BBA Today #54 - Shawn Huber, the Uber Reliever

[Ted]

Ron Collins and Ted Schmidt give an update on Aki Kondo, express some thoughts about the Chicago Black Sox, and comment on Las Vegas shopping Shawn Huber, as well as the new wave of super relievers in general.

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[CTBrewCrew]

Teed up for my Monday morning stroll...

[aaronweiner]

From my Black Sox preview in the Media Guide:

"Consider for a second every other FL playoff team and their top player: YS has Dong-po Thum, Tiernan O’Macken, and Ernesto Ramos; SFB has Alex Ramirez; HAW has Ernest McBride, LOU has Semei Kwakou and Theo Bourges. I like Rocky Wattson, but his skillset doesn’t scream superstar. Ditto Amayas Moelling, who has just come into his own and is likely benefiting from the friendly confines of Black Sox Park. The Black Sox responded to this glaring need by going out this offseason and signing...Pancho German, weakly augmenting something already a strength, to a deal where they’ll be awfully lucky if he opts out. Be bold! Do something unexpected! Deal for Angel Zalapa or Aaron Haney! Pay for Dong-Po Thum, if YS will deal him to you! Try Andrew Torres! Or the Black Sox are destined to be what they are right now: a good team who will wither under the bright lights of the playoffs."

(Sacramento omitted from this because, um.)

So yeah.

Oh, and German's been pretty good but you could easily argue he's not been $13 million worth of good much less $70 million worth of good.

[niles08]

Let's hope that Kondo continues on with that low ERA now that he is settled in. Last sim Dooley & Kondo both had complete games so no complaints there. I do agree that something will likely have to give with Lima. A bullpen spot is possible since Amaya & Garcia are not likely to continue on with their current production in relief.

[shoeless.db]

From my Black Sox preview in the Media Guide:

(Sacramento omitted from this because, um.)

If my competitiveness was a person, you just kicked him straight in the balls.

[aaronweiner]

My aim is true.

[aaronweiner]

I'd also like to point out that I should get mega bonus points for Andrew Torres, who's absolutely en fuego this year.

[HoosierVic]

From my Black Sox preview in the Media Guide:

"Consider for a second every other FL playoff team and their top player: YS has Dong-po Thum, Tiernan O’Macken, and Ernesto Ramos; SFB has Alex Ramirez; HAW has Ernest McBride, LOU has Semei Kwakou and Theo Bourges. I like Rocky Wattson, but his skillset doesn’t scream superstar. Ditto Amayas Moelling, who has just come into his own and is likely benefiting from the friendly confines of Black Sox Park. The Black Sox responded to this glaring need by going out this offseason and signing...Pancho German, weakly augmenting something already a strength, to a deal where they’ll be awfully lucky if he opts out. Be bold! Do something unexpected! Deal for Angel Zalapa or Aaron Haney! Pay for Dong-Po Thum, if YS will deal him to you! Try Andrew Torres! Or the Black Sox are destined to be what they are right now: a good team who will wither under the bright lights of the playoffs."

(Sacramento omitted from this because, um.)

So yeah.

Oh, and German's been pretty good but you could easily argue he's not been $13 million worth of good much less $70 million worth of good.

All of that is true enough.

My offensive plan had hinged around Hao Hang, who came completely apart when the league offensive adjustment was made. I also violated my own plan by chasing some high-contact guys instead of high OBP guys, which has come back to bite me. Also, the infield defense has unraveled (including Wattson, for some reason).

The other issue is that, despite a good showing in the bigs late last season and in Spring Training, McClain just isn't ready yet. I've given him 3 full months to settle in and it hasn't happened, so he's headed back to AAA for a little more development. The German signing was intended to take care of just that contingency and then move into the 5 spot next year after Nicto leaves. I know I overpaid for him, but I had the money and Wattson and Moelling are the only two high-priced guys I really want to try to retain long-term.

I understand the notion of going after someone like Haney, but I just don't want to. None of those guys in your list would do enough to offset shipping away the pitching talent (which is what it would take to acquire them) I've spent several seasons trying to assemble. I'd rather patch together an offense than try to rebuild the rotation.

I'll give this setup a chance through the end of this season and into 2045. If it doesn't work, well, we'll draw up a new plan.

That's the beauty of fake baseball: you can always try new approaches because the stakes couldn't possibly be lower!

[Ted]

@aaronweiner and @HoosierVic . Great discourse guys. If it didn't come across as well in the podcast (I have an idea and then Ron and I get to talking and ...), what Vic is going through right now is very similar to what I ran into with my mid 2020's Crusaders teams. He's got half the recipe and is trying to figure out how to piece together the other half without screwing up the part he's got right. It's really tough to do without starting with a complete tank job.

To expand on that last sentence. All talent erodes, but there is a "critical mass" of talent that suddenly puts you ahead of the pack, and through good trades and extensions, you can almost make that reaction self perpetuating. The easiest way to get there is to have 3-4 years of last place teams and accrue a ton of young stars through the draft and fire sales. If you don't do that, you can still get there, but there's a lot of trial and error, and the idea of not sapping away at your strength (be it hitting or pitching) to get the other half going is absolutely the right track from an "ease of seeing what you have" standpoint. In practice, there's no difference between a 5 win batter and a 5 win pitcher, but a mixed group 85 win team is much harder to mentally sort that a all pitching or all hitting 85 win team.

[aaronweiner]

Well, you fastened onto Haney. Who wouldn't want Haney? And you're right, he'd be expensive as hell.

But I also brought up Angel Zalapa, whose contract is a bummer but who can definitely play. Take his contract, and he's gotta be cheap; I bet they could have gotten him for Juan Nicto and Grant Lee. Probably still could. Clears $19 million a year off Valencia's cap and gives them an easier rebuild.

Also brought up Andrew Torres, which was a zero risk type because he's a free agent.

(Keep in mind that this is INSTEAD of German, because obviously Zalapa becomes a cap casualty.)

There were others, of course. The point they made in the podcast this time is that there just isn't a lot of interest in those types of players right now. Why not? Well, they don't really fit most teams. Most teams don't actually need a player like that to improve, or they would make very insubstantial improvements by getting someone like that.

Chicago is such a team that could have used some star power to move forward. Instead they've watched other teams pass them.

[aaronweiner]

Also, I listened to the rest.

I'd rather have $12 million worth of Huber than any number of 3.5 ERA relievers at $4 million. It's a consistency question, not a talent question. Those guys will be up and down and Huber will be up and further up and your eyes bulge a little every time he blows one.

[Ted]

Also, I listened to the rest.

I'd rather have $12 million worth of Huber than any number of 3.5 ERA relievers at $4 million. It's a consistency question, not a talent question. Those guys will be up and down and Huber will be up and further up and your eyes bulge a little every time he blows one.

This was assuming consistent 3.5 era guys. They do exist. I've had plenty over the years. It's a matter of perception. If you see a guy put up a 3.5 era last year, yeah, he may not be a 3.5 era guy, and lots of people make the mistake of paying him like one. But 3.2, 3.8, 3.4,2.9, 4.0. That's a 3.5 era guy. There are lots of them. Many more than there are Huber. And I would be the functional difference between 3.2 era and 3.8 era out of the bullpen in any given year is almost negligible.

In a vacuum, I take Huber in a heartbeat. If I already had a solid bullpen, and I had a choice of adding Huber at 12 mil or a 3.5 guy at 4 mil, I'd take the cheaper guy some of the time. All Huber would do is pull innings off guy I'm perfectly happy hiving in games for a what is likely a pretty marginal upgrade.

[bschr682]

On the Huber talk. I think he and Grady and the like really, really shine on teams that don’t have 5 quality starters. They soak up so many high quality innings that you can throw roster spots at weird things like openers.

[niles08]

Well, you fastened onto Haney. Who wouldn't want Haney? And you're right, he'd be expensive as hell.

But I also brought up Angel Zalapa, whose contract is a bummer but who can definitely play. Take his contract, and he's gotta be cheap; I bet they could have gotten him for Juan Nicto and Grant Lee. Probably still could. Clears $19 million a year off Valencia's cap and gives them an easier rebuild.

Also brought up Andrew Torres, which was a zero risk type because he's a free agent.

(Keep in mind that this is INSTEAD of German, because obviously Zalapa becomes a cap casualty.)

There were others, of course. The point they made in the podcast this time is that there just isn't a lot of interest in those types of players right now. Why not? Well, they don't really fit most teams. Most teams don't actually need a player like that to improve, or they would make very insubstantial improvements by getting someone like that.

Chicago is such a team that could have used some star power to move forward. Instead they've watched other teams pass them.

Good luck trading at all with Valencia. I sent him a PM on the boards last Monday and it's still sitting in my outbox because he hasn't visited the boards since last Sunday lol. I also sent him a message on slack. I was after Zalapa before I settled for Beltran.

[RonCo]

It’s a fun question because there are so many reasonable answers…

Here’s a comparison between two teams, one with a 150 IP reliever and one with three very good relievers at 80 IP. You can play with this a hundred ways, of course—asking yourself what is easier to find or afford or whatever. Ted’s point on injury insurance is a good one, too. What happens if you put all your eggs in one basket and then a super-reliever gets hurt…

Anyway…

With Super Reliever:

	IP	ER	ERA
SuperRel	150	42	2.52
Other	90	42	4.20
	240	84	3.15

Without:

	IP	ER	ERA
Rel1	80	28	3.15
Rel2	80	28	3.15
Rel3	80	28	3.15
	240	84	3.15

Both result in 84 ER in 240 IP, so same overall “value.” Aaron’s reliability or consistency conversation can go either way. Arguably, the version with three bullpen guys should make the “team” more consistent.

On the other hand, it should be “easy” to fine 4.20 ERA for 90 IP…and if you can find 3.80 ERA for those, then all the better for the team with the super-reliever.

Brett’s point is taken, too…one team may well value the super-reliever more if that player fills a niche they just can’t fill.

Bottom line that I think everyone can agree with is that it’s always great to have players capable of being stars on your roster.

[RonCo]

I hadn't done the table above when we talked, but that's why I balked at the 3.60 or 3.40 level for a "good" reliever. If all you can field are three 3.40 relievers, the guy with the super IP guy only has to find 90 IP at 5.40 to make that simple math line up in his favor.

This makes some sense in today's BBA, especially, where the league average bullpen ERA is 3.71.

If your top line bullpen guys are throwing 3.40s and 3.60s, you're probably hosed.

[RonCo]

Here's another variant...assuming you have a super reliever and can find league average performance for 90 IP, how good does the team with the Rule of Three going for it need to be for the math to even out?

	IP	ER	ERA
SuperRel	150	35	2.10
Other	90	37	3.70
	240	72	2.70

	IP	ER	ERA
Rel1	80	24	2.70
Rel2	80	24	2.70
Rel3	80	24	2.70
	240	72	2.70

Answer: your other three guys need to be 2.70 ERA guys. If you can find those, you're probably happier than if you focus on the super reliever, just for injury insurance????

[aaronweiner]

Good luck trading at all with Valencia. I sent him a PM on the boards last Monday and it's still sitting in my outbox because he hasn't visited the boards since last Sunday lol. I also sent him a message on slack. I was after Zalapa before I settled for Beltran.

If Valencia has jumped ship you'll have no trouble at all trading with Valencia soon other than some degree of neurosis.

[aaronweiner]

Here's another variant...assuming you have a super reliever and can find league average performance for 90 IP, how good does the team with the Rule of Three going for it need to be for the math to even out?

	IP	ER	ERA
SuperRel	150	35	2.10
Other	90	37	3.70
	240	72	2.70

	IP	ER	ERA
Rel1	80	24	2.70
Rel2	80	24	2.70
Rel3	80	24	2.70
	240	72	2.70

Answer: your other three guys need to be 2.70 ERA guys. If you can find those, you're probably happier than if you focus on the super reliever, just for injury insurance????

I agree with this logic. But that's hard to do unless you have a very fertile farm system.

[niles08]

Good luck trading at all with Valencia. I sent him a PM on the boards last Monday and it's still sitting in my outbox because he hasn't visited the boards since last Sunday lol. I also sent him a message on slack. I was after Zalapa before I settled for Beltran.

If Valencia has jumped ship you'll have no trouble at all trading with Valencia soon other than some degree of neurosis.

I have no idea what this says or means. I googled Neurosis and became even more lost. Google says. Besides..he is still exporting he just doesn't visit the boards lol.

a relatively mild mental illness that is not caused by organic disease, involving symptoms of stress (depression, anxiety, obsessive behaviour, hypochondria) but not a radical loss of touch with reality.

(in nontechnical use) excessive and irrational anxiety or obsession.