Twin Cities farm system is getting higher by the day. Or are the evaluators the ones that are high?
It's the start of the off season and you know what that means. The Baseball News Network just updated their Top Prospect list. Being that the results of this list seem favorable to us this season, why not write a team newsie talking about what a great job we did and that we are the model of success despite losing 100 games for the 4th straight season.
Well... that is not entirely the truth. The BNN top prospect list is a very flawed way of evaluating farm systems. It merely takes the top 100 prospects and assigns them ascending point values. These values are then added up to get a System Rating. Throw in the fact that some of the choices on the top 100 list can be baffling and you got a half assed stat almost as bad as WAR.
So what does it actually mean for Twin Cities that they are ranked as the 3rd best farm system? Well, it means they have some toolsy players with high potential. Noone personifies that more then Enzo Bouton. Bouton was the first pick overall in this past draft. One might expect such an asset to be the #2 overall prospect in the game. And he does have the capabilities to become the greatest knuckleballer ever. But will he? He is rawer then ODB in Shimmy Shimm Ya and has the work ethic of a sloth. That just doesn't add up as a wise educated guess to me. Him being #2 seems like a high bar.
Brooks at #18 seems about right. He is a polished starter with top of the rotation potential. Meanwhile Bourgeois is very risky at #42. Maybe not as risky as Bouton, but he is already 21, behind the development curve and couldn't even keep his eyes open on picture day.
Then we got Burl Primmer and Jesús 'Jinx' Díaz. Burl is going to be 24 on opening day. His 3rd pitch seems like a no go and his movement/control are still a long way off. I could think of several River Monster prospects that should be ranked higher. Mark Moore? Last and certainly least is Jesus Diaz. He is just a non prospect. Even if he hit's his 8/6/8 potential, which he is not, what is that going to do in a pitching dominant era? Sure, his Tavio-esque 11 stamina could be accentuated as a staff saver role. But is that really worth a mention on this list?
So are we buying or selling that Twin Cities has the 3rd best farm system in the Brewster? I am certainly not buying. If the 5 aforementioned starters all hit their potentials, then that is a very good rotation. Best in the league? Maybe, but probably not in this era. And then there is a little thing called offense. Outside of Ted Benson and Stan Moten, Twin Cities doesn't really have any BBA projectable hitters. None. And neither of those players are franchise players.
In closing, it was a good year for the Twin Cities farm system. We added a lot of depth, some better coaches, a well planned out system for development and some top end talent with room to grow. By no means do we have the 3rd best system in the Brewster though. Not yet at least. With another number one pick coming next season and probably some more under the radar moves, the River Monsters future will continue to rise.
