Off Topic
Wherein We Bend The Value of PAA?
April 24, 2060: Forever Land – as the bikini baseball team prepares to host their next series with the Hawaii tropics , let's take a moment to take what might be a silly look at the impact of roster changes that came as a requirement after injury. To refresh, thick gloved outfielders Michael Buckley and Graham Aubry went to the IL pine, to be replaced by Fernando Bushey and Stephen Schmidt. That's the positive side of the Ledger. The negative side saw sure handed Keith Williams head to the IL, to be replaced by power hitting but mediocre gloveman Run-ming Gui.
One is allowed to guess what kind of impact that might have on a team's defense, but seeing as we've been playing with this silly plays above average metric, we thought now might be a fun time to take a look at some numbers. Specifically, the numbers we're going to look at are the infield ground balls, outfield fly balls, and line drives for each.
Duh, right?
So let's tabulate the data on a week by week basis, on games that have occurred since Opening Day. There are of course caveats to be made. Sample size, sample size, sample size. In addition, since these are all based on league average performance, there's always a little squishiness involved when it comes to the breakouts of actual ground balls and fly balls and line drives. I think this squishiness goes mostly away in the big picture, but when you're talking about changes on a weekly basis, simply the distribution of ground balls and fly balls can make a difference. So, reader beware.
That said, here is the data.
it's valuable here to note that the 1st 2 lines, data as of April 10th and April 17th, were created with the original configuration of defenders. That last week, however, was created with the fresh set. Not surprisingly I suppose, what we see is that relative to league average our infield defense here in bikini took a bit of a dive, but that was more than made-up for by a serious upgrade in our corner outfield defense.
At least that's what this data says. Whether the data is telling the truth or not is of course hard to say. But it does match our preconceived bias and expectations. While our downgraded shortstop appears to have dropped our infields performance by 6/10 of the play on ground balls and roughly the same on line drives in just one week, the outfield made 83 play difference on fly balls in a 2 and a quarter plate difference online drives. As would be expected then, our overall net plays above average improved by some 4 plays across the whole of the season to date.
I suppose it would be interesting to actually do a week by week comparison. Interesting, at least on an emotional basis even if we know one week's data is not particularly valuable. But I admit to being intrigued at that level even if I am not willing to put in the work to figure it out.
Buckley ready to return:
These were thoughts going through my head right now, because this experiment was made possible by the fact that Michael Buckley's bad back strain was enough to deter his hitting capabilities enough to set him down. The trainers say he is now ready to go. This means that in order to put him back into the active roster, we need to send an outfielder back to Pasco.
To be honest, I'm not sure who it's going to be.
Bushy is an obvious candidate, as is Marty Barnett.
Theoretically, Aubry comes off the IL next week, and we have the same question for Stephen Schmidt.
There is also the anecdotal fact looming that the team went 4-2 this sim, including a road sweep of a strong Valencia ballclub.
What to do, right? What to do? What to do? What to do?
April 24, 2060: Forever Land – as the bikini baseball team prepares to host their next series with the Hawaii tropics , let's take a moment to take what might be a silly look at the impact of roster changes that came as a requirement after injury. To refresh, thick gloved outfielders Michael Buckley and Graham Aubry went to the IL pine, to be replaced by Fernando Bushey and Stephen Schmidt. That's the positive side of the Ledger. The negative side saw sure handed Keith Williams head to the IL, to be replaced by power hitting but mediocre gloveman Run-ming Gui.
One is allowed to guess what kind of impact that might have on a team's defense, but seeing as we've been playing with this silly plays above average metric, we thought now might be a fun time to take a look at some numbers. Specifically, the numbers we're going to look at are the infield ground balls, outfield fly balls, and line drives for each.
Duh, right?
So let's tabulate the data on a week by week basis, on games that have occurred since Opening Day. There are of course caveats to be made. Sample size, sample size, sample size. In addition, since these are all based on league average performance, there's always a little squishiness involved when it comes to the breakouts of actual ground balls and fly balls and line drives. I think this squishiness goes mostly away in the big picture, but when you're talking about changes on a weekly basis, simply the distribution of ground balls and fly balls can make a difference. So, reader beware.
That said, here is the data.
| GB | FB | LD(IF) | LD(OF) | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Apr | -0.8 | -3.2 | 0.47 | -2.13 | -5.66 |
| 17-Apr | -0.61 | -4.81 | 3.3 | -3.71 | -5.83 |
| 24-Apr | -1.12 | -1.76 | 2.73 | -1.59 | -1.75 |
At least that's what this data says. Whether the data is telling the truth or not is of course hard to say. But it does match our preconceived bias and expectations. While our downgraded shortstop appears to have dropped our infields performance by 6/10 of the play on ground balls and roughly the same on line drives in just one week, the outfield made 83 play difference on fly balls in a 2 and a quarter plate difference online drives. As would be expected then, our overall net plays above average improved by some 4 plays across the whole of the season to date.
I suppose it would be interesting to actually do a week by week comparison. Interesting, at least on an emotional basis even if we know one week's data is not particularly valuable. But I admit to being intrigued at that level even if I am not willing to put in the work to figure it out.
Buckley ready to return:
These were thoughts going through my head right now, because this experiment was made possible by the fact that Michael Buckley's bad back strain was enough to deter his hitting capabilities enough to set him down. The trainers say he is now ready to go. This means that in order to put him back into the active roster, we need to send an outfielder back to Pasco.
To be honest, I'm not sure who it's going to be.
Bushy is an obvious candidate, as is Marty Barnett.
Theoretically, Aubry comes off the IL next week, and we have the same question for Stephen Schmidt.
There is also the anecdotal fact looming that the team went 4-2 this sim, including a road sweep of a strong Valencia ballclub.
What to do, right? What to do? What to do? What to do?
