Greenville Moonshiners
vs.
Valencia Stars
... Made the Playoffs
Valencia: A perennial powerhouse that hasn't lost the Pacific Division since 1992 won going away, finishing 11 games ahead of Vancouver. The Mounties actually led the division briefly in mid-June before Valencia quickly created separation as the Mounties forgot how to win.
Greenville: Had missed the playoffs since 1991 but took advantage of a plummeting Baltimore squad to tie for the Atlantic Division title with a 96-66 record, best in the Johnson League and third-best in the entire MBBA. The Moonshiners lost a one-game playoff for the actual division title, though, sending the Monarchs off to face the Midwest-winning Madison Wolves.
... Finished the Season
The Stars: Went 15-10 in September, a better winning percentage (.600) than they posted for the entire season (.549). They might have shown signs of weakness in August by going 14-14, but quickly killed those thoughts by winning their first five games of the month and then finished strongly with four straight victories.
The Moonshiners: A strong 16-11 September after falling from first place thanks to a combined record of 24-30 in July and August. However, they could have won the division outright by doing better than 1-3 against Louisville in the final series of the season.
... Hit the Ball
Valencia: Not very well. Yes, the Stars had four regulars who posted an OPS of .827 or better, but as a team they were average or worse than average in the Johnson League in nearly every category:
-- 8th in AVG (.269)
-- 12th in OBP (.321)
-- 7th in SLG (.442)
-- 8th in OPS (.763)
-- 8th(t) in Runs (779)
-- 7th in Hits (1,539)
-- 6th in EBH (521)
-- 12th in BB (406)
-- 12th in SB (35)
The team was slightly better in hitting homers (5th, 225) and not striking out (5th, 1,143).
Greenville: The Moonshiners were something of a mirror image of the Stars when it came to batting during the regular season. Greenville finished in the top three of all but two major offensive categories:
-- 3rd in AVG (.287)
-- 3rd in OBP (.351)
-- 3rd in SLG (.471)
-- 2nd in Runs (935)
-- 3rd in Hits (1,643)
-- 3rd(t) in EBH (543)
-- 3rd in HR (236)
-- 2nd in BB (553)
-- 1st in Ks (1,009)
The team was very slightly worse in OPS (.822, 4th - really tied for third if you round to three decimal places) and stolen bases (117, 4th)
... Threw the Ball
The Stars: The team's arms were as outstanding as its bats were pedestrian. Valencia finished with the top ranking in all pitching categories but BABIP (.311, 4th) and walks (475, 5th) -- and those leading numbers weren't even close. Their ERA was 0.29 better than the second-place team (more on that in a moment) and they allowed 30 fewer runs, 30 fewer hits, 14 fewer homers and struck out 47 more batters than the second-place teams. Sure, some of that is thanks to the team's pitchers park (.940 AVG, .810 2BH, .700 3BH, 1.060 HR), but even on the road the team put up a better-than-average 4.40 ERA.
The Moonshiners: Greenville wasn't as good on the mound as it was on the plate, but it was close. The team finished in the top three of six pitching categories:
-- 2nd in ERA (4.04)
-- 3rd in Starters' ERA (4.00)
-- 3rd in Relievers' ERA (4.16)
-- 2nd in Runs Allowed (721)
-- 2nd in HR Allowed (164)
-- 3rd in BB Allowed (397)
and was worse than league-average in just one (1,162 strikeouts, 9th). Somehow, the team actually posted a worse ERA on the road (4.40) than it did overall, despite hurling in a slight pitchers' park (1.040 AVG, .940 2BH, .900 3BH, 1.080 HR).
... Caught the Ball
Valencia: The Stars were basically league-average (101) in double plays (101) both errors (103), as well as fielding percentage (.983). They did have one of the worst zone ratings in league at -30.3, though they had a fairly fine DEF (.680) and BABIP (.311).
Greenville: The Moonshiners were slightly better than average in double plays (105) and quite a bit better when it came to booting the ball (89 errors for a .986 fielding percentage). The team had the second-best zone rating (34.8) in the Johnson League, though it's DEF (.678) and BABIP (.317) were slightly worse than Valencia's, somehow.
... Match Up
During the season: Greenville took the season series, 7-5, but the teams scored exactly the same number of runs (43). Every three-game series finished 2-1 for the winning team, with Greenville winning both home series and taking one in Valencia. However, the Stars won the final series between the teams, a three-game bout in late August.
When Valencia is at bat: Greenville seems to have the advantage here with a better-than-average pitching staff against a worse-than-average offense. Top pitching usually beats top hitting in this game, so the Stars likely will struggle to score, especially against the Moonshiners' top three starters. The area most likely to be an issue for Greenville will be the long ball. Valencia has some batters who can put the ball over the wall, and Greenville (especially at home) can give up a few blasts. The Stars don't don't draw walks and the Moonshiners don't hand them out, so those homers likely will be of the solo variety. Of course, Greenville doesn't strike guys out and Valencia's batters don't swing and miss all that often, so anything could happen when the Stars put the bat on the ball.
When Greenville is at bat: Both Valencia's pitching staff and Greenville's offense are two of the league's best. Again, though, pitching seems to come out on top of these match-ups more often than not. Greenville probably will struggle to score runs, but likely will be able to get a few across the plate here and there. The Moonshiners' best hopes are a bit oxymoronic: draw some walks -- since the Stars are just average in that category -- and put the ball into play and hope the Valencia fielders can't get to it.
When they're in Greenville: The Stars were nearly as good on the road (44-37) as they were at home (45-36), so they won't be scared by the Moonshiners' park. However, Greenville was stellar at home (51-30) and likely won't be scared, either, especially since the team knows Valencia hurlers aren't as good away from California. In series where runs are almost certain to be at a premium, having last bats could prove to be a huge benefit for Greenville.
When they're in Valencia: Remove the one-game playoff loss to Baltimore and Greenville was exactly as good on the road (45-36) as Valencia was at home. Runs should be even harder to come by in this park, which makes the Stars' last bats every bit as important as the Moonshiners' in Greenville, if not more so. Could Greenville's better bats prove to be the difference? Don't necessarily count on it. It's more likely Valencia's gloves and range (or lack thereof) lead to an important run.
... Will Finish
This is a classic matchup of outstanding pitching against great hitting, at least on one side. The other side is good pitching against average hitting, which probably evens everything out. Considering how close the regular-season series was, it's hard to see this playoff series being over quickly. It should go at least 6 games, and 7 would be far from a surprise. With everything else being equal, Greenville's extra game at home should prove to be the difference.
Prediction: Moonshiners in 6 (maybe 7)
