What moves did the Long Beach Surfers make this off season?Editor's note: When I choose Long Beach I did not realize they had been so quiet this off-season and how boring their team previous would be lol. But they were boring for a reason, and boring isn't always bad.
Free-agent signings/Rule 5/Waivers:
None.
Trades:
None.
Departures:
• SP Juan Marroquin(3.7 WAR)
• LF Natsume Kondo(1.1 WAR)
Long Beach took a major unexpected step forward last year, jumping from 69 wins to 86 wins, just barely missing the post-season. Despite having roughly $10M in salary cap space, they have been dead silent this off-season, which has many questioning their plans.
Don’t put me on that list, as I think the reason the Surfers have been quiet is that they don’t have a ton of needs. It’s tough to give a great grade to an off-season that is so quiet, however, that’s the case here. Their lineup looks pretty complete, as does their pitching staff, so it appears to me, they are just banking that $10M for needs later in the season. They also have $40M available for the 2056 season thanks to a number of expiring deals. That number could jump as high as $76.5M as they only are sitting at $43,000,000 in guaranteed money next year.
With that being the case, Long Beach is proceeding with caution. This, of course means, be mindful but aggressive as needed.
Justin Niles off-season grade: B+
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Players to watch
Team MVP?
Ryan Geauxinue, 2B: Geauxinue led the league for the second straight year in batting average, and will no doubt be in contention this year again. He plays very well at second base, and despite his lack of extreme power, did manage to hit triple digit home runs for the third consecutive season.
Most likely trade candidate?
Jose Benavidez, 3B: There are several candidates on expiring deals, but I think Jose Benavidez is likely going to be moved this year if Long Beach falls out of contention. There are a number of teams looking for an above average bat for third base, and Benavidez fits that mold.
Most likely to take a step back this season?
Joe Zwicker, C: Zwicker had a 103 OPS+ last year, which was at that time double his career average, thanks to a .364 BABIP last season. He is not going to duplicate this and will fall back to the typical 0.5-1 WAR threshold he has been used to in prior seasons. The 2.6 WAR was a abnormality. As a pending free agent, Long Beach should have moved him this off-season before he takes another at bat.
Who has the most to lose (or gain) this season?
Ricardo Rivera, SP: The two time Nebraska winner hasn’t been the same since his torn flexor tendon in 2052. He had a 4.15 ERA last season in Long Beach and showed signs of promise in 160 innings pitched. He has a team option for 2056. If he stays healthy, he may prove he is worth that team option, but an injury could derail that and potentially the rest of his career.
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
Wayne Dorsey., SP: Dorsey had a 5.41 ERA in his first season in Long Beach, struggling in multiple aspects as he attempted to start instead of pitch in the bullpen for the first time in his career. There is a road to redemption though. Dorsey would be a shutdown back end option if Long Beach elected to go that route as Dorsey has proven in his career that he is capable of handling those duties.
Likeliest to outperform their projection?
Emilio Reyes, CF: Reyes briefly was up in 2054 for 203 plate appearances and had a negative 0.5 WAR during that time span hitting .242/.261/.309. Well, I expect the 21 year old to fair much better this season. He had bad luck when getting called up on getting hard hit balls to turn into base hits. I expect a full 2 WAR in a season from Reyes, which will be partially because of his glove work in center field.
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Joe Macleod, SP: With the departure of Juan Marroquin, Macleod will likely be asked to step into the starting role to fill that void. He made 6 starts last year with a 4.33 ERA. A full season under his belt could have Macleod as a potential rookie of the year candidate.
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How good is the Surfer’s farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Austin Nolan(#1 overall)
Nolan is the #1 prospect in the Brewster Baseball Association, with an 80 potential as a second baseman. He was a scouting discovery way back in 2048, and since that time has jumped all the way from a 20 potential to an 80 potential! It is likely he will end up at first base full time, but with his plate skills that should be no problem. At age 22, he is likely not going to debut until the 2056 season.
Organization’s ranking: No. 6
Long Beach has a solid system with 18 of the top 500 prospects, including 11 of the top 200. Of course led by Austin Nolan. After him, Travis Wilson(who I am so thrilled for Lane appears to be developing as he was my gift to Lane), and Joe Macleod round out the top 50. Catcher Rhys Atticus has the potential to be win 10 diamond gloves in his career once he makes the big leagues(which could be this year if the team trades Zwicker).
What to expect from the Surfers this season?
Justin Niles season projection: 88-74
The team may have overachieved last season, but I am expecting to be right on par this year with last season, maybe even a few games better. I haven’t seen the Pacific improve much, so Long Beach could rise to the occasion to battle for the division title. To use some surfer lingo, once the tide rises, it may be a long time before it falls based on this farm system and structural rebuild that the team quickly went through.
Bold prediction:
Long Beach not only makes the playoffs, but wins the Pacific.