Tuber Times 2062.23: First Half Review

[cheekimonk]

Tuber Times
1 April 2062
Boise, Idaho
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by Stubby Bardenwerper

So July happened. The signs were there, of course, but baseball fans - and GMs - are optimistic by nature if given a sliver of hope. The Spuds were 23-33 exiting May. Because of the packed nature of BBA divisions the team was still only 4.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot. Then Boise found a way to post a 20-8 record in June and suddenly GM Ben Teague had a team rolling into the All-Star break just 2.5 games back. It was made to look all the more rosy since April was so disastrous:

April 10-17, .370 PCT
May 13-16, .448 PCT
June 20-8, .714 PCT

Then came a 7-19 July. The two biggest warning signs that there was flakiness going on were the Spuds ranking 6th in runs scored and 14th in runs allowed. That's not a pace the Spuds, the Teague Spuds, are meant to sustain. It happened, sure, but that gut feeling that something was off should have been heeded. It colored not just a sober assessment of the team's metrics but prodded Teague to make some aggressive moves:

10 July: Acquired 38yo SP Phil 'Brewmeister' Cole from the Nashville Bluebirds for prospects 20yo SP Pat Perkins, 21yo LF Carlos Díaz, and 19yo 3B Dong-joon Park
(The Spuds did get some cash in addition to Cole but that's a topic for another time.)

10 July: Acquired 36yo SP Ken Sproul for 21yo AAA catcher Roberto Martínez and 21yo SP Rafael Garza

Additionally, Teague signed first-round pick SP Emílio Díaz despite his plan to not sign any draftees in 2062. Díaz was 21yo and essentially fully developed so perhaps he could play a role in boosting the Spuds in the WC race by at least by September.


June was, of course, the beginning of interdivisional play. That's not to slam the JL Atlantic but there was clearly a boost in the win/loss column (and it clearly shouldn't be slamming the Atlantic given the results in the 2nd go around in July).

The poor pitching, for which the offense was masking, should have been expected in close analysis. Boise exited the offseason looking towards a rotation like this:

37yo Robert Hanson - 2061: 4-1, 2.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
36yo Mahad 'Furball' Einan - 2061: 12-8, 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
38yo Marvin 'Groucho' Winston - 2061: 3-3, 4.89 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
36yo Muneer bin Khairy - 2061: 6-7, 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
33yo Doug Eckhoff - 2061: 9-12, 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
28yo Jeremy Nickerson - 2061: 4-6, 5.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Not spectacular by any means but solid and reliable. Predictable. Only Nickerson was a question mark due to his proclivity for mid- to long-term injuries. Opening day saw Hanson, Einan, Winston, and Eckhoff either on a trainer's table or a couch at home. May came around with Einan and Winston rehabbing in AAA. Instead, the Spuds ran with a mix of Eckhoff, Nickerson, bin Khairy, 36yo Juan Guzmán, 27yo Buddhapalita Kankipati, 27yo Robert Carlson and 29yo Jack McNeil. The sensational June led Teague to the mistaken conclusion that he could patch the rotation with veterans Cole and Sproul and steam into the latter half of the season.

Putting Guzmán and Kankipati in the rotation essentially gutted middle relief. But Teague had signed some arms in the offseason to take of that as the bullpen had been a drag on Boise pitching for a few years prior. The main acquisitions, of which much was expected, were 33yo righty Abban 'Eeyore' Layar and 36yo LHP Yoriyuki Ine. Expectations vs reality were very different.

Meanwhile, the offense was expected to be solidly mediocre with virtually no changes from a solidly mediocre 2061 lineup. Instead, headed into the All-Star break virtually every hitter, outside of defense specialists SS Dan Raymond and CF Bob Hills, was sporting close to or above an .800 OPS. All-Star pick 1B/DH Pedro Hozven (1.012), 1B Tracy Allison (.909), and 3B Bill Kuhn (.913) were north of .900. That should have been counted as unsustainable but hope springs eternal. Regression to the mean has dropped Boise's ranking in runs scored from 6th in the JL headed into the break to 11th at the close of July.

In short (we know, too late), Teague epically miscalculated the team's position. The Spuds will now pay for expensive transactions, in terms of young prospects, for years as Cole and Sproul move on to brighter homes.