Off Topic
What's To Come for the Bikini Rotation?
September 25, 2062 | Marshall Islands > Bikini manager Kate Fiscus deployed a total of 10 different pitchers to start games this season. The result was pretty much the picture you get when as ChatGPT to define "a real mixed bag." As we type this, the team's rotation sits at 11th in Frick League ERA. "Eleven" may be a lucky number, but it's not what the team expected at the first of the year. This despite the fact that the staff as a whole is second in strikeouts, and was, until a few mid-season transactions, also in the top two or three in the league in control.
There was a point where the club's overall FIP was second best in the league behind only Nashville. Those days, alas, are now gone, and what remains is in some form of shellshock. A lot of it doesn't make that much sense (the bullpen, for example, is hard to quantify), but a lot of it does (veteran Arturo Meza seems to consistently underperform, and may have his a bit of a speedbump this year). Then again, Jon Brown had a really solid season, and did not get hurt. And rookie Paul Worboys debuted, and while he wasn't overpowering, he was considerably better than the guy(s) he replaced.
See? Mixed bag.
Bottom line is that the front office (me) truly thought this staff would be much, much better than it turned out to be. So maybe that's on me. I've got to think about my assessments.
So, let's go look at some specifics.
The primary starters were the Big Four (and Brody Picot, who was traded in mid-season). By the end of the season, Felix Vidaca had once again taken his turn. We'll walk through each of them, taking a cut at a year-over-year study as well as discussing issues surrounding their tenure with the team. And then we'll check out the rest of the rest.
Jon Brown
Jon Brown was quite good this season and was strong enough in the first half that team insiders were buzzing that if the club were to win much of anything, Brown could be in the conversation for the Frick Nebraska. That, of course, did not happen. Brown took the ball 33 times, but was shut down the last week of the season. His HR rate was up a touch, but he was highly successful at pitching to soft contact (his BABIP dropped 56 points).
The questions that surround Brown going forward are whether, at 34 years old, he wants another shot at free agency. He's due to reprise his $9M salary for the next three seasons, but holds an option for this coming year, with the team holds similar power over the last two. He's said to be quite happy in Bikini, but the idea that he might command mid-teen millions could be too attractive to pass up. If he stays in town, he'll likely still be the club "ace."
Takashi Nakamura
Nakamura is another poster boy for stars that fell off in 2062.
He did 3.4 WAR last season, on a 1-year $21M overpay of a contract that resulted in him signing a linger term extension in the 2061-2062 off season that pays him $8M a pop through 2065. The club was thrilled to have him. At 7-10, 4.99, and now 34 years old, we're not sure that's feeling like such a good idea now. It's not that Nakamura is a bad pitcher, nor even that much overpaid at $8M, it's more that the contract ties up those funds for three more "at risk" seasons. His BABIP blew up this year, and the WAR droppedthough some of that was due to an elbow strain that shelved him for a month. Bottom line, though, Nakamura's FIP- went from a workable 88 to an essentially league average 96.
Taking a look at his development report as a way of exploring the reason for such a drop-off reveals a particular annoyance I have with the V25 development engine. It's all over the place Bumps, and Lumps and Lumps and Bumps. Who can tell what our baseball people really think?
Still, his ratings are solid enough.
He should be better.
Hopefully he will be, too, because barring some kind of a trade, he's coming back next year.
Arturo Meza
Since coming to the team in deal with Omaha, Meza has been a solid, but not spectacular pitcher. The kind of guy who manages to win mor than he loses, but mostly by keeping his guys In the game until the bats can do something. That works. Usually. But 2062 was a weird season for Meza. He lost a start of two to a bad back, so that's not great. But his WAR numbers were effectively the same but made on 22 fewer innings. That should be good news, but it's not. Meza's ERA ballooned by over a run. That said, his FIP- (106) was nearly identical to last years (104), both of which are quite far up from the high 80she had been turning.
That's not a great sign.
While his velocity has remained in place, the stuff dropped a notch, and as the dog days of August were wearing down, some have said command of his repertoire might be fading a bit.
Those are not good signs, either.
Bottom line, it would be hard to look at his lines from 2062 and consider him to NOT have made a pretty firm regression. And at age 30 there's now a full blow question as to whether he should be considered as a top-middle of the order pitcher. Given his already high HR rate, which didn't show signs of improving this season, if things progress as they have been we'd guess the team would be happier with him at the bottom of the rotation, or in a long relief role. Maybe for some other team.
His deal should keep him with the club for 2063, though. After that, we'll see.
Paul Worboys
For his rookie season, Paul Worboys replaced Francisco Ortiz, and that turns out to have been a fantastic deal. One can say Worboys had a bit of a learning curve in his first season, but on all counts you would call it a good one. A late year Stuff Bump has some thinking he could be #2 to Brown's lead next year. That that might be stretching it.
Obviously, he'll be back.
Brody Picot
For completeness, here is the split for Picot before he was traded to Charlotte. There were lots of good things here. He was still effective enough, anyway. His BABIP was down and his WAR accumulation was in the right ballpark. From our standpoint, the deal was more about finances and free agency than it was any deep concern for his performance.
Felix Vidaca
Despite being converted to a reliever in the off season, Vidaca has started for the last five weeks or so, and has been quite effective, albeit for only 60 pitches. Proof again that the idea of a two-pitch (and low stamina) pitcher can work. His numbers are probably better this year than last, so we can't blame any regression on him.
Vidaca's future is up to him. We have what is basically a mutual option, so what I mean by that is that we'll almost certainly execute our side of that option if it comes to us. Basically we're waiting to see what he wants to do. At 36, I'm assuming someone would give him more than $6M he'll be owed next year.
But we'll see.
The Rest
Four other pitchers started games for us. Somerville had his moments, as did Deckard (who really was an all or nothing kind of guy. Truss struggled, but I still kind of believe in him. Aguilar got raked as a starter, but was quite good as a reliever.
As far as the future goes, I'd say all these guys are on a "let's see what happens" kind of a thing for 2063. Aguilera is probably moving on simply do to money and the fact that we have kid pitchers who are probably as good for cheaper.
September 25, 2062 | Marshall Islands > Bikini manager Kate Fiscus deployed a total of 10 different pitchers to start games this season. The result was pretty much the picture you get when as ChatGPT to define "a real mixed bag." As we type this, the team's rotation sits at 11th in Frick League ERA. "Eleven" may be a lucky number, but it's not what the team expected at the first of the year. This despite the fact that the staff as a whole is second in strikeouts, and was, until a few mid-season transactions, also in the top two or three in the league in control.
There was a point where the club's overall FIP was second best in the league behind only Nashville. Those days, alas, are now gone, and what remains is in some form of shellshock. A lot of it doesn't make that much sense (the bullpen, for example, is hard to quantify), but a lot of it does (veteran Arturo Meza seems to consistently underperform, and may have his a bit of a speedbump this year). Then again, Jon Brown had a really solid season, and did not get hurt. And rookie Paul Worboys debuted, and while he wasn't overpowering, he was considerably better than the guy(s) he replaced.
See? Mixed bag.
Bottom line is that the front office (me) truly thought this staff would be much, much better than it turned out to be. So maybe that's on me. I've got to think about my assessments.
So, let's go look at some specifics.
The primary starters were the Big Four (and Brody Picot, who was traded in mid-season). By the end of the season, Felix Vidaca had once again taken his turn. We'll walk through each of them, taking a cut at a year-over-year study as well as discussing issues surrounding their tenure with the team. And then we'll check out the rest of the rest.
Jon Brown
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Jon Brown | 10 | 5 | 4.04 | 20 | 100.1 | 45 | 6 | 28 | 75 | 0.322 | 2.4 |
| 2062 | Jon Brown | 10 | 12 | 3.89 | 33 | 189.2 | 82 | 18 | 41 | 117 | 0.266 | 3.5 |
The questions that surround Brown going forward are whether, at 34 years old, he wants another shot at free agency. He's due to reprise his $9M salary for the next three seasons, but holds an option for this coming year, with the team holds similar power over the last two. He's said to be quite happy in Bikini, but the idea that he might command mid-teen millions could be too attractive to pass up. If he stays in town, he'll likely still be the club "ace."
Takashi Nakamura
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Takashi Nakamura | 11 | 12 | 3.88 | 33 | 176.1 | 76 | 15 | 71 | 155 | 0.309 | 3.4 |
| 2062 | Takashi Nakamura | 7 | 10 | 4.99 | 28 | 149.2 | 83 | 18 | 36 | 101 | 0.332 | 2.3 |
He did 3.4 WAR last season, on a 1-year $21M overpay of a contract that resulted in him signing a linger term extension in the 2061-2062 off season that pays him $8M a pop through 2065. The club was thrilled to have him. At 7-10, 4.99, and now 34 years old, we're not sure that's feeling like such a good idea now. It's not that Nakamura is a bad pitcher, nor even that much overpaid at $8M, it's more that the contract ties up those funds for three more "at risk" seasons. His BABIP blew up this year, and the WAR droppedthough some of that was due to an elbow strain that shelved him for a month. Bottom line, though, Nakamura's FIP- went from a workable 88 to an essentially league average 96.
Taking a look at his development report as a way of exploring the reason for such a drop-off reveals a particular annoyance I have with the V25 development engine. It's all over the place Bumps, and Lumps and Lumps and Bumps. Who can tell what our baseball people really think?
Still, his ratings are solid enough.
He should be better.
Hopefully he will be, too, because barring some kind of a trade, he's coming back next year.
Arturo Meza
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Arturo Meza | 12 | 12 | 4.33 | 35 | 199.2 | 96 | 35 | 44 | 161 | 0.278 | 2 |
| 2062 | Arturo Meza | 11 | 12 | 5.43 | 31 | 177.1 | 107 | 30 | 44 | 141 | 0.296 | 1.9 |
That's not a great sign.
While his velocity has remained in place, the stuff dropped a notch, and as the dog days of August were wearing down, some have said command of his repertoire might be fading a bit.
Those are not good signs, either.
Bottom line, it would be hard to look at his lines from 2062 and consider him to NOT have made a pretty firm regression. And at age 30 there's now a full blow question as to whether he should be considered as a top-middle of the order pitcher. Given his already high HR rate, which didn't show signs of improving this season, if things progress as they have been we'd guess the team would be happier with him at the bottom of the rotation, or in a long relief role. Maybe for some other team.
His deal should keep him with the club for 2063, though. After that, we'll see.
Paul Worboys
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Francisco Ortiz | 5 | 11 | 6.37 | 19 | 118.2 | 84 | 18 | 45 | 66 | 0.297 | -0.1 |
| 2062 | Paul Worboys | 10 | 7 | 4.07 | 30 | 159.1 | 72 | 16 | 59 | 118 | 0.293 | 2.5 |
Obviously, he'll be back.
Brody Picot
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Brody Picot | 8 | 8 | 4.01 | 27 | 143.2 | 64 | 14 | 24 | 131 | 0.309 | 3.7 |
| 2062 | Brody Picot | 1 | 5 | 4.32 | 12 | 66.2 | 32 | 7 | 17 | 52 | 0.297 | 1.3 |
Felix Vidaca
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | Felix Vidaca | 9 | 5 | 4.14 | 19 | 140.1 | 64 | 18 | 35 | 107 | 0.290 | 1.6 |
| 2062 | Felix Vidaca | 5 | 5 | 3.31 | 6 | 81.2 | 30 | 7 | 29 | 65 | 0.275 | 1.1 |
Vidaca's future is up to him. We have what is basically a mutual option, so what I mean by that is that we'll almost certainly execute our side of that option if it comes to us. Basically we're waiting to see what he wants to do. At 36, I'm assuming someone would give him more than $6M he'll be owed next year.
But we'll see.
The Rest
| Year | Name | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | ER | HR | BB | K | BABIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2062 | Herman Deckard SP | 3 | 7 | 5.42 | 12 | 78 | 47 | 20 | 15 | 66 | 0.278 | 0 |
| 2062 | Steve Truss SP | 0 | 0 | 6.11 | 3 | 17.2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 0.24 | -0.5 |
| 2062 | Enrique Aguilar RP | 2 | 4 | 6.66 | 2 | 48.2 | 36 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 0.324 | -0.4 |
| 2062 | Roger Sommerville SP | 0 | 1 | 3.57 | 2 | 17.2 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.365 | 0.2 |
As far as the future goes, I'd say all these guys are on a "let's see what happens" kind of a thing for 2063. Aguilera is probably moving on simply do to money and the fact that we have kid pitchers who are probably as good for cheaper.
