league level). Barring some extremely interesting situations, however, this is totally meaningless as a physical thing. A vast majority of the time, you are lying to it...

For example, here are slash lines our league's TOTALS (per the thread on the site here) suggest are its "Average," versus what it's actually doing:

Code: Select all

	TOTALS	ACTUAL
AVG	.264	.259
OBP	.335	.326
SLG	.427	.437
BABIP	.299	.293

So we're telling the game engine to operate as if our average plate appearance will create a .264/.335/.437 slash and a .299 BABIP. But we're really creating a .259/.326/.437 (.293) stat line. This is all good. It just means that League Totals are NOT something the game engine clamps to.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:41 pm

Going one layer of the onion down, here are our BBA League totals on a rate basis (after modifiers are applied), vs. the performance of our league. Clearly, the league totals do not even "latch" at the ratio total--which is the one place where the user guide is factually wrong.

Code: Select all

	TOTALS	BBA	Delta
H/AB	0.267	0.259	-0.007
2B/AB	0.044	0.051	0.007
3B/AB	0.005	0.006	0.001
HR/AB	0.031	0.038	0.007
BB/PA	0.078	0.082	0.004
K/AB	0.202	0.209	0.007
So, no...the game engine is not distributing a predefined number of outcomes. Instead, it is using the relative ratings of hitters and pitchers actually in the league and an artificial seed to create a set of outcomes that we can control through that arbitrary seed.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:03 pm

And finally (hah!), relative to the online manual quoted:
From the manual:
"One important point to understand about the league totals and modifiers is that, unlike player creation modifiers, league totals directly affect the statistical output of the game engine.
This is correct. Player creation modifiers affect player ratings, hence affect statistical outcomes _indirectly_. League Totals and their modifiers directly influence the outcomes because they are used as LgAvg in the Log5 equations.
They have no impact at all on player ratings, potential, or player development.
Again, correct. League Totals/Modifiers will not influence ratings or development
Even if you reduce your home run league total modifier to 0.150, your slugger with a 100 Power rating would still have 100 Power,
Again, yes. A hitter with 100 Power will always have 100 Power. But that 100 Power will create a different HR rate under different league totals.

One thing to note here is the use of the "league total MODIFIER." (rather than the total itself). The modifiers were a feature created to address the counter-intuitive nature of league totals. It's an interface in which raising the value increases a stat output, and vice versa. All it does is calculate a new league total (and hence a new artificial seed) without the user needing to do it. So, in the example given, _reducing_ the modifier to 0.15 is the same as _increasing_ the base league total by an appropriate rate.
and he would still hit more home runs than other players.
Well, he will hit more home runs than players who are rated at less than 100 Power. Guys rated more than 100 Power will always hit more than your 100 Power guy. Left unsaid, I guess, is that your 100 Power guy will hit fewer home runs under the modified total (while still hitting more than lower-rated players).
But the numbers of home runs across the league overall would be drastically reduced."
Correct. This is a direct statement that the number of home runs is not fixed for distribution.


So, none of the manual here is incorrect. :)
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
Ted
General Manager
Posts: 4560
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:50 pm
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 79 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by Ted » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:24 pm

Ron, I really do appreciate the detailed explanation. You have enhanced my understanding of how this game works. I do stand by my statement that the manual is bunk. Even if it is correct, it shouldn't take this much detail to explain itself. I mean, you had to pick apart the whole thing, with examples and do math to show that the game does what the manual says it does. It pretty easy to see how someone could read it and get the wrong idea, and the level of effort you had to put for to "explain" the manual speaks to the fact that it is not very clear.
Ted Schmidt
California Crusaders (2021-present)
Image

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:36 pm

I agree. But it's also very hard to explain.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

User avatar
RonCo
League Director
Posts: 10131
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 195 times
Been thanked: 99 times

Re: Ratings by Plate Appearance?

Post by RonCo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:03 am

FWIW, thanks to this discussion, I just made a proposal to the developers that would actually "fix" this. So thanks for your patience.
Yellow Springs Nine
Playoff Regular, Landis Averse

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “League Chatter”