61.121 > Options For 2062

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61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by RonCo » Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:36 pm

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Choices, Choices, Choices...


October 15, 2061 | Forever Land | With the season coming to its inevitable Nashville sweep of an end, the Bikini Krill front office turns to various decisions they will need to make in the off-season. First will be team options, and then arbitration concerns. We'll focus on Team options, first, and in this case we'll add in the question of Shea Valance and an extension, which does not seem to be in the cards. Valance's $2.5M contract runs out this year, and he's made it know he'd be happy to return for a price. That price seems to be more than the team is willing to pay, so we're expecting a Valance-less team in 2062.

Beyond that issue, the club owns three options. Let's look at them:


Felix Vidaca: $14M ($4M Buyout)
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Vidaca is going to be 37 next year. He's still been an effective pitcher, but not so effective as to merit $14M. This puts the team in an awkward position. Vidaca is a player who followers of the team like quite a bit. If the Krill chose not to execute their option, fan excitement (which is already not high), could crater. If fan excitement craters, say goodbye to revenue. No revenue, no team. It would be made worse by another team scooping him up on the cheap and having a solid year. For this downfall, the club would pay the $4M buyout and get bupkis.

The flipside could be just as bad. If the club retains him, they get tagged with the full $14M and get a flaming end to a great career. The guy's ratings are obviously fading, and the team's finances are threadbare. So...no win, right?

There is apparently some conversation about trying to extend his career by converting him to a full-time reliever, which would perhaps at least staunch the velocity drops we've all seen. The theory is that if he focuses on the pen, he adds to what should already be an amazing of arms. Yes, it would be an over-pay, but if he performs perhaps the team could flip him for a prospect as the season goes. Or, if he pitches well all year, perhaps a comp pick would come along. Either might at least mitigate the cost.

What's going to happen?

I have no idea.


Francisco Ortiz: $6M ($1.25M Buyout)
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A year ago, Ortiz was considered to be a solid enough pitcher that the idea of paying him $6M wasn't so bad. He was nothing flashy, of course. Not a top guy. But he was someone the manager could give the ball to and not really worry too much.

Time changes everything, though.

Like Vidaca, Ortiz will be 37 next year. There exists a chance that he'll bounce back and have another decent season or two before he's done. But I don't see the Krill betting $6M on that future happening.

Expect Ortiz to be declined.


Enrique Aguilar: $2.5M ($900M Buyout)
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Take away September (and April, really) and you've got a stellar guy in the bullpen. The question, then, is to decide if it's a good idea to take away September (and April, really). Aguilar is 31 now.

He's been a little suspect to the longball, but if he has a solid enough season there is a reasonable chance the team would even extend him next year. That said, he has been a real up and down pitcher all his career. There's enough concern over the variation in his performance to raise questions.

Regardless, with the depth of the pen, I'm going to guess that the team will take the chance and execute their option rather than paying him to leave.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by trmmilwwi » Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:27 pm

Players like Aguilar are so frustrating.. lots of great pitching with a few whoopsies thrown in every so often. Such is life in the pen I guess.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by ae37jr » Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:30 pm

Vidica is a tough situation. You don't need him in your pen. Sinking $14 million there would be a waste. If you RP convert him, he will lose all trade value. Nobody is going to give up anything for a 37 year old, $14 million RP.

The best bet, whether it is in Bikini or via trade, is for him to start. Maybe a team says... I got some extra cash/cap and need a starter, Vidica on a one and done deal makes sense. But that kind of deal may not materialize till March/April. Is it worth the gamble to pick up the option?
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by RonCo » Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:51 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:30 pm
Vidica is a tough situation. You don't need him in your pen. Sinking $14 million there would be a waste. If you RP convert him, he will lose all trade value. Nobody is going to give up anything for a 37 year old, $14 million RP.

The best bet, whether it is in Bikini or via trade, is for him to start. Maybe a team says... I got some extra cash/cap and need a starter, Vidica on a one and done deal makes sense. But that kind of deal may not materialize till March/April. Is it worth the gamble to pick up the option?
There's a lot that has to go right for the decision to keep him to go well financially, either way. He's not going to be worth $14M (I wouldn't expect) either way unless I find a way to bring in a prospect when he leaves. If that's via the trade route, I'd guess it would be later in the year, and be accompanied by salary retention that made the expenditure worth it for someone else.

Alternatively, if he becomes a worth comp pick (which assumes we don't make the post season), then we get whatever value made that level of WAR + a late #1 or #2.

None of it great math, but it is what it is. We're in pretty fair position on payroll, though. So given it's a 1-season deal I'm not sure where I'll end up. After all, the other side is that letting him go means paying $4M for what I'm sure will be a couple point Fan Interest drop. Which I really, really don't need right now.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by ae37jr » Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:52 pm

You can always gamble and decline the team option and try to resign him. He is coming off a down year, so I doubt he'd be asking for $10 mil. Maybe $6 mil? You'd probably have to give him at least 2 years though. So that's 12+4 mil buyout and he'll be $16 for 2 instead of 14 for one. Throw in an opt out and maybe he bites. I think you'd also get a FI bump for resigning him, but I have no clue how FI works anymore.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by RonCo » Tue Jan 07, 2025 3:55 pm

The real question is how far would he drop his ask as the market adjusts. He's asking for $10.6/4 to extend beyond 2061. I'm sure that would negotiate down, though I haven't really attempted to find how how far down he'd go.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by ae37jr » Tue Jan 07, 2025 4:21 pm

Ouch. There goes that idea. I probably wouldn't go that route then. By the time you pay the opt out, you'd be paying him more in 2062 and adding 3 years.
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Re: 61.121 > Options For 2062

Post by DugoutDesperado » Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:27 am

That is definitely a quandary on Felix. I am usually pretty aggressive on letting people go who are not earning their keep except when the fan interest tanks. But then again, I have yet to see a game in October in my three years since I have returned.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), my decision with Mark Kimball next year will be much easier.
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