I last previewed Charlotte before the 2057 season. That was GM Nathan Garrison's first year at the helm of the Flyers and the year they started to turn things around. They were a consistent ~90 win team from 2058-2060 until the wheels fell off a bit last year and Charlotte went 77-85. The Flyers exceeded their Pythagorean win total by four games but fell short of their xW total by one game. The offense was worth 37 less runs than the sum of their parts and was in the top ten of the BBA in xR. The pitching staff, however, was the opposite story.
Garrison's approach to team building seems similar to mine with a goal of constantly building and aiming to be competitive. Lets run thru the 2062 lineup and pitching staff to see if Charlotte is ready to contend again.
Batters
For the purpose of this preview I'm going to assume Charlotte rolls with an extra position player on their roster thanks to the versatility of Jacquot Natta. There's simply more deserving players on that side of the ledger, but with pitching being the team's weakness there's probably more benefit to playing the matchups and limiting overexposure with the pitching staff.
Chief catching duties once again falls to Lawrence Stewart. Nothing about Stewart's game blows you away but he fills the stat sheet and before you know it he's got 3 WAR which is a reasonable expectation for 2062. Homegrown Reynaldo Fernandez will serve as backup. He's a poor man's Stewart with a bad attitude. At just 24 years old, there could be some untapped potential but mostly he's a typical backup catcher. This is a position of strength with Stewart still in his prime.
This roster has like seven guys competing for the three openings at 1B/LF/RF and GM Garrison is best advised to play the hot hand. The two most traditional choices for first base are Dallas Dixon and Ben Graybill. Dixon had a resurgent 2061 with a 138 wRC+ but he couldn't stay healthy. I'd expect Dixon to be on the field a similar amount in 2062 but with worse performance and not expect more than 1 WAR. Grabill, on the other hand, hit the snot out of the ball in the minors and forced his way into replacing Dixon. The scouts seem to think his production was partially due to his advanced development and I think he's more solid than star. I'd expect something like .260/.300/.480 with 30 homers if he were to play everyday and about 2 WAR. His most valuable asset is his left-handed swingthe Flyers only have three position players who can claim thatto help balance the lineup.
Starting at second base and making his BBA debut on Opening Day will be 21 year-old Domingo Chavez. Chavez still requires a little development but he's clearly mastered the minor leagues and might as well do it at the game's highest level. I'll project a .290/.340/.450 batting line with average defense. That should be worth about 2.5 WAR. His backup organizationally is Wani Matos but he could start in AAA since he's never played above A ball. That would leave the backup reps at this spot to one of the other shortstops or even Mr. Versatility himself, Bandit Natta.
Third base will be Natta's typical position on the diamond when he isn't pitching. I think the BA and OBP he's displayed in 2059 and 2061 match his ratings better than his .325/.385 performance in 2060, but I also think he should consistently swat 30 homers. That makes him a roughly 3.5 WAR player with the bat. On the days he's pitching look for the Flyers to turn to 22 year-old Jorge Garcia. Garcia struggled last year but the scouts view him as a finished product. He should hit for a fairly high average with a little bit of pop. If Garcia hits enough he could also enter the mix at first base.
Over the offseason Nathan was collecting shortstops like they're toilet paper before a snowstorm. As camp closes there are three players left standing: Loo Yang, Jose Villa, and Jack Liss. The young Liss has options so he'll probably head to AAA. Yang was really good for Charlotte over 233 PAs last year as an above average shortstop with the bat and the glove. Expect his bat to regress and for him to repeat his 1.4 WAR performance but spread over twice as much playing time. That leaves Villa as the reserve middle infielder where he's an excellent defender but unremarkable at the plate.
Graybill can flex into being a passable outfielder but with six other guys in the mix out there I wouldn't make it a regular habit. Left field starts should go to some combination of Miguel Lussier and Jorge Trujillo. Trujillo is the legacy name but Lussier out produced him in a fraction of the playing time last year. Trujillo is an overrated player because of the gaudy RBI totals he's amassed and I think he'll be a bench player by midseason. Both defend the position well. Raul Morales is 28 and makes more than the league minimum so I assume he'll be on the bench too although he looks like a guy they could have nontendered. Mixing and matching these three I'll project 2.5 WAR from this position.
Center field is locked in with budding superstar Jose Bedreddin. His combination of power, speed, and ever improving defense should lead to another 4 WAR season. Lussier can provide the occasional day off.
If playing time was handed out based on salary it would be obvious who starts in right field. Jose Vargas is being paid $20M this season to essentially be indistinguishable from the other corner players I've described. I suspect we already saw his peak in 2059-2060 and he'll now sustain at more of a 2.5 to 3 WAR pace but there could be another 4 WAR campaign left in him. The other guy on the roster who has the arm for right field is Onan Ogun. Nobody knows what to make of the bumping 26 year old. But he should make the roster because he has nothing left to prove in AAA and most vitally he bats left-handed.
Like first base, DH should simply go to a hot hand I discussed at one of the corner positions above. I wouldn't expect a regular at DH until Nathan can assess what he has.
Pitchers
I'm projecting the starting rotation as Buwono Mainaky, Bandit Natta, John Rasmussen III, Qing-lai Ou-yang, and Ignacio Lewis. It leaves something to be desired. Mainaky pitched like an ace in 2060 and more like a MOR starter in 2059 and 2061. That's probably indicative of who he is as Mainaky is reliant on his defense to execute. He's a legitimate playoff starting pitcher who should produce about 3.5 WAR. Natta is a similar pitcher on paper who hasn't quite brought it all together on the mound. He'll be worth a little less WAR than Mainaky since he doesn't work as deep into games. Rasmussen's career is hanging on by a thread in my opinion. He's as likely to be released as he is to be an average pitcher with a realistic projection of like 1.5 WAR. Ou-yang ideally works as a swingman and projects similarly. Lastly, Lewis gives them some upside since his pitches are still improving. Expect growing pains and another rotation spot best projected at 1.5 WAR.
If somebody gets hurt or one of those last three starters falters they'll be replaced by youngster Felipe Cummings. Cummings is still developing but has the highest ceiling of any starter in the Charlotte org.
I have similar expectations for the patchwork bullpen. Closer Josh Dougherty seems to be in decline and a resurgent year from him would really help. Mokichi Nakamura and Jameel Khanum are tapped to be the setup men which I think overexposes them. All the other relivers have warts and I'll project 3.5 WAR from the unit as a whole.
Kurt's Prediction: 87-75
Charlotte will have a potent offense. There are multiple guys for every position on the corners so they can overcome injuries there. Only shortstop projects to be below average. They'll be susceptible to above average right-handed pitchers but should destroy nearly any lefty starting pitcher they face.
The starting rotation is still below average. Somebody might surprise but I also expect one of their bottom three starters to blow up. Cummings developing quickly is probably the only salve but maybe they figure out a way to trade from all their position player depth for another decent starter. Nathan can add rentals to the bullpen if they're in the playoff mix.
I think winning the division is unlikely, but whether or not the Flyers make the postseason could come down to luck with so many other JL teams competing for those four wild card spots.
