61.090 Prospect Watch Center Field

[RonCo]

Off Topic

2061 Season Snapshot


A couple seasons back we took a big first-round swing with Fernando Bushey, and though the kid is playing in the majors it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to know that it didn't work out as we had wanted. I mean, 4th or 5th outfielder was not the assignment. This leaves Mike Cox patrolling the position for at least another year, we would think. Or at least half the year.

The issue here is that we don't have any superstar-type guys in the pipeline, though as you'll soon read I'm quite happy with our top guy, and expect he'll be the guy to step into Cox's shoes, whether it be 2062 or 2063. We do have a couple of intriguing guys, though, and maybe with some loving care we might see one or more do a little popping.

So, let's take a look at them, shall we?


#1 Ramon Sanz

Ramon Sanz (CF)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: AA	18	35/50	5/6	5/6	5/7	7/7	5/6	4/5
Age: 18	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	3	3	6	2	8	8	7
Height: 6'2"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 180	*	8	8	7	8	1	1	1
Source: DR61.1

I just like Ramon Sanz. I was happy to see him available to us in the middle of last year's first round. He's not a classic guy in center, but I think he can pull the position off. Gives me vibes of a guy named Gary Redus in the MLB. Not outstanding anywhere, but good enough at everything to be a solid weapon. At 18 he stepped out of college and dropped 3.1 WAR on AA pitchers, with 16 doubles, 10 homers, and a .275/.340/.441 slash. On top of that, add in 7 steals in 9 attempts.

2062 Projection: AAA, here we come. Perhaps even a September callup.


#2 Freddy Hernandez

Freddy Hernandez (CF)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: A	23	20/40	3/5	4/5	2/6	5/6	4/6	2/4
Age: 23	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: S/R	*	4	3	6	3	8	6	7
Height: 5'10"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 160	*	7	8	9	7	1	1	1
Source: Disc

The game seems to be a little down on Freddy Hernandez, and I guess I can see why. As a center fielder his "8" range makes him a problematic tweener. If those secondary ratings were eights and nines, I'd be a lot happier. Duh. But his offensive profile is interesting enough. He's a switch hitter who looks like he might be a touch better from the left side of the plate, and who has shown a little bit of power though that power has not translated onto the field yet. He runs well, too.

As a scouting discovery this growth rate has been very slow, but very steady. I started in last year at Abel for the first two months of the season, and he struggled mightily. Sending him back too Short A got him on the right track, So that when he finished back up in Lake City A Ball, he seemed more comfortable. So right now I'm thinking that Freddy Hernandez is probably going to play in the major leagues someday, though that role may be as a 4th or 5th outfielder.

2062 Projection: Start in Lake City, end in Kamloops.


#3 Sean Crowe

Sean Crowe (CF)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: SA	18	20/45	3/6	2/6	3/5	5/8	5/6	4/5
Age: 18	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	5	3	3	3	8	4	5
Height: 6'4"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 170	*	6	8	8	6	1	1	1
Source: DR61.3

Sean Crowe's bat and his raw 6'4" athleticism Really should be enough to make him the number two guy on this list. But the fact is that the words he carries with his glove, that "for" error rating, and "5" outfield arm would, today, disqualify him from playing the center field role. Percentages say that Crowe's future today appears to be in left field. Not that we're counting him out though.

We may have done him a bit of a raw deal by having him spend his 18 year old season in short a Port-au-Prince. His numbers were not the best. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with him next though, because even with ugly numbers in limited time he has managed to keep those ratings looking interesting.

2062 Projection: Another full season in Short A seems to be on the docket, but I admit I'm considering dropping him down to Rookie ball if that makes more sense. I think he needs to have a successful season under his belt.


#4 Andha Malti

Andha Malti (CF)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: A	23	20/40	3/5	3/5	4/5	3/6	3/4	3/5
Age: 23	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	5	4	5	3	8	7	6
Height: 6'1"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 170	*	6	8	6	6	1	1	1
Source: Disc

Fun fact about Andha Malti: when I dictated his name to the Word feature, it translated it to "And her melting." I'm not sure what that means, but it got my attention. Anyway, Malti is another scouting discovery who entered Rookie ball at a young age. Tell me when you've heard this before, but that means his development path has been slow tenuous. This was his second year at the a level, and while his .220/.296/.294 Slash line is nothing to write home about, his six double s 3 homers and 17 stolen bases, together with a respectable enough glove resulted in a 1.0 WAR. Solid enough for the moment I guess.

He's still 23, and a bump or two in a couple of places would make a big difference for him. Right now, like Hernandez, if he can manage to grow into those ratings over the next couple of years I could see him having a nice three to five season career as a Minimum salary utility outfielder who shines as a defensive replacement in the corners. Truth though is that whatever happens in 2062 will probably go a long way toward defining whether that ever happens.

2062 Projection: I expect we'll start him in Lake City A Ball again, and hope he earns a promotion up to kamloops by mid year.



#5 Tomas Ramos

Tomas Ramos (CF)	Age	OVR	CON	BABIP	AvK	GAP	POW	EYE
Level: SA	21	20/45	3/5	3/5	3/6	2/4	3/5	4/7
Age: 21	*	IFR	IFE	IFA	TDP	OFR	OFE	OFA
Bats-Throws: R/R	*	6	5	6	5	8	5	7
Height: 6'0"	*	SPD	AGR	STE	RUN	CBK	CFR	CAR
Weight: 170	*	2	4	3	1	1	1	1
Source: Disc

Ramos had a decent enough season in 2060 that I considered starting him at Short A Port-au-Prince, But like every scouting discovery that I've brought into rookie ball early, repeat after me, his raw ratings were quite slow to come up. So I gave him one more season in Ogden in seeing with the assignment of posting some numbers and working to get those ratings up. I'd say he passed well enough (8 HR, .292/.320/.499), well enough anyway to get the last week and 1/2 of the year in at short A.

I think he needs another bump or two, though they could be small, to become a serious candidate as a BBA starter in center field. However, I should note that he first came across my radar screen as a member of the international complex because he bumped several times to get where he is now.. He's got solid and tangibles. I like him. If he does manage to work out, he's going to be one of those players that I remember fondly for years afterwards.

2062 Projection: If Ramos bumps during spring training, I could see him playing at Lake City A ball next year. Otherwise it will be Port-au-Prince.

[BaseClogger]

Bushey had one of the more topsy-turvy developmental paths I’ve ever seen. Remember when he had 9 range??

[BaseClogger]

I think Crowe is a much better prospect than Hernandez but this might be the correct order simply because it’s the center field list.

[RonCo]

Bushey had one of the more topsy-turvy developmental paths I’ve ever seen. Remember when he had 9 range??

Why, yes I do.

[RonCo]

I think Crowe is a much better prospect than Hernandez but this might be the correct order simply because it’s the center field list.

Crowe is certainly a better offensive prospect, but I can't see him playing CF right now unless he gets a serious bump or three.

[BaseClogger]

I don’t put much stock in outfield error rating.

[RonCo]

I should pull some data on that. Or have you already done so?

[BaseClogger]

I should pull some data on that. Or have you already done so?

It’s more anecdotal and consistent with what Lane posted about third baseman. Outfielders are gonna range from 0 to 8ish errors per season. In large samples there’s going to be a strong correlation between the rating and errors, but at the individual player level it’s quite random. Tommy Harrison now has 7 errors for me this year and he’s got good ratings. And it takes many errors to make up a decent sized gap in runs created from a better offensive player.

[ae37jr]

I'm with Kurt on this. I rate errors a distant 3rd for outfielders. I look at outfield assists/errors as +/- cause you are turning an opportunity into an out... or not. So those two go hand in hand. In a vacuum (not bringing range into the equation), Does my outfielder throw out more runners that he let's balls drop? You can even argue that outfield assists are more important because you are always throwing out a runner at 2nd, 3rd, or home while an error you are giving up first or second. But that depends on how many many runners are on base too.

Range is harder to rank. I can't say for sure that a high range Outfielder who makes a lot of errors makes more plays than a low range solid glove. But I assume they do. I'd rather have a shot at making a play then not. So range is #1 for me.

[Krathan]

This turned into an interesting discussion about OF defense ratings. I have a ton of guys with low arm ratings but I also have a couple with low error ratings that I hope doesn’t make for a huge negative impact.