2025 Frick League Preview

[aaronweiner]

Welcome to your 2025 Frick League Preview. Here's a link to the Johnson League Preview.


Cheatsheet:


Projected finishes:

FLA: Atlantic City, Carolina, Havana, Montreal

FLM: New Orleans, Indy, Birmingham, Des Moines

FLP: Seattle, Las Vegas, Tucson, Calgary


Wild card winners: Carolina, Indy

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Introduction:


Nobody’s really thinking about it, but Atlantic City is on a little mini-dynasty run here. If you include their one-game playoff for a wild card spot in 2021, Atlantic City has now made the postseason for four straight seasons and gone to three consecutive Cartwright Cups, two Landises, and won a MBWBA title in 2022. While they lost to a team of destiny in California in last year’s Landis, Atlantic City is on an impressive little run here. Perhaps the biggest story in the Frick League will be whether or not the Gamblers can keep up their recent dominance.

Of course, there are plenty of other stories to watch. Carolina went back to the playoffs for the first time last year since 2020, and they’ve done some interesting things; are they good enough to knock off the Gamblers in the division race again? Indy has now won four straight FL Midwest titles, but New Orleans looks frisky this year and could give them a pretty good run. Seattle won their first division crown in over a decade last year; who will challenge them? Is Las Vegas, aging and apparently rebuilding, done with their long playoff run?

And a lot of teams have a calling card this year. Calgary quietly had a winning record last year; have they fallen too far to contend? How about Havana, who made the most noise of anyone this offseason? Birmingham still has two of maybe the four best starting pitchers in the Frick; is a year they get some good luck? Des Moines nearly had a winning season; are they for real, or are they going to sink back into obscurity and rebuilding? How about Tucson, still looking for that elusive winning season: is this finally the year it comes together for them? Is Montreal really as bad as they looked last year?

You’ll notice that I mentioned EVERY Frick League team, and that’s because every Frick League team had something interesting going on last year and is intriguing this year. There’s no reason that any team couldn’t sneak into the playoffs in the Frick this season. Let the games begin.

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Note: All Gained/Lost players are through free agency unless otherwise indicated.

Note 2: The Frick League went 995-949 last year. More of the same this year.

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Frick League Atlantic
Other preview:





Carolina Kraken

Other preview:

Last year's record: 92-70, first, FLA (Lost in Doubleday)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 801/694


Gained:

RP Julian Anderson


Lost:

RP Jorge Rico

3B Dexter Morgan


Outlook:

The Carolina Kraken returned to the playoffs last year after a three-year absence, during which time they won between 84 and 87 games every year. The question thus becomes: are the Kraken the 92-win team that looked like the favorites for the FL pennant going into the postseason? Or are they the 85-win team they’ve been the last few years?

Pundits can make their statements on both sides of this one. If you support the idea of a Kraken resurgence, you would certainly point at the fact that they may have the best top two starters in the league in Billy Chapel, Jr., and last year’s big acquisition, Angel Ramirez. You’d point out that they still have Frank Thomas III and drew the second most walks in the league last year, a number where the departed Cesar Valencia had virtually no part. You’d suggest that their defense is better as a whole and their bullpen looks really good, and they can hit for power as a team.

If you’re in the camp where you’re saying last year’s success was a fluke, you might point at the high variability of many of the Kraken lineup members. Sure, Thomas is going to get his, but is Juan Trevino really a 30-homer guy? Can Miguel Carlson and Manuel Rodriguez hit? Are Stu Baker and Eugene Russell still any good? Juan Castillo hasn’t had an injury in a while – is this the year? Does Billy Chapel, Jr., have to win the Steve Nebraska again for the Kraken to have a shot at the playoffs, and is there anyone else in the rotation who’s any good at all other than Chapel and Ramirez?

Logic suggests that the truth, as it usually does, lies somewhere in-between. I’m buying this team, but only because they were willing to sell out the farm last year to win and so they probably are willing to do it again, and the Kraken have lots of cap space to maneuver, the sort of cap space that let them take on Julian Anderson for peanuts. It will be interesting to see how they handle Castillo, who is a looming free agent this year and is probably going to ask for a mint, but this year, they’re going to have a winning record barring calamity. They probably max out at 95 wins.

Projected Record: 89-73


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Atlantic City Gamblers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 89-73, second, FLA (Won FL Pennant, Lost To California In Landis)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 840/737


Gained:

P Tony Suarez

C Jay de Coster (trade)



Lost:

C Ernest Watts

C Javier Sierra


Outlook:

The toughest question for any contender is: when is your run over? Atlantic City won three rounds of FL playoffs last year to win their second pennant in three years (and a Cartwright Cup loss in-between), so logic would suggest that they’re alive and kicking. A quick look at the team will tell you the same thing, and it seems like Atlantic City does just about everything Carolina does, but they do it just a little bit better.

Sure, Mingo Boone and Gabriel Campos didn’t look particularly dominant last year, but Campos on paper still looks like one of the top ten starters in the MBWBA, and Boone isn’t much behind him. Boone especially is due for a bounceback season, as the star righty put up easily the worst year of his career last year and hasn’t lost nearly enough to make that his new reality. Jesus Paez could also improve on his 16-12, 4.33 mark from last year, though that’s probably close to his true talent level. The rest of the rotation is probably worse than the Kraken’s options, but it’s hard to see how their top three starters are way worse – hypothetically. The back end of their bullpen is equally strong (or stronger) with Hani Tinsley and Jerry Johnson. Tinsley might be the best closer in the game not named Glendenning.

Atlantic City’s offense was fantastic last season, especially in the playoffs. I talk a lot about Seattle’s offense, but ATC’s group was highest in total WAR. Antonio Sanchez is the superstar here, but Rafael Bido made the leap last year too with a .940 OPS, and he’s 27 this year so he could easily repeat it. Sanchez is also 27. However, there are some causes for concern in the rest of the lineup, though, notably, the rest of the team are excellent defensively. Luis Tejada is nowhere near as good as he was last year. Manuel Garcia is still a star, but he also had 11 homers last year (doubling his CAREER total), and that’s never happening again. The team has huge holes against lefty starters (though you could say that about nearly every MBWBA contender), and even despite Bido and Sanchez they had an .786 OPS as a team, much too low considering Sanchez and Bido’s numbers.

All of this means that the team is probably capped from above, but there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be right there with Carolina at the end of the season, or ahead of them. Atlantic City is aging as a team, but while the window is closing for them, it certainly hasn’t slammed shut yet, at least not this year.

Projected Record: 90-72


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Havana Sugar Kings

Other preview:

Last year's record: 75-87, third, FLA (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 626/712


Gained:

CF Benjamin Franklin Pierce (trade)

3B Hunter Eisenhower (trade)

1B Miguel Gonzalez (trade)

RP Alfredo Chavez (trade)

RP Jonathan Sorensen

OF Edison Elliott


Lost:

UT Norbert Marsuppini

RP Scott Adams


Outlook:

In Cuba, they call them “cajones.” The newly minted Havana Sugar Kings decided to not only escape from the frozen north into the warmer climate of the Caribbean, they decided to enjoy island culture by making a big splash this offseason. Will all the maneuvering pay off for a franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs since alternate reality 2017?

Well, their biggest offseason acquisition might have suffered one too many pranks. BFP came into camp a little bit shaky and it appears his sprained wrist injury, suffered last year, has sapped him of some of his bat speed. As a result, BFP might end up being more valuable on defense than at the plate, a big blow for the Sugar Kings. Hunter Eisenhower still looks the same, though, and he’s in the prime of his career. BFP’s issues at the plate are especially galling because the Sugar Kings still have major issues in the lineup, as Havana is running some very questionable players out there in key RBI spots. Bruce Wayne should be a very good pickup for them.

However, that’s most of the bad news. Jon Chandler could be the best starting pitcher not named Chapel in the Frick League. Aymeric Marinelli finally had the breakout year we’ve all expected from him; he’ll probably backslide somewhat but he was phenomenal last year. Ignacio Rodriguez is the biggest underachiever I may have ever seen, and I have no words to describe how I feel about him not having an extension already. The team has a deep and talented pen led by Ruben Vargas and Hector Escalante.

Really, all Havana needs to find pitching success is to watch their players play up to their abilities. They’re the biggest wild card team in the league this year. While their offense is a significant limiting factor, a little success there would go a long way. It’s worth mentioning that the Sugar Kings significantly upgrade their defense by having BFP, so maybe it’ll rub off on their pitching staff. They won 75 games last year and I can easily see them going .500 this season, especially since Montreal doesn’t seem interested in winning ballgames. If their pitching comes together completely, they could win 85-90 games and a wild card.

Projected Record: 79-83



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Montreal Blazers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 66-96, last, FLA (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 641/803


Gained:

RP Perry Eccles

RP Craig Browning (trade)

C Rafael Clemente (Rule 5)

C Ivan Perez (Rule 5)


Lost:

OF Pedro Reyes

OF Jeremy Gray


Outlook:

Montreal stumbled to their worst team record in almost two decades last year, losing 96 games for the first time since a 63-99 season in 2007. I’d predicted a falloff from the Blazers, who had a lot of structural team problems and offensive issues, but I certainly hadn’t anticipated them finishing eleventh in both offense and runs allowed, which will sink any team, any time. With so many talented teams in their division, Montreal’s a significant dark horse to win anything, but there are glimmers of a rebound in the works.

The Montreal rotation is starting to age a little bit; Christian Brown and Carlos Cortez are now 30, and Jorge Stanza will turn 29 this year. Health is starting to become a concern, especially with Stanza, who has thrown 30 starts in just one of the last three years. Luis Soto, still just 27, will no doubt bounce back this year, as last year’s ghastly 5.58 ERA was a total anomaly for his career. We might see more of Vicente Perez in the rotation this year; Perez will always be homer-prone and needs to improve his control, but otherwise looks very promising. Dillon Young might be a rising star in the bullpen, too; he looked solid in his rookie year.

The offense still looks fairly challenged, however. Esteban Contreras is still the star here, but there isn’t a lot of production after that. Oh, sure, the best players can still hit home runs: Luis Campos had 35 of them, for example. However, the team has a serious on-base problem, and some of the worse players in the lineup do neither. Montreal was eleventh in walks and ninth in OBP last year, and because they don’t hit a lot of doubles either, they were eleventh in extra-base hits. That’s not going to cut it.

The good news for Montreal is that their farm really is outstanding. The team has three of the top ten and nine of the top hundred prospects in the MBWBA. The list includes #1 overall Jared Gillstrom, and other young players not eligible for the prospect list, so the team could have a very bright future. Their present is more uncertain, though I don’t think they’re as bad as they played last year.

Projected Record: 70-92


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Frick League Midwest
Other preview:


Indy Grasshoppers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 93-69, first, FLM (Made Playoffs, Lost in Doubleday)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 728/624


Gained:

DH Elliot Spencer

RP Luis Mendez

DH William Billies

RP Scott Adams


Lost:

RP Ryan Craigie

DH Bill Amezaga


Outlook:

Cha-ching! Indy racked up their fourth consecutive division title in 2024. While Atlantic City got revenge on the Grasshoppers for their Game 7 Cartwright loss in 2023, knocking the Grasshoppers off in the Doubleday, Indy has been an extremely successful franchise since moving to the Hoosier State, and I see more of the same this year.

Indy has done a lot of work on the offense, and despite dealing away Doug Glover last year in a mutually beneficial move, there’s still plenty to look at on the offense. Mario Soriano is one of the league’s best singles hitters, and he has led the league in stolen bases in each of the past three years. He and Valeri Kharlmanov are two of the maybe three or four most valuable position players in the MBWBA who aren’t home run hitters, though Kharlmanov’s 14 isn’t bad for a second baseman. Newman Watson broke out in a big way last year, and Mike Love and Sergio Ramos were steady. The team is strong defensively at most positions.

That said, Indy has taken some hits in the rotation. Kevin Lee may have put up numbers, but he doesn’t look like the same pitcher as he was before the injury; if you were to ask anyone to look at Lee and Francisco Medina and ask them which pitcher they thought was better, they’d say, “well, that’s simple: Lee is a reliever.” Major regression candidate. Indy also generally gets better ERAs than their FIP because of their defense. Eduardo Lopez could bounce back big this year, though, and Juan Lopez was just as productive in Indy as he was in California, a good sign.

Overall, I would say Indy is very likely to grab at least a wild card this year, depending on whether New Orleans goes through the resurgence I expect, but I also expect the team to fall back somewhat because of the loss of Glover.

Projected Record: 89-73



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New Orleans Crawdads

Other preview:

Last year's record: 85-77, second, FLM (Missed Playoffs for first time since 2011)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 698/680


Gained:

C Hank Sharp (trade)

RP Pedro Espin (trade)

3B Tomas Lopez


Lost:

RF Joey Rosko

SP Rick MacDonald (waivers)

st
Outlook:

The streak is over. For the first time since 2011, New Orleans finished the season without playing in the postseason. They came upon it honorably, too; New Orleans finished with a run differential that translates to an 83-win season, and they actually won 85 last year. While they don’t look like a vastly different team, a closer look says that this is a team that could easily bounce back to win 90 games this year.

A lot had to go wrong for New Orleans to miss the playoffs last year. Manuel Ramirez, the 2022 FL Steve Nebraska winner, didn’t finish in the top nine in Steve Nebraska votes, which is completely unheard of for him. Ramirez’s 3.40 ERA last year wasn’t large, but it WAS the highest of his career – expect him to rebound. Miguel Datiz has maybe the best stuff in the MBWBA, and while he’ll always give up a few homers, he ought to be very scary this year, way better than 148 innings in 26 starts (how did that even happen?) and a 4.48 ERA. Michael Leroy and Luis Espinoza are a good combination in the 3 and 4 spots and while they have a fifth starter problem, who doesn’t? Their bullpen looks a lot worse with Flint Colbert out of it, and they’ll need some players like Carlos Hernandez to improve this season.

Their outfield aged badly and all at once, but they’ve begun to restock that, too. James Cunningham should step in and do a smashup job defensively in center field. While Pedro Canales doesn’t belong in the outfield, he does belong at the plate; how come some organizations seem to find players who have meteoric rises, like New Orleans (see Mark Dempsey), while some never find any guys like that? Canales doesn’t even make sense; a year ago, he was organizational filler, and suddenly, in the middle of November, he becomes Pedro Burgos.

At any rate, New Orleans should hit better than last year, field better than last year, and Miguel Datiz ought to pitch better than last year. I think that makes them, what’s the word I’m looking for? Oh, yeah. Better. I’m going to punch them up to the same 90 wins I had them at last year.

Projected Record: 90-72


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Des Moines Kernels

Other preview:

Last year's record: 80-82, third, FLM (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 645/749


Gained:

3B Connor Tyldsley

SP Rio Underhill

IF Julio Hernandez

OF Andino Pizzolato


Lost:

1B Fulton Reed


Outlook:

Des Moines’ 80 wins last year were more than they had won in a decade, where they averaged 7.9 wins per year. Just kidding, of course; I was referring to the 2014 Des Moines team that went 86-76, but around Central Iowa, it has to FEEL like last year was the first one that counted in a while. So this is right about the time I start talking about Pythagorean record and show how Des Moines’ entire season was a smokescreen and…

No. I’m just not going to do it. Des Moines deserves a little good news, and while it wasn’t a winning record, the Kernels ALMOST finished with a winning record. For heck’s sake, they weren’t even eliminated from the wild card race until late September.

It was admittedly a bit comforting to see Des Moines not go crazy this offseason, as they spent about $13 million on two Rule 6 players and, more reassuring, two Rule 5 players. In the past, Des Moines would have put a gaping hole in their #4 ranked farm system to try to boost themselves into a wild card spot. It’s almost like they’re looking for proof that last year wasn’t a fluke! Proof even!

And they should double-check; the Kernels finished 10th in offense and 10th in runs allowed last year (though the second number sounds a lot worse than it was). Their offense has right-handed disease and their bullpen is marginal, but their rotation, spearheaded by underrated starter Tavio Ciccolella and pitchers like Lambert Snabel, Alejandro Ramos, and Ramon Farias, isn’t that bad. Mike Davis has to give up less homers, but otherwise he looks pretty good.

Des Moines is going to have a little bit of a money issue this offseason, but potentially not a huge one. They’re starting to get there as a team; now they have to be more careful with their finances. They’ll be able to save $10 million next year by dumping Pop Gonzalez and Maxim Knight, and guys like Josh Herman and Francisco Marquez ought to be gone. Their payroll will be down to a meager $49 million in 2027 without sacrificing any on-field talent. And did I mention the fourth-ranked farm? Des Moines just got interesting, folks.

Projected Record: 73-89


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Birmingham Bandits

Other preview:

Last year's record: 72-90, last, FLM (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 726/723


Gained:

C Ernest Watts

RP Juan Cruz

RP Gabriel Sabido (waivers)

SP Mario Lopez (waivers)



Lost:

RP Sven Trauner

2B Tisnal Blythin (Rule 5)


Outlook:

Last year I pointed out that the 2023 Birmingham team that went 84-78 was the luckiest team in the Frick League last year by expected record, which they were, by seven games. Well, as lucky as they were with their record in 2023, they were unluckier in 2024. While they finished with a 72-90 record, they had a +3 run differential and an expected record of 81-81. That’s a -9 for those of you scoring at home. Yuck. We can say that the Bandits were definitely better than their record.

Secondly, when I projected this team, I said that they were a little above average with a large, large beta (betas, for those of you who don’t know, is a propensity for wild swings in results; a large beta is a large capacity for big swings). Yup. If the pendulum swung back the other way for Birmingham again, they’d have won 90 games instead of losing 90 games. The Bandits made two huge moves to try to get back into the playoffs, and, well, uh, they finished behind Des Moines anyway.


Birmingham still has maybe the best top two pitchers in the FL in Nelson Ramirez and Juan Jose Ornelas, who might actually be the best two pitchers in the FL, period. Their bullpen has a fair amount of talent as well, and Dave Wren and Mario Lopez are serviceable in the third and fourth spots.

But Birmingham might be toast. Remember how they went out and got Pedro Vega? Well, Vega pulled a reverse Pedro Canales this offseason, lumping fiercely. This just shreds the heart of the order and puts Birmingham back behind the eight ball offensively. They’re going to need big years by everybody to get there. I’m not going to send this team as far down as they finished last year, but I’m seeing some serious issues arising, especially if they have any injuries anywhere.

I don’t know what to do about it, but I do know that they’re going to have to figure something out. They have a clear sense of this, frontloading Nelson Ramirez’s extension. Birmingham shouldn’t be a contender this year, but, well, I’d say you never know with this team.

Projected Record: 76-86


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Frick League West Division
Other preview:







Seattle Storm

Other preview:

Last year's record: 92-70, first, FLP (Made playoffs, lost in Cartwright)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 832/741


Gained:

SP Stevie Wolarski

RP Wayne Williams



Lost:

The ghost of Daniel Silva

Nothing else of great importance.


Outlook:

Last year, Seattle won their first division title in a decade, then won their first playoff series in a little longer than that. Right now, their offense might be the single best unit of any sort in either league. So, the question becomes: can they maintain their success despite a pitching staff that anyone would question?

Seattle made the playoffs last year and won a round despite having a pitching staff without one single top starter. Domingo Becerra was the closest thing they had to that, and he threw 64 innings and has started losing velocity this offseason. Terrence Miller is a reliever who’s been out of position for a decade. Esteban Rivera couldn’t start for at least a third of the teams in the league. The underrated Jose Oliva (who gave up 10 homers in 189 innings and an unusually small number of walks) might not have found the rotation for anyone else, and he went 14-9 with a 3.63 ERA last year. In other words, it’s a strange group of pitchers, helped out by the Seattle ballpark and a pretty fair defense.

If the pitching staff can keep the team in it at all, the offense can win it every single day. Ralph Benson won the batting title last year, and along with Juan Escobar and Jorge Rodriguez form the best hitting nucleus of any team in the MBWBA. The rest of the offense is made up of solid starters and useful role players, and they make it work very easily.

Seattle’s 92 wins wasn’t even their most in the last three years, and as long as they have an offense like they have, they should be competitive. 87-93 wins and a second division title seems right. It’s really too bad they don’t have a farm, because one more of something might put them over the top.

Projected Record: 88-74


[hr]


Las Vegas Hustlers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 91-71, second, FLP (Made Playoffs, Lost in Geoghegan)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 752/653


Gained:

C Maxwell Weiss, Jr.

1B/DH Jack Gulliver (trade)

OF Pedro Reyes

3B Diego Ardon (trade)

RP Manuel Diaz (waivers)

2B Rafael Diaz (waivers)


Lost:

RP Pedro Espin (trade)

CF Benjamin Franklin Pierce (trade)

3B Hunter Eisenhower (trade)

1B Miguel Gonzalez (trade)

DH William Billies (waivers)

RP Alfredo Chavez (trade)

RP Craig Browning (trade)


Outlook:

Well. That went bad in a hurry.

Two phrases we thought we’d never see in the same sentence: Mike Swanson, toxic contract. Don’t get me wrong; I think Swanson is still a good pitcher, but for how long? Wait, it gets worse. Gary Estes is still fantastic, but Manny Bautista is showing signs of age, Phillip Morris was underwhelming last year, and Mike Bailey isn’t anyone’s savior. Even Pedro Espin isn’t immune. Las Vegas is so deep that their second string pitchers are as good as some people’s rotations, but they’re in deep, deep trouble right now. They still have Luis Tiant IV leading their pen, with others, but this is not the same rotation we’ve been glowing about for almost a decade now.

So how’s the offense?

(Wait, Matt, wouldn’t you rather start reading the Tucson preview right now? You kinda know how this is going.)

So, uh, I think the best hitter they have right now other than Bartolo Melendez is Tony Banuelos.

(Are you sure you want to keep reading? I guess it gets a little cheerier.)

Gervasio Ridder, newly acquired Jack Gulliver, Banuelos and maybe guys like Ramon Espinosa provide a decent offensive nucleus for the future, so that’s good news. Alfredo Martinez could be pretty good too. Signing Maxwell Weiss also helps, especially since Weiss is a good fit for the Vegas park. So Vegas has managed to rebuild somewhat on the fly. And Vegas does have the 7th best farm in the league. And Melendez is still very serviceable, though it would be a massively huge upset if he repeated his .983 OPS this season; it was the third highest mark of his possible Hall of Fame career.

Depending on what happens with Swanson and Bautista, this season could go downhill in a hurry. They could also be fine if a lot of guys get base hits, but this is clearly not the same shining city on a hill they were last year. I fear their championship window, long as it was, has closed shut without a single additional title. Guess five will have to be enough. Now the good news: I think they’re still going to finish on the right side of the line – just maybe not far enough for a playoff spot.

Projected Record: 85-77


[hr]



Calgary Pioneers

Other preview:

Last year's record: 82-80, third, FLP (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 760/814


Gained:

OF William Moody (Rule 5)

RP Parker Morris (Rule 5)


Lost:

1B Juan Torres

1B Yeong-hwan Kim

OF Bill Burkholder, Jr.


Outlook:

Calgary finished above .500 last year despite not being particularly good; their run differential was the worst of any team with a winning record by 49 runs, and they were underwater by 54 runs last season. Calgary still isn’t close to bottoming out, however, as a lot of the parts that are still here still work.

Calgary still has Jorge Jimenez and a good-looking bullpen, and Natsume Tsuchiya will get more innings this year for the Pioneers. There aren’t any serious holes in the rotation and Armando Morales, Rob Miller, and Esteban Ortiz are a decent late-inning group. At the same time: observe the incredible shrinking Edward Simpson. Ever since his torn labrum in 2023 that sidelined him for a quarter of 2024, Simpson has been on a downward spiral. He’s still serviceable, but he’s not worth $16 million. So it’s a mixed bag.

The lineup is a little strange. Dan Leonard is in the wrong park for his talents and Hector Cano hasn’t been the same since his 53-homer season of 2022. But Tony Franco has been one of the best third basemen in the league for several years now, and Gabriel Bonilla rained down unholy fire on the league last year in the sort of year they imagined when he came out of college. Marcio Rocha also put up a great debut season, finishing second in the Joe Gillstrom voting. So it’s a deep lineup with lots of pretty good parts.

In other words, Calgary is one of those teams that isn’t nearly bad enough to collapse, but they’re not good enough to contend for anything much. I’m going to keep their prediction about the same for this year, and if everything goes right, they could contend for a wild card. And I do mean everything, right down to the mascot being named Mascot of the Year.

Projected Record: 76-86


[hr]

Tucson Cactus

Other preview:

Last year's record: 79-83, last, FLP (missed playoffs)
2022 Runs scored/Runs allowed: 708/703


Gained:

C Jeremy Cirolli (Rule 6)


Lost:

SP Martin Lewis

C Timmy Tim

SP Mario Lopez (waivers

2B Rafael Diaz (waivers)


Outlook:


Tucson finally got out of the cellar in 2023. Last year, they went right back into the cellar. Admittedly, this is a much better Tucson team than in previous years, and the “cellar” in this case was an 80-82 record. However, was a season that left Tucson more questions than answers.

For example, nobody questions that Leon Sandcastle might be the best player in the game. However, he’s missed a total of 87 games in the past two years, including 49 games last season. Can Sandcastle lead them to a title, or just sit on the DL? 49 more games of Sandcastle is probably at least two wins all by himself, at least. In fact, toss in another 9 starts and 60 innings from Jose Cavazos, and that’s probably another win or two. Now we’re at 83 wins, 85 on the Pythagorean scale, and maybe they’re starting to move into a playoff spot.

Then you look at the pitching staff. Is there anyone in the league who couldn’t start Tully Crow in their rotation? Yet he went 13-13 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.4 WAR, largely based on the fact that he allowed 37 homers in 200 innings. I am equally dumbfounded by how a pitcher as talented as Jose Rivera had a 1.2 WAR, a year after posting a 13-11, 2.76 season.

Tucson should have made the playoffs last year, probably. All the conditions were right: they only needed 88 wins to force a playoff with Atlantic City, they had their best team easily since they were in Long Beach; yet, they couldn’t even take their first winning record since 2014, and their team collapsed. The team has issues in the bullpen and some more mild ones in the lineup and rotation, but this is a good ballclub. I’m going to put them on 84 wins, which was the least they should have had this year. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won 90 and the division title, or if they won 75 and started tearing it down, but I’ll put them in the middle of those numbers.

Projected Record: 84-78

[hr]

[njherdfan]

Excellent work. I just hope losing the ghost of Daniel Silva doesn't hurt me too much.

[aaronweiner]

Excellent work. I just hope losing the ghost of Daniel Silva doesn't hurt me too much.

Well, I hear he's got a grandmother who does voodoo, so I'd be on the lookout for zombies.

[aaronweiner]

No addendums I can see so far from trades.

[Edward Murphy]

Feels like i'm turning the corner

[Cliche]

Great stuff as always. Hoping we can climb a little higher than 90 wins but it'll be tough as always. Definitely hoping our Boone/Campos combo pitches more like they did two years ago.

[Chey]

The game's prediction engine likes Havana to take the division... I'm normally pretty dismissive of OOTP's pre-season predictions but that sounds about right to me!!

[c-mitch]

I hate my team.

[aaronweiner]

Great stuff as always. Hoping we can climb a little higher than 90 wins but it'll be tough as always. Definitely hoping our Boone/Campos combo pitches more like they did two years ago.

No shame in 90 wins and a division title. Get it while you got it.