2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

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trmmilwwi
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2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by trmmilwwi » Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:06 pm

2018 CHICAGO BLACK SOX
GM: Zach Deuel, 1st season (Win Loss record 0-0)


3 YEAR TREND
2017 record: 86-76, 2nd place, 9 GB, .276 avg, 3.96 ERA, .310 BABIP
2016 record: 80-82, 3rd place, 18 GB, .269 avg, 4.13 ERA, .318 BABIP
2015 record: 95-67, 1st place, .265 avg, 3.54 ERA, .303 BABIP


3 THINGS THAT WENT WRONG IN 2017
1. The Black Sox have seen a decreasing win total since their 6 straight playoff appearances from 2010 through 2015. Starting pitcher Jason “Bun Bun” Brooks was allowed to leave via free agency after having down years in 2014 and 2015. Long time starter Dave Corrigan was released after injury plagued seasons in 2014 and 2015. The team promoted Salvador Martinez and brought in free agent Roy Buckley but the pitching suffered. Then in 2017, management decided to trade Tom “Hermit” Madonald for a slew of prospects and promoted long time reliver Alexis Threadgill to starter.
2. Veteran slugger Bob Goodwin was signed to a 1 year deal to be the slugger in Chicago’s lineup. Goodwin batted .256 but had only 17 homers and 61 RBI’s, the worst power season of his career.
3. 3 time all star centerfielder Bart Lavigne had a down season batting almost 20 points below his career average and posting a sub-1.0 WAR. His stolen base total was the lowest of his career and the one time base thief looks to be a pure OBP machine now.


3 THINGS THAT WORKED IN 2017
1. The back end of the bullpen was better than ever, which is saying quite a lot, as the trio of Craig Murray, Josh “Seeker” O’Kennelly and Victor Waller pitched great. Each appeared in 64+ games and had cumulative ERA’s around 2.00. Their cumulative record was 15-7 with 44 saves.
2. 2012 2nd round draft pick Terrence Miller played his first full season after having a cup of coffee in 2016 and played extremely well. He went 20-10 with a 2.80 ERA posting a 5.4 WAR for the season. Miller ran away with the Joe Gillstrom award and received 14 of 18 1st place votes.
3. 26 year old minor leaguer Tim Parson was called into action with the defensive minded Caleb Stuart losing his bat completely. Parson did a better than expected job by batting .290 with 14 homers and 52 RBI’s in his rookie campaign.


KEY LOSSES HEADING INTO 2018
1. RP John Edwards
KEY ADDITIONS HEADING INTO 2018
1. None

Chicago seems content to start the 2018 season essentially with the same team as they finished 2017 with. While their win total actually went up 6 games from 2016, the Black Sox didn’t gain any ground on division leader Madison who went out and made a few trades to strengthen their club heading into 2018.


2018 ROSTER
Catcher
Jake Norton, 27 years old
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Norton is entrenched for his 4th consecutive season as the main catcher for the Black Sox. He has averaged 120+ games a season, hitting .280 with around 15 homers and 55 RBI’s. He strikes out a little bit more than he walks but doesn’t have high totals for either. His defense is solid but last season he had twice as many errors (13) as usual. His defensive replacement and spot starter is Miguel Pereira who is solely a defensive catcher.

First Base
Roberto Montoya, 29 years old
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Montoya has played 4 full seasons in Chicago but seemed to fall out of favor with management last season. He played in only 112 games while averaging 151 the 3 previous seasons. His average has fallen each season and he had a horrible year last year as he hit only 5 homers, 18 less than his previous season low. Unfortunately Montoya is 2+ seasons removed from having a decent batting average (.267 in 2015) and may be no better than an even WAR.

Second Base
Greg Anderson, 30 years old
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Anderson is far and above the best all-around infielder that the team has and he will be relied upon to provide a great double play duo at the center of the infield. He is a good player at the plate (.298, 4, 49) and an absolute whiz at 2B (+7.1, 1.023). Look for Anderson to continue his solid play in his 3rd full season.

Third Base
Tim Parson, 27 years old
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Parson had a great season behind the plate in limited duty, hitting .290, 14, 52 in 93 games. His defense is quite a bit below average at 3B as he has poor range and is prone to make errors. The fact that he has a decent arm will allow the Black Sox to tolerate him at 3B. Leo Curry is much better defensively and will start against lefties. Maxim Night (what a great name!!) is the heir apparent at 3B but is a few years away from playing in the bigs.

Shortstop
Vincent Lancaster, 23 years old
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Lancaster is the 2nd half of what could be the best double play middle infield in the Monty. He held a +8.2ZR and 1.027EFF in his first full season with Chicago but the biggest stat may be the 111 double plays he made. Unreal! He is decent at the plate (.270, 0, 36) but strikes out a bit too much (149 K’s). Lancaster probably has the most upside of any position player with the Sox and if he can cut down on his strikeouts he could be a monster at leadoff (42 steals in 2017).

Leftfield
Mathew Stuart, 29 years old
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Stuart is starting his 6th full season with Chicago. He has bene very consistent and should be counted on for 155+ games, 30 homers and 100+ RBI’s. He will anchor the middle of the batting order and will try to drive in Anderson and Lancaster when they are on base.

Centerfield
Oscar Lindsey, 23 years old
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Lindsay was drafted by Chicago in the 1st round of the 2013 draft and played his first full season last year. He batted .282 with 7 HR’s, 74 RBI’s and 17 steals. He is also great defensively (+17ZR and 1.077EFF). Look for another strong season from the young centerfielder.

Rightfield
Bart Lavigne, 34 years old
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Lavigne is by far the elder statesman on the ballclub and will be starting his 9th full season with Chicago. He is a .300 hitter that won’t hit a lot of homers (14 in his career) but will walk about twice as much as he strikes out. He is a prototypical #2 hitter that will dictate how things go offensively for the Black Sox.

Designated Hitter –
Walter H. “Who” Uno, 26 years old
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Like Norton, Uno will be entering his 4th full season with Chicago. He is a fixture in the lineup when healthy and has gotten better every season although his power numbers were down last year due to an injury. If healthy, expect him to hit around .300 with 20+ homers and 80+ RBI’s. Uno was a DH for his first few seasons and was asked to play 1B last year to lukewarm results. Expect him to be placed back at DH.


Starting Rotation
Terrence Miller, 23 years old (10/7/8)
Roy Nevel, Jr., 29 years old (8/7/6)
Antonio “Flying Frenchy” Rodriguez, 30 years old (7/9/9)
Salvador Martinez, 26 years old (6/7/6)
Alexis Threadgill, 32 years old (7/6/6)

The starting rotation is top heavy with 3 great pitchers and 2 below average pitchers. Teams that draw the top 3 in a series will be hard pressed to win the series but if you are lucky enough to draw the bottom of the rotation you’ll win the series more times than not. The Chicago teams of the early ought’s were built on 3 strong starters that would get the team to the playoffs where it was assumed they would have the edge. The question is if the rest of the team can back up that strategy.

Bullpen
SU Josh “Seeker” O’Kennelly, 34 years old (10/9/8)
SU Victor Waller, 31 years old (10/8/8)
CL Craig Murray, 27 years old (10/8/8)

The pen is clearly the strength of the team and is built to let the big 3 shut down opponents for 7+ innings and then shut the door. Look for this squad to have another strong campaign.

The question remains whether the Black Sox are entering a dark period similar to the stretch from 2000 until 2007 when they averaged only 71 wins a season or whether the last 2 seasons were just bridging the gap until some of the younger players could fill key roles.

PREDICTION – 88 wins, 2nd place, no playoffs
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Re: 2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by 7teen » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:06 pm

Chicago is a little more solid than I originally thought. Those top 3 starters with those 3 backend relievers makes for a pretty solid unit.

Not sure they have quite enough firepower offensively though. They have some solid sticks, but who drives in 100 RBI for the team? Who hits 30 homeruns? Do they need that?

Interesting you predicted them 2nd in the division. I assume that means you think you or I finish 3rd.
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Re: 2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by trmmilwwi » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:31 pm

7teen wrote:Interesting you predicted them 2nd in the division. I assume that means you think you or I finish 3rd.
Correct!! There is a team that I expect to win 90+ games. Also a team that will be around .500. Then there is Omaha. Sorry Fred.
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Re: 2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by recchem2000 » Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:03 pm

Nice preview Tim and thanks for doing this. Im still trying to figure out what to do with this team. I've never been a real big "rebuild" guy in OOTP so I don't see myself doing that here. If I can land a big power bat somewhere I'd pretty content with this team and ride out the season.

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Re: 2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by Rubaboo » Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:09 pm

trmmilwwi wrote:
7teen wrote:Interesting you predicted them 2nd in the division. I assume that means you think you or I finish 3rd.
Correct!! There is a team that I expect to win 90+ games. Also a team that will be around .500. Then there is Omaha. Sorry Fred.
Hey, it is what it is. I saw the writing on the wall in the division, and then added to it when I dealt Hoffman last season. Looking forward to what is hopefully a quick rebuild and return to playing with the big boys!

Great write-up. I love these previews because of what I learn about other teams, even within the division. Hard to imagine why Chicago has had such high GM turnover of late, they seem pretty well set up.
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Re: 2018 Chicago Black Sox preview

Post by crobillard » Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:44 pm

Great preview here! I really like Chicago. Especially the pitching staff. Still young and good. I agree the offense is where the team falters a bit, but really they only need a big bat or two and they're in the hunt. Excited to see how Zach navigates this.

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