I always enjoy scanning the rosters of @aaronweiner’s teams. He’s a guy with a type. At least when it comes to rosters. On the offensive side, his teams seem to always be a couple stars, and then a whole fleet of guys who can just get the job done. On the mound, he seems to always have a way of filling an entire staff of guys who are just good. This is another one of those teams. Last year, the Zombies shuffled to 88 wins and the wrong side of a postseason sweep in the Geohegan round. Fans hope that this season will be like that, only winding up on the other side of the sweeping.
It could happen, but I’m not sure. Their expected win totals last year were 85—or three less. That suggests the friction of regression to mean is pulling against them.
Pitching
The Atlantic division is getting to be a tougher row to hoe, though, depending on a few things. Oddly, the success or failure of this effort might come down to 27-year-old Takehide Gertrudes. He’s likely the #4 or #5 in the rotation (along with maybe Cheslav Evgrafov, another reclamation project who really should be okay) , but if he pitches up to his peak expectation that lifts the starting five for the Zombies up from Above Average to Top-Level. Which could make all the difference. Bob Anderson is still prime rib at the top of the order, and a lot of teams would commit murder to have Dan Voelzke in the #2 slot.
The pen seems to match Recte’s Rule of Three concept, except that Arron makes it “a Rule of Four. Yes, his cu runneth over. Especially if closer Clarence Moore’s slight regression last year (94 FIP- probably wasn’t what Weiner really called for). Is an aberration.
The team gave up 761 runs last year, good for a tie for ninth in the Johnson. I keep thinking they should have been better, but the fact of the matter is that numbers are what numbers are. Either you have to trust what they say, or find a reason they will be different. Ratings bars kind of say they’ll be better, but age and perhaps regression inside those ratings bars argues against. This is a staff with a large contingent on the wrong side of 30. That makes them perhaps more stable than your average staff, but also more susceptible to doing things like, say, losing a couple MPH, or whatever.
So, I dunno. With the division getting better I worry, though. And it’s not like there’s a bunch of easy wins sitting in the Frontier to make up for things.
Hitting
The hitters are on the other side of the tracks, though. This is a young group…and as a rule I like to say young teams area almost always better at the end of the year than they are at the beginning. Guys like RF Steve Holcombe (25), 3B Pepe Aragon (22), and even 1B Terry Cole (29) can be expected to play at or above last year’s level, and that level was about 12 WAR between the three of them. 14 or 15 is not out of the question. Aragon is a particularly fascinating player to watch for the future.
At shortstop I suspect Gabriel Manuell’s time is pretty much here. He may be the harbinger of the shortstop of the near future. Passable glove, very big bat. At 23 he’s got a notch or two yet to fill out, and he struggled at AAA for 35 games, which suggests he may not have been totally ready. But if the team is going to compete this year, it’s probably his time. If he doesn’t get the call right now, Martin Potter (23) will probably fill it. He hits lefty, so that’s nice. I think Arron would be happier if Manuel made that last development jump, though.
Go down the list, though. Really. Do it yourself. Jacksonville is stocked up with a wave of 20-24-year-old hitters who are all going to be able to make something happen. I’m not sure that something is going to happen this year, but it’s going to happen soon, and when it does it’s going to change Jacksonville’s fans for the rest of their lives.
Other Stuff
The casual observer might notice that the front office’s primary focus this seasons seems to be on the IFA and minor league free agent market. Their payroll is fairly low—down in the $90M range. I think Jacksonville is playing the infrastructure game right now, but is playing it with house money, almost. If my read is right, Jacksonville is in an interesting, almost “no-lose” situation. If the pitching holds up and the hitters come in fully, they have the resources right now to make a run (the Media Guide has them at 92 wins). But even if they don’t Jacksonville will enter 2062 with a much farther developed set of hitters, a few young gun arms, and (likely) a huge chunk of cap space to use to get whatever they need to fuel a much bigger wave in 2062 and beyond.
So, yeah, Interesting team.
Prediction: I don’t see 92. Not in this environment. I’m thinking closer to the 85-88 wins of last year, and if the top of the pitching doesn’t stand tall, it could be more like 81-82. Will that 85-88 wins be enough for a postseason run? Maybe. Not betting the ranch, though.
