2018 Frick League Preview

[aaronweiner]

Welcome to your 2018 Frick League Preview.


Cheatsheet:


Projected finishes:

FLA: Buffalo, Carolina, Atlantic City, Montreal

FLM: New Orleans, Birmingham, Marquette, Des Moines

FLP: Las Vegas, Seattle, Calgary, Long Beach


Wild card winner: Carolina or Buffalo

[hr]


Overview:

The Buffalo Bison deserve top billing up here. Robbed of their first MBWBA title in the modern era, Buffalo managed to make the playoffs without Mike Swanson but were unable to get out of the first round in the second incarnation of 2017. The happy recipient of this misfortune? Yours truly, who slipped into the Landis Memorial Series, only to lose in five games. Carolina was just the second Frick team in the last seven years to lose a Landis Memorial Series, a somewhat ignominious feat unless you consider that Carolina won their first pennant in 20 years and made the playoffs for just the third time in that time period.

Can Carolina, who is bringing back basically all the same pieces this year, repeat? Can Buffalo bounce back with the re-addition of the best pitcher in baseball? Who will New Orleans face in the first round of the playoffs? Will Seattle or Calgary be able to knock off the very much reloaded Las Vegas Hustlers, or steal a wild card spot? Is there anyone who can sneak in and take a playoff spot from any of these top teams? Will Birmingham have to file for bankruptcy? Let’s get to the action.


Note 1: All Gained/Lost players are through free agency unless otherwise indicated.

Note 2: The Frick League actually won less games than the Johnson League did last year, twelve less, to be precise. I’m projecting they win 50 more this year, in no small part because of the collapses of Brooklyn and Omaha.


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Frick League Atlantic
Other preview:



Carolina Kraken

Other preview:

Last year's record: 97-65, first, FLA (Won FL Pennant, Lost in Landis Memorial Series)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 858/688


Gained:

SP Jerome Powell

RP Sean McVeagh


Lost:

RP Paul Mullins

RP Herbert Coolen

C Tobias Kelly

OF Jose Lopez

IF Jean-Marc Fraysse

2B Shane Hore


Outlook:

Well. How about that.

It took two tries, but Carolina won the 2017 Frick League Pennant. There was little question the team deserved it: in the first incarnation, Carolina came within a game of the Landis anyway; this time, they made it. Carolina was a complete ballclub built on two ideas: on-base percentage and solid pitching 1-13, and that’s how the team won last year.

Good news for Carolina is that the team is basically identical to last year with some possible upgrades; according to the game, nobody gained more ground this offseason than the Kraken. The #1 offense in the MBWBA is basically the same with the exception of Tobias Kelly, whose career is basically over. They’re back to defensive specialist Steve Burnett and solid platoon player Allen Morris at catcher, with prospect Juan Castillo lurking in the wings.

The pitching staff was kind of overstuffed, but the Sean McVeagh deal took care of the problem. One thing this Kraken team lacked last year was a lefty starter, and new acquisition Jerome Powell has been one of the better ones for half a decade. Alex Mitchell (1.3 WAR as a reliever last year!) might find himself in the minor leagues; that’s how stacked this pitching staff is.

Overall, we’d say that the Kraken are very likely to continue contending. The question is not whether they’ll win 90 games this year; they’re very likely to repeat that feat. The question is whether they’ll win enough games to make the playoffs again. I certainly hope so. Billy Chapel has continued developing, and few teams have the 1-2 punch in the lineup that Carolina has in Thomas and Stu Baker. This is a dangerous goddamn ballclub, and like Jim Bouton, I’m feeling like I’m undefeated against the wall right now. Someone come and knock me off before my ego reaches unforeseen meltdown points.


Projected Record: 95-67


[hr]



Buffalo Bison

Other preview:

Last year's record: 88-74, second, FLA (won wild card, lost in Doubleday)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 726/623


Gained:

Nothing


Lost:

Nothing.


Outlook:

As I wrote at the time, I’m uncomfortable feeling sorry for my chief division rival. Not THAT uncomfortable. Robbed of a title, Buffalo is a team on a mission this season and has the goods to back it up. Blessed with the #1 rotation in the MBWBA led by the best pitcher in the league, Buffalo is pretty much a known commodity.

What do we know about Buffalo? Their offense isn’t really BAD, and their bullpen isn’t really broke, but neither unit is by itself the stuff of a Frick contender. But the Bison are absolutely contenders this year, because sometimes one unit is so strong it carries all the rest of them. The starting staff for Buffalo is so deep, so talented, that it’s going to take another Swanson injury to prevent them from winning 90 games.

Let’s see if this time, Buffalo’s great pitching can stay healthy enough to take down the rest of the league. It happened once, in a galaxy far, far away. It can happen again.


Projected Record: 95-67



[hr]



Montreal Blazers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 75-87, fourth, FLA (missed playoffs)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 746/791


Gained:

SP Mike Boggie

CF Juan Heredia

1B Skookum Mason

Maybe Ben McLaughlin (rookie)


Lost:

CF Frank Harris

SP Ron Harmon

C Maxwell Weiss, Jr.


Outlook:

Another team that might be better than you think, Montreal has a lot of players that look fairly good but don’t play all that well.

For example: Eliot Spencer. Two years in a row, Spencer has posted virtually the same stat line, and nobody knows quite how he’s not at least a little better. Gabriel Lerma looks better than he is but can’t get on base. In fact, this is sort of the running theme throughout the Blazers: most of the players have power, but they can’t get on base. Juan Heredia is an interesting signing for that reason; could he and Dave Pruitt make this offense work?

The pitching staff is also very interesting, but, again, it looks better than it actually plays. Luis Freitas is one of the league’s better lefty starters, but guys like Carlos Cortez and Teddy Hoffman just look average at best, and that’s pretty much the best of a bad situation.

Montreal does have a deep, talented and thorough farm through shrewd dealing, and they’ll be fine in the long haul, but for now, it’s hard to see them breaking the .500 mark – it just looks like a mishmash of players with no clear leader and no continuity. If they can get the offense to work and some lucky pitching efforts, they might do it, though.


Projected Record: 74-88


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Atlantic City Gamblers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 62-100, fourth, FLA (missed playoffs)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 717/754


Gained:

SP David Lewis

RP Charles Brannigan

RP Chet Wright

C Brady Crabtree

RP Phil Flores (trade)

RP Grey Street (trade)

SP Ricardo Alfonso (trade)

DH Antonio Sanchez (rookie)

3B Manuel Garcia (rookie)


Lost:

DH Carroll Phillips

3B Christophe Garnier

RP Johnson Walter

CL Edwyn Odenthal (retired)

SP Todd McKeever (retired)


Outlook:

One of the top contenders on the “they might be better than you think” list, Atlantic City has overhauled their offense and improved their pitching staff to the point where they’re potentially sneaky-good, even while there’s a real chance they’re not VERY good.

Atlantic City bolstered their bullpen dramatically this offseason, but their pitching staff is still somewhat questionable. We’re not seeing a lot of starters who are likely to put up a ERA much above league average. The offense will suffer badly from the loss of Milt Linares, though it might also be better than you think if players like Javier Montero and Manuel Garcia step up big, early.

I can’t see more than a .500 record for Atlantic City, but after last year’s 100-loss debacle (worst in the MBWBA), that would be fantastic news for this team. They’ve basically righted the ship financially and were even justified in signing a couple free agents this offseason, maybe. Their offense will hold them back, and there are much better teams out there, but I don’t see why they’d lose another 100 games.


Projected Record: 75-87


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Frick League Midwest
Other preview:



New Orleans Crawdads

Other preview:

Last year's record: 98-64, First, FLM, won MBWBA title
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 781/625


Gained:

P Michael Leroy (rookie)

P Mike Nelson (rookie)


Lost:

Nothing.


Outlook:

New Orleans is the safest playoff bet in the MBWBA. Right now, we’d say that you could get about a dime for betting a dollar for the Crawdads to make the playoffs, and it’s not just because the team is dominant all by itself (and it is) but because there isn’t one serious contender in the Frick Midwest.

This projection is despite the fact that Jimmy McCabe and Juan German are starting to show some signs of age; the pitching staff is still in the conversation with Las Vegas for the second best staff in the Frick League. Their bullpen might be unmatched in the MBWBA. Their lineup is starting to show some minor cracks, but they’re still led by one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, Joey Rosko and David Blue, and they’re outstanding defensively.

Since we think that 85 wins will take the Frick Midwest, welcome back to the playoffs, Crawdads.


Projected Record: 93-69


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Birmingham Bandits

Other preview:

Last year's record: 97-65
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 906/783


Gained:

Jason Brooks


Lost:

RP Lyenour Graves

C Dex Sheehan (washed up)

RF Juan Guitierrez

Outlook:

At this point, Birmingham needs one of three things, or all of them:

1) A way to make $9,000 a month on the Internet selling cheese graters,
2) The 40-man roster to sell their jewelry to Cash 4 Gold:

[BBvideo 425,350][/BBvideo]

3) A bailout from the United States Federal Reserve.

Boy, is this team broke. I mean, broke broke. How bad has it gotten? At the time of this writing, Birmingham has 21 players earning a salary and they’re on pace to lose $10 million this season. So what the hell do you do with a team like this?

Here’s what I’d do: I’d go for it. Why? Because at this point, this team has two more years of financial solvency before they’re broke AND playerless. After 2020, this team won’t be able to do a damn thing, they won’t be able to re-sign anyone, and they’ll be basically done. Wait, I’ll let Leonard Hofstedder explain it to you:

[BBvideo 425,350][/BBvideo]

Got it? Next year, this team is SCREWED.

So they have two choices. They can start trading away guys now. They can say, “I’m not as good as Carolina or Buffalo or maybe even Calgary or Seattle. I need to be at least as good as three of those teams to make the playoffs. I’ll sell, if I can.” Or, there’s choice 2: “I’m gonna roll the dice and see what the hell happens, because by next year I don’t have a fucking chance in hell anyway.”

I say go for it. Go for it, because next year, they have no choice but to sell everything that isn’t pinned down. Maybe they get lucky and roll sevens and elevens and they win 98 games and roar to their second title. Maybe they roll snake eyes and boxcars and didn’t deal anyone and are milquetoast. Either way, in 2020, they’re starting over. One last time for all the marbles. I don’t think they get there, but it’ll be a fun ride.


Projected Record: 84-78


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Marquette Suns

Other preview:

Last year's record: 73-89
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 685/713


Gained:

DH Pedro Correa


Lost:

C Sean Wilder

RP Antonio Rodriguez

SP/RP Juan Rivera (retired)


Outlook:

Marquette now has a legitimate superstar outfielder, Leon Sandcastle, roaming around center field. One of the best two-way players in the league, Sandcastle will be able to take this team as far as it will go. Which is pretty much nowhere.

Why so pessimistic? Well, Francis Rollins replaces Dan-sing Nancies as the “pitcher with a clue” on the roster, though I think Shawn Abrams could actually be okay. The bullpen’s a tire fire and their cleanup hitter is Pedro Correa. Their farm currently ranks 21st.

On the bright side, they’ve gone profitable and aren’t making a lot of noise about contending, so that’s a plus. In other words, lots of work to do here for a veteran of the MBWBA. They’re gonna need to rebuild. Despite all this, they regularly avoid 90 losses, so there’s that. I think this year breaks that trend.


Projected Record: 70-92



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Des Moines Kernels

Other preview:

Last year's record: 65-97
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 689/847


Gained:

Nothing


Lost:

RP Santiago Pagan

SP Gary Jones (retired)


Outlook:

Des Moines is home to a couple of the better pitchers you’ve probably never considered for an award: Steve Wolarski and Don Miller. If you ask me, those two would look awfully good as Calgary Marauders and Halifax Hawks.

See, this team needs a major overhaul. Their best offensive player last year was Christian Raines, who the prior two years had combined for a -.6 WAR. Roland Sorensen can hit, but he’s only a good, not great outfielder. Lee Dundee is washed up.

They have pieces to deal, they just haven’t dealt them. It’s like they get a memory wipe every year and forget they just lost 90 games, which they’ve done every single year since 2015. It’s going to happen again; the question is not if but how low they can go.


Projected Record: 65-97


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Frick League West Division
Other preview:



Las Vegas Hustlers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 98-64, first, FLP (Lost in Cartwright Cup)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 790/670


Gained:

C Maxwell Weiss

RP Jonathan Sorensen

Lost:

3B Eric Thorne

SP Davey Acheson


Outlook:

In Commish Battle 1, Las Vegas fell to the Carolina Kraken without much drama, losing 4-1 in the Cartwright Cup. I’m thinking they’ll get their shot again this year, if not for revenge, certainly for vindication. Las Vegas might be the most complete team in the MBWBA this season, and it will be hard to keep them out of the playoffs.

The midseason acquisition last year of Pop Guzman changes the entire landscape for this team. Their offense is now a very solid unit with Guzman and Lucio Vazquez, though I still there are there some minor issues with their lineup. (I still hold to the idea that Marsuppini is the least valuable 3-star player in the MBWBA.) They shouldn’t be bad offensively at any rate, and should be pretty good.

The pitching staff is deep and talented, and it’s a complete unit. For my money, you let Little Bull out of his goddamn cage and let him start, but Las Vegas might already have one of the best starting staffs in the MBWBA. It’s hard to find a hole on this entire pitching staff; they’re just plain solid everywhere, even if they don’t have a Mike Swanson.

Vegas ought to make the playoffs this year, but keep in mind there are four playoff spots for six teams (barring a huge surprise run from somebody), and they play in probably the toughest division in the MBWBA; even Tucson is trying now. If someone snakes them for the division title, they could stealthily miss the playoffs. I don’t think it’ll happen, but it could happen, and that’s interesting by itself.


Projected Record: 95-67


[hr]



Seattle Storm

Other preview:

Last year's record: 86-76, second, FLP, (missed playoffs)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 802/648


Gained:

LF Harvey Newton

CF Jorge Rodriguez (rookie phenom)

2B Eric Thorne

SP Ron Harmon

RP Antonio Rodriguez


Lost:


RF Bob White

MR James Endres

SP David Lewis


Outlook:

Dude. DUDE. The biggest screw job I’ve ever seen went directly upside the head of the Seattle Storm last year. Apparently, like Odysseus, they did something really stupid to piss off the gods – maybe they didn’t sacrifice the right goat. Whatever. Seattle finished -11 in Pythagorean record last year, and if you combine that with Las Vegas’ +5, Seattle should have been in the playoffs.

For my money, this is a worse nightmare situation than in Louisville. See, unlike the Sluggers, Seattle doesn’t have the #1 farm in the MBWBA to draw upon. It’s worth noting right now that their farm is ranked #6, led by Joe Gillstrom candidate Jorge Rodriguez, and Pete King and Ken Stark are 25 and 27, respectively, but their rotation is aging and showing cracks and there isn’t anything coming from the minors to help that situation.

Seattle has the horses, but they no longer look like the best team in their division anymore. Unless Carolina or Buffalo runs away with the wild card, though, I expect them to be contenders all year long. Yep, sorry, Storm fans: this guy’s predicting another season of heartbreak. The situation isn’t dire: Seattle is spending less than usual, on pace to make a big profit this year and is still a very good and entertaining ballclub. But buyer beware on the Storm’s playoff chances. They’ll tell you themselves.


Projected Record: 90-72


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Calgary Marauders

Other preview:

Last year's record: 84-78, third, FLP (missed playoffs)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 710/694


Gained:

SP Jorge Jimenez (rookie)


Lost:

C Pedro Berrios

DH Phil Owry


Outlook:

Rough season for the 2016 FL Pacific champs, as the Marauders stumbled off their pedestal and down to 84 wins. Calgary wasn’t precisely a contender despite the fact that they finished just four games out of the wild card. They had a huge run down the stretch and just managed to look good despite a horrendous early season stretch.

A few things did go very right for Calgary last year. Fox Mulder arrived, and he’s part of the answer, not the question. Alexandre Belin had his best season as a pro, though a significant amount of regression should be expected. Hector Cano had a fantastic first four months before dropping off the map; he’s too good to be putting up a 2.9 WAR. And Terry Cochran was Terry Cochran.

Calgary is a significant candidate to push forward this year, as they have a number of candidates for improvement and are adding one of the first big players from the huge 2016 draft, SP Jorge Jimenez. Las Vegas looks pretty good, but this is a meat grinder of a division, the type of division that can push a team like Seattle to 86 wins despite a -11 Pythagorean record because the teams are all dangerous. I’m expecting a very competitive wild card this year, and Calgary should be in the thick of that. Probably.


Projected Record: 90-72


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Tucson Cactus

Other preview:

Last year's record: 62-100, last, FLP (missed playoffs)
2017 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 653/895


Gained:

SP Phil Briggs

OF Bob White

2B Moon Jetson

RP Johnson Walter

DH Stephen Welch


Lost:

LF Harvey Newton

RP Charles Brannigan

RP Jeremy Harris

RP Gabriel Murillo

SP Javier Garcia

SP/Washed up Mike Williams


Outlook:

A team that thinks they’re toast doesn’t go out and spend $30 million on Bob White or spend prospects on Phil Briggs - well, at least, probably not. So we have to think that Tucson thinks they have a shot (or are building for future years). They’re a compelling team, but I just don’t see it.

How bad was Tucson last year? Well, put it this way: they lost 100 games, tied for most in the league, but their expected record was 104 losses. They actually finished ahead of their performance! Basically, this is how they’re wooing success:

[BBvideo 425,350][/BBvideo]

and suddenly, all Agent Starling can pay attention to is the dead bug on the counter. (Though in his defense, he is shown with Starling later in the movie.)

I’m being a bit crass. Tucson does have a pretty solid offense, led by Drew Zod and augmented by a lot of high contact players, some with a little power, some, like Matthew Moore, with quite a bit of hidden potential. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Long Beach finish in the top third of Frick teams on offense. But their pitching is so rotten, even despite the addition of Briggs, that I just don’t see how they have a shot. Two years from now, however, this team could be pretty good, if they don’t go insane and deal away their farm, and their offense is good enough that I don’t think they’ll crash and burn this year. I like their plan – I’d stay the course.

Projected Record: 70-92

[hr]

[mrbornac]

I have made no changes to this team, because, short of a health insurance policy for Swanson, what is to change?

[aaronweiner]

I have made no changes to this team, because, short of a health insurance policy for Swanson, what is to change?

I don't know - I hear that half the game involves players standing next to a pentagon, waving around about two-pounds of former tree.

[recte44]

I already announced that Bautista was going to join the rotation. Chesley is out.

[aaronweiner]

Well, then, good for me for saying he should be.

[cheekimonk]

This may be the most perplexing roster situation I've ever found myself in. Outside of Sandcastle I don't have the talent to deal for prospects (maybe McKinney, but not sure he would fetch enough to make up for the fact that he's young and I can keep him around for awhile). I have very solid defense in the field with young guys, but starting pitching isn't even close (bullpen is manageable) and even though my top prospects are pitchers they are way too young to be a factor for at least a couple of seasons (probably more).

[bigmike13]

It won't be that bad in Birmingham right? It will all be painless and end happy right? Who am I kidding, pass me the bourbon and Xanax.

[aaronweiner]

This may be the most perplexing roster situation I've ever found myself in. Outside of Sandcastle I don't have the talent to deal for prospects (maybe McKinney, but not sure he would fetch enough to make up for the fact that he's young and I can keep him around for awhile). I have very solid defense in the field with young guys, but starting pitching isn't even close (bullpen is manageable) and even though my top prospects are pitchers they are way too young to be a factor for at least a couple of seasons (probably more).

*nod* The stuff of a long-term rebuild.

[c-mitch]

Hoping to surprise in the desert.

[njherdfan]

Just FYI, Seattle ALWAYS sacrifices the right goat, so we must have done something else wrong.

[aaronweiner]

I'm glad to see Seattle knows their goats.