2057.02: Bears' GM Has Poor Track Record in Draft

[BaseClogger]

10/14/2056


As I look back at my lack of success in the BBA I've pinpointed two main causes: a lack of production from the draft and an unwillingness to churn my roster. I haven't bothered writing team news posts about my drafts the last couple years despite putting a decent amount of spreadsheet time into making my first 10-12 selections because I'm so disappointed in how things have gone. I'm going to summarize every first round pick I've made since becoming San Fernando's GM in hopes another GM can help me sort out my drafting flaw(s).


2051
11th - P Alejandro Mendoza

Oof, it really stung when I released Alejandro a couple years ago. Mendoza was a 8-8-7 pitcher when I drafted him. Today a free agent, the scouts rate him at 7-7-4. There was always a risk he would become a reliever thanks to his three pitch mix, but at one time his off-speed stuff had a higher ceiling. He looked good enough early on before hitting the dreaded AA wall. His production rebounded when he repeated AA as a 22 year-old and his Stuff potential even got up to 9 at one point, but by the time he was in AAA he was just trying to hold on to a bullpen job.

2052
7th - P Alexander Swanson

Alexander Swanson is my only first round pick thus far to reach the BBA and indeed is the best pick I've made. He's basically the same pitcher I drafted, still holding an 8-8-8 pitching rating base. He's always been extremely durable and had a high floor thanks to his six pitch mix. He peaked as the #26 overall prospect with 8-9-9 ratings potential. Now 25 years old, there might still be a little upside but his most likely outcome looks like mid-rotation starter. He's already got 7.1 WAR across 436 big league innings and a 4.32 ERA which is pretty good in my home ballpark. Here's to hoping one of his off-speed pitches can bump a bit and he can take the jump to being a top of the rotation guy.

2053
10th - 3B José Pérez
38th - CF Marcos Pepper

After taking a couple of pitchers in the prior two years and noticing my org had become pitching-heavy thanks to inheriting first round picks Perry Wallace and Morris Chapa (who look like bottom-of-the-rotation guys at best and make the lack of recent first round production even more glaring) I decided to focus on hitters. I remember liking Perez because he had the most power of any player who wasn't a corner outfielder or 1B. I had a preference at this time for high schoolers because they are so young when they get drafted in this league (as an aside, since then I've seen enough college players bump that I no longer hold this preference, particularly at the top of the draft). Perez's glove hasn't improved so it's still unclear whether he can stick at the hot corner. He's also lumped a point of Contact. His production's been limited--he's never been a bad player but he's never been one of the better players at his level either. I'm still undecided whether he repeats A as a 21 year-old or moves on to AA. Regardless, he's got to improve his Avoid Ks rating.

I don't remember what drew me to Pepper. He's such a tweener I really don't like his game at this point. It doesn't help he's lumped a point of Contact and a point of Eye. On the bright side, he's a fan favorite who put up a 900 OPS at AA as a teenager. Hopefully a bump in the spring follows from that production.

2054
13th - 2B Frank Jardine
Jardine's draft stock was tricky because nobody knew what position he'd end up playing. I was kind of obsessed with positional flexibility at the time and could picture him at 2B or any of the outfield positions. In his post-draft analysis, Aaron wasn't in love with Frank's upside and saw him as a long-term utility man. Not what I was hoping to read about my pick in the top half of the first round. But Aaron looks correct, with Jardine lumping a point in both Contact and Eye while not having much room to grow anywhere else. He found some success in the lowest level of the minors but was sub-replacement level in A ball in 2056. My hope is he can turn things around repeating that level as a 19 year-old. The lack of a hit tool does make him look like a future bench player but at least there's time.

2055
7th - P Javier Duarte

Aaron's post-draft analysis identified Duarte as potentially a reliever which is never what you want to read about the seventh overall pick in the draft. But I'm actually optimistic about Duarte. He's been really good in both R and SA ball as a young teenager and perhaps most importantly stayed healthy. He lumped a bit in his first season but is now back to the ratings that got him drafted so highly. There's still room to grow both in his base ratings and his pitch ratings.

2056
9th - SS Kensaku Kato
35th - CF Lorenz Spee

Kato and Spee represent another shift in strategy as I focused on players who are mostly developed. Everybody seems to be looking for a SS and Kato was the closest thing to a real one in the 2056 class. He hit and fielded well across A and AA in 2056 but didn't do anything to shake the notion his upside might be limited. Kato's Eye even lumped a point. Spee's season was similar but without any lumps to his primary ratings or a AA promotion.

[Jwalk100]

Swanson has a nice pitch mix.

I would keep Jardine in the OF.

Duarte is young. just give him some time.

Kato has played the field well at short but his arm gives me pause. He could be a really good fielding 2B.

*These opinions are the opinions of an idiot.

[BaseClogger]

Oof. Kato just lumped down to 8 infield range. What a bummer.

[Dington]

I might've screwed up Swanson and converted him to a RP, but he's done well in the rotation.

[BaseClogger]

I might've screwed up Swanson and converted him to a RP, but he's done well in the rotation.

He's my ideal prototypical pitcher: well rounded ratings that get groundballs, throws strikes, and keeps the ball in the yard.