Off Topic
What's To Come in the Bikini Infield?
September 25, 2062 | Marshall Islands > I have said in the past that it can be more fun to write about a bad team than a good team, and while I will stand on that comment let me say that this year's Bikini baseball club was the example that disproved the rule. This team did not lose in an entertaining fashion. It was not so putrid that the aroma was near sweet. It did not lose with flair. It did not lose with panache. Instead this was one of those grinded out, lose by a run, often in the ninth, ball clubs for which watchers paid a heavy price. The club clearly underperformed, Dropping from an 89 victory level one year before to this piece of unreliable quandary fueled machinery in which it seemed essentially every player of some merit fell off in some measurable fashion. The names did not change, but the results were all over the place.
I'm not sure exactly where to start. Perhaps the best place would be last season, and to question that 89 victory tally. Of course that 89 victory tally came with a playoff series victory also, so it wasn't like the team just lucked their way to something better than mediocrity. Still, maybe 89 was the wrong number. By simple Pythagorean expectation the Krill should have won 83 games. So that's a fair assessment, too. I'd also be willing to split the difference, and say that the right number was 86 wins.
None of that really explains the performance we saw this season. Three games remain in the season, of course, so some of these numbers are going to be a little bit off for anyone reading out into the future. But the story will remain the same. (Does anybody remember laughter?)
Let's take a look around the horn
Starting with Mike McClure.
The first baseman was drafted in that miracle 2057 draft class down in the third round. He was selected specifically because he was essentially ready to play, and as a reasonably steady switch hitter he promised to provide at least three years of decent production minimum salary. That is effectively what he has done. Discounting in on 2059 cut McClure has been dependably worth about 2.5 WAR a season.
And yet, here is his 2062 season at age 28:
Reading his development report, the only real lasting change was a loss of BABIP, but his 2062 BABIP is better than his 2061. He dropped a point of power, too, but gained it back quickly. Still, the core differences in output is a skyrocketing K-rate (he has always been a strikeout machine), and a soft drop in the power numbers (he is four homers and three doubles down on the year). His homer rate dropped from .047/AB to .039/AB, and on the outside there's no reason to discern. And don't get me started on his defense, which by the eye test should be upper third, but most certainly has not been anywhere near that area code..
This makes the GM decisions for next year as appetizing as trying to choke down an over-cooked M'ope Dog at the Basilica. Just who is Mike McClure, and is he worth the 4M+ that his last season of arbitration is supposed to get him? If he's a 2.5 WAR guy, that answer is "yes." Or is 2062 real? If he is, we've got solid enough minor leaguers who can do .2 WAR for considerably less grub.
Did I mention or finances are tight?
Summary: Solid regression from last year, mostly AVK and SLG.
- - -
Next let's move around and talk about Napoleon Mellott.
There were some who seemed to want to suggest that the second baseman might be a source of some of the downfall that this year's Krill experienced. They have a decent case, though I think it's unwise to heap a full share of non-SPET appearance discontent on his shoulders. On top of what we'll see here, Mellott spent five weeks on the disables list with a sprained knee, and that didn't help.
Let's look at the numbers:
Look at that BABIP! It dropped 35 points, which showed up in a batting average of .238 (a 19-point drop) and a .332 OBP (a 25-point drop). On the plus side, his power numbers rose considerably, and his glove has quietly become something a touch above league average. Is he the same player who did 3.5 WAR in 2059? No. Would the team have benefited if he had matched that batting average and BABIP? Of course. On the whole, it is probably fair to lay some element of the team's malaise this year on the second baseman's shoulders, but I'm not sure I would vote him a full share of the SPET blame.
Still, there is so much uncertainty around Napoleon Mellott right now. I think everyone can agree that he did not raise his game, and his birth certificate will confirm that he's already turned 30 years old. And along with that BABIP performance (which has no obvious source in the development report), his strikeout rate has been gently fading. In addition, one wonders how long his newfound glove work will stick. Does a trick an older dog learns stay in the toolbox as long as one that a puppy pulls off? We would guess not. And now comes the question of arbitration, in which league pundits suggest he will make north of $6 million. And, well, the organization has some interesting prospects down in the minors, none of them appear to be ready to take the role in 2063.
What's a GM to do?
Summary: Deep BABIP regression from last year
- - -
The case of Keith Williams is a little brighter, though maybe not as bright as you'd like to see.
At 24, he posted a solid year--a year that, by WAR,--was better than last, but also by WAR was not the 3.0 kind of year his 21 and 22-year-old campaigns produced. His bat progressed, but his glove, somewhat unfathomably, regressed to essentially replacement level (-1.3 ZR, 1.003 EFF).
Here are his offensive numbers:
So the offensive numbers were up a touch, the defensive numbers were down a touch. But Williams was clearly not the problem. Given that he signed a $4.1M extension to avoid arbitration earlier this year, the decision going forward is obvious: Williams, full speed ahead.
Summary: Stable this year, but still off first two seasons.
- - -
The hot corner was a bit of a mess this year.
Kata Ishibashi started poorly, but eventually came around a bit. He got the bulk of time at third--102 starts. Defensively, he was above average. Offensively he was, well, if not quite the Hindenburg, at least the Hindenburg's understudy, hitting so poorly at one point that he lost the job to Manuel Martinez (who promptly gave it back).
Here are the numbers. (WARNING: They are enough to make Baby Jesus's eyes bleed while absorbing them).
The Home Run rate crashed by nearly 50% (.74/AB to .43/AB). BABIP fell off ten points. Batting average 25 points, OBP 29 points, slugging a whopping 129 points. Add it up, and you just watched a guy who posted 133 OPS+ in 2061 drop to 88. With numbers like that you'd better be able to play centerfield if you want a BBA job. (voice over: Ishibashi cannot play centerfield).
If there is a "positive" piece to this, though, it's that looking at Ishibashi's development reports during this time gives some insight as to why. The 28-year-old seems to have developed a serious allergy to baseball skills. In the past season he's lost AVK, Eye, and Contact Potential, and had his gap Potential toggle down and up again. He's had similar reactions on the raw ratings side.
In other words, one suspects Kata Ishibashi's career may be on life support as we speak. The Club still has veteran Run-ming Gui and still-youngish Martinez to play the position, and with Ishibashi's arbitration figure sitting at $2.8M, one has to question if the GM might be better able to save his own job by letting Ishibashi run free in the pasture. Maybe a GBC team could use him.
Just to check in, though, here are Gui's numbers year over year:
And here are Martinez's:
With manager Kate Fiscus working to find proper usage, Gui benefited from a limited playing time. His BABIP dropped, but he's never been a hit it and run kind of guy, and the power numbers were well up on a rate basis. Overall he was a good guy to have around.
Martinez had a fair year, too, but only fair. More had been expected of him, and at the end of the day, when he was handed the job fulltime he fell on his face. One suspects Martinez will be given pole position to win the job next year, but the casual observer has to acknowledge the uncertainty that surrounds him.
Summary: Ishibashi may have hit himself out of baseball, and Martinez had a regression. No one thinks Run-ming Gui is an everyday 3B anymore.
- - -
The final analysis has to say that the Bikini infield, which has been pretty stable for the past four or five seasons, appears to be in a state where a transition is needed. The question is whether the club sees that firmly enough, and (assuming they do) what the transition will consist of. The minor leagues can probably help at first base. Second and third are not quite so ready. If one of the young shortstops were to make a big jump in the off-season, one could see them ready at second (or even pushing Williams over), but that's a longshot.
Despite the lack of clarity on the crystal ball, though, a transition seems to be needed.
Did we mention finances are tight?
September 25, 2062 | Marshall Islands > I have said in the past that it can be more fun to write about a bad team than a good team, and while I will stand on that comment let me say that this year's Bikini baseball club was the example that disproved the rule. This team did not lose in an entertaining fashion. It was not so putrid that the aroma was near sweet. It did not lose with flair. It did not lose with panache. Instead this was one of those grinded out, lose by a run, often in the ninth, ball clubs for which watchers paid a heavy price. The club clearly underperformed, Dropping from an 89 victory level one year before to this piece of unreliable quandary fueled machinery in which it seemed essentially every player of some merit fell off in some measurable fashion. The names did not change, but the results were all over the place.
I'm not sure exactly where to start. Perhaps the best place would be last season, and to question that 89 victory tally. Of course that 89 victory tally came with a playoff series victory also, so it wasn't like the team just lucked their way to something better than mediocrity. Still, maybe 89 was the wrong number. By simple Pythagorean expectation the Krill should have won 83 games. So that's a fair assessment, too. I'd also be willing to split the difference, and say that the right number was 86 wins.
None of that really explains the performance we saw this season. Three games remain in the season, of course, so some of these numbers are going to be a little bit off for anyone reading out into the future. But the story will remain the same. (Does anybody remember laughter?)
Let's take a look around the horn
The first baseman was drafted in that miracle 2057 draft class down in the third round. He was selected specifically because he was essentially ready to play, and as a reasonably steady switch hitter he promised to provide at least three years of decent production minimum salary. That is effectively what he has done. Discounting in on 2059 cut McClure has been dependably worth about 2.5 WAR a season.
And yet, here is his 2062 season at age 28:
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 27 | 149 | 545 | 26 | 72 | 157 | 0.312 | 0.255 | 0.342 | 0.466 | 123 | 125 | 2.6 |
| 2062 | 28 | 147 | 565 | 22 | 61 | 184 | 0.323 | 0.244 | 0.317 | 0.428 | 100 | 102 | 0.2 |
This makes the GM decisions for next year as appetizing as trying to choke down an over-cooked M'ope Dog at the Basilica. Just who is Mike McClure, and is he worth the 4M+ that his last season of arbitration is supposed to get him? If he's a 2.5 WAR guy, that answer is "yes." Or is 2062 real? If he is, we've got solid enough minor leaguers who can do .2 WAR for considerably less grub.
Did I mention or finances are tight?
Summary: Solid regression from last year, mostly AVK and SLG.
- - -
There were some who seemed to want to suggest that the second baseman might be a source of some of the downfall that this year's Krill experienced. They have a decent case, though I think it's unwise to heap a full share of non-SPET appearance discontent on his shoulders. On top of what we'll see here, Mellott spent five weeks on the disables list with a sprained knee, and that didn't help.
Let's look at the numbers:
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 28 | 150 | 567 | 14 | 87 | 98 | 0.290 | 0.257 | 0.357 | 0.386 | 108 | 111 | 2.6 |
| 2062 | 29 | 121 | 479 | 19 | 66 | 87 | 0.255 | 0.238 | 0.332 | 0.415 | 101 | 104 | 2.5 |
Still, there is so much uncertainty around Napoleon Mellott right now. I think everyone can agree that he did not raise his game, and his birth certificate will confirm that he's already turned 30 years old. And along with that BABIP performance (which has no obvious source in the development report), his strikeout rate has been gently fading. In addition, one wonders how long his newfound glove work will stick. Does a trick an older dog learns stay in the toolbox as long as one that a puppy pulls off? We would guess not. And now comes the question of arbitration, in which league pundits suggest he will make north of $6 million. And, well, the organization has some interesting prospects down in the minors, none of them appear to be ready to take the role in 2063.
What's a GM to do?
Summary: Deep BABIP regression from last year
- - -
At 24, he posted a solid year--a year that, by WAR,--was better than last, but also by WAR was not the 3.0 kind of year his 21 and 22-year-old campaigns produced. His bat progressed, but his glove, somewhat unfathomably, regressed to essentially replacement level (-1.3 ZR, 1.003 EFF).
Here are his offensive numbers:
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 23 | 132 | 505 | 8 | 30 | 106 | 0.312 | 0.257 | 0.302 | 0.376 | 88 | 87 | 1.2 |
| 2062 | 24 | 147 | 578 | 11 | 27 | 114 | 0.318 | 0.268 | 0.303 | 0.408 | 91 | 91 | 1.7 |
Summary: Stable this year, but still off first two seasons.
- - -
Kata Ishibashi started poorly, but eventually came around a bit. He got the bulk of time at third--102 starts. Defensively, he was above average. Offensively he was, well, if not quite the Hindenburg, at least the Hindenburg's understudy, hitting so poorly at one point that he lost the job to Manuel Martinez (who promptly gave it back).
Here are the numbers. (WARNING: They are enough to make Baby Jesus's eyes bleed while absorbing them).
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 27 | 141 | 487 | 36 | 49 | 91 | 0.264 | 0.269 | 0.336 | 0.517 | 133 | 137 | 3.7 |
| 2062 | 28 | 119 | 394 | 17 | 37 | 66 | 0.254 | 0.244 | 0.307 | 0.391 | 88 | 90 | 1.4 |
The Home Run rate crashed by nearly 50% (.74/AB to .43/AB). BABIP fell off ten points. Batting average 25 points, OBP 29 points, slugging a whopping 129 points. Add it up, and you just watched a guy who posted 133 OPS+ in 2061 drop to 88. With numbers like that you'd better be able to play centerfield if you want a BBA job. (voice over: Ishibashi cannot play centerfield).
If there is a "positive" piece to this, though, it's that looking at Ishibashi's development reports during this time gives some insight as to why. The 28-year-old seems to have developed a serious allergy to baseball skills. In the past season he's lost AVK, Eye, and Contact Potential, and had his gap Potential toggle down and up again. He's had similar reactions on the raw ratings side.
In other words, one suspects Kata Ishibashi's career may be on life support as we speak. The Club still has veteran Run-ming Gui and still-youngish Martinez to play the position, and with Ishibashi's arbitration figure sitting at $2.8M, one has to question if the GM might be better able to save his own job by letting Ishibashi run free in the pasture. Maybe a GBC team could use him.
Just to check in, though, here are Gui's numbers year over year:
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 33 | 123 | 390 | 23 | 25 | 66 | 0.269 | 0.267 | 0.315 | 0.479 | 117 | 115 | 1 |
| 2062 | 34 | 84 | 203 | 16 | 16 | 36 | 0.232 | 0.251 | 0.305 | 0.517 | 117 | 118 | 1.3 |
| Year | Age | G | AB | HR | BB | K | BABP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2061 | 26 | 76 | 244 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 0.33 | 0.324 | 0.358 | 0.516 | 140 | 145 | 1.5 |
| 2062 | 27 | 106 | 371 | 11 | 28 | 58 | 0.298 | 0.272 | 0.323 | 0.45 | 107 | 107 | 0.9 |
With manager Kate Fiscus working to find proper usage, Gui benefited from a limited playing time. His BABIP dropped, but he's never been a hit it and run kind of guy, and the power numbers were well up on a rate basis. Overall he was a good guy to have around.
Martinez had a fair year, too, but only fair. More had been expected of him, and at the end of the day, when he was handed the job fulltime he fell on his face. One suspects Martinez will be given pole position to win the job next year, but the casual observer has to acknowledge the uncertainty that surrounds him.
Summary: Ishibashi may have hit himself out of baseball, and Martinez had a regression. No one thinks Run-ming Gui is an everyday 3B anymore.
- - -
The final analysis has to say that the Bikini infield, which has been pretty stable for the past four or five seasons, appears to be in a state where a transition is needed. The question is whether the club sees that firmly enough, and (assuming they do) what the transition will consist of. The minor leagues can probably help at first base. Second and third are not quite so ready. If one of the young shortstops were to make a big jump in the off-season, one could see them ready at second (or even pushing Williams over), but that's a longshot.
Despite the lack of clarity on the crystal ball, though, a transition seems to be needed.
Did we mention finances are tight?
