2021.9: Crystal Ball for 2022 - The Bullpen

[Rubaboo]

2021 saw Omaha's bullpen, with a few notable exceptions, stink up the joint. The general weakness of the group as a whole coupled with the fact that my pitchers were all on pitch counts around 95 really made my bullpen look bad in 2021. The 4.29 ERA that they threw up was good enough for 9th in the JL, ahead of Halifax (4.42), Huntsville (4.53), and Yellow Springs (5.20). Let's take a look at the 2021 staff:

CL - Wayne Williams (1-8, 27 SV, 4.70 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 89 K, 43 BB, 67.0 IP)

SU - Jorge Soto (5-4, 10 SV, 2.91 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 119 K, 33 BB, 102.0 IP)

MR - Rafael Castro (4-2, 4 SV, 2.82 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 67 K, 30 BB, 70.1 IP)

MR - Luis Ramirez (5-2, 3 SV, 4.45 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 71 K, 40 BB, 64.2 IP)

MR - Domingo Gonzalez (0-6, 1 SV, 4.82 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 35 K, 15 BB, 52.1 IP)

MR - Charlie Prince (0-1, 3 SV, 4.91 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 21 K, 7 BB, 25.2 IP)

MR - Lynn Stanley (1-0, 0 SV, 7.11 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 21 K, 10 BB, 25.1 IP)

MR - Tom Madonald (0-0, 1 SV, 5.32 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 14 K, 7 BB, 23.2 IP)

There were also a few guys that were up and down from AAA throughout the season (Evan Hansen and Parker Morris being the most noteworthy of these) but the main group stayed the same. Williams is kind of a loose cannon on the mound. Great Stuff and Movement, but the 3 control is always gonna be a problem for him out there. I doubt he sees any more time as a ML closer in Omaha. Soto was great out of the bullpen in 2021 after struggling as a starter in 2020. He ate a ton of innings and pitched above expectations. If he doesn't come crashing back down next season, I expect that he'll spend most of it at the back of the pen. Castro started 2021 in AAA but was called up when Parker Morris was sent down and never looked back. Logged big innings and did well. If not for that split he'd be a shoo-in for the closer role next season. Maybe he'll get it anyways... Luis Ramirez put up pretty forgettable numbers, before I put him in the rotation in September that is. I think his true numbers fit somewhere between his 4.45 reliever ERA and his 1.19 ERA in the rotation. Domingo Gonzalez spent the whole season in Omaha because, well, why not? He struggled like you would expect a guy with 5 control to struggle. I don't think he'll start 2022 with the ML club, he'll probably find himself starting for AAA Halifax. Oh, Charlie Price, you make me a sad panda... One of the main 'gets' in the deal that sent Stuart Pearce to Greenville, he promply lumped enough to find himself relegated to the pen. He is a definite reliever conversion candidate this offseason. Lynn Stanley is another victim of the lump monster. 2 years ago he was a great closer in his rookie campaign. This season a 7.11 ERA and steadily decreasing stuff and control ratings has me toying with the idea of not offering arbitration. Tom Madonald was only on the ML club all season because I was terrified that if I DFA'd him and he refused a minor league assignment I would have to pay out his 2 vesting options. He actually pitched ok in limited work, but now I will be rid of his albatross contract. Evan Hansen pitched better than expected in a small sample. If he can keep his shit together early next season, he will probably find himself a role in the ML pen. Parker Morris had a great season in 2020, but struggled to start 2021 and spent most of the season in AAA. Hopefully he can develop his control and make a run at the closer role in 2022.

Current projected bullpen for 2022:

CL - ?

Seriously, I have no idea right now. I would probably pencil in Jorge Soto right now just because of the success he had this season, but I have a number of guys that a reliever conversion would look great on that could fill this role. Do I use it on the aforementioned Charlie Prince? Has Julio Ortiz finally levelled his ratings out a bit to the point where I could convert him and trust he'd be around for awhile? Can Wayne Williams pitch well enough to deserve to be there? What about Hector Leyva and his million pitches? It will be an interesting offseason while I try to figure this out.

SU - Jorge Soto - If he's not the closer, I would suspect that Soto will snuggle up in one of my setup spots and hang there all season.

SU - Rafael Castro - If I go with 2 setup guys, Castro will occupy the other spot. If not, he'll be a high-use MR.

MR - Charlie Prince - He'll have a spot whether I use the conversion on him or not I would think.

MR - Luis Ramirez - I don't trust his 1.19 ERA as a starter at the end of the season, but I dont trust his 4.45 ERA as a reliever either. The 4 control is less than I like, but he'll get a shot here.

MR -Wayne Williams - I would say that he gets a spot here mostly because of the general weakness of the rest of the group. He's a strikeout machine, the real question is whether he'll control his walks enough to be better than the AAAA player he looks like.

MR - ?
The last spot is pretty up for grabs. Here's who's in the mix:

Evan Hansen - Probably the front runner as things stand right now. He's a lefty which is a plus and pitched well in limied work for the big club in 2021.

Parker Morris - If he looks like he has his shit together in spring training, I'll probably have to make a spot for him. Hopefully he can develop his control and take the debate out of it.

Julio Ortiz - Even without a conversion he looks like a solid LOOGY at worst. He might be waiting for Hansen to show some weakness next season.

Angel Luna - Doesn't throw as hard as I'd like him to, but has good stamina. Has an outside chance, but chances are he'll be at AAA in 2022.

Tony Marrero - I would anticipate that he will get another full season starting in AAA so he can realize his full potential and at least be injury coverage for the ML rotation. If he completely freezes his development and is what he is, he has potential as a reliever conversion.

Alan Dominguez - He'll have to be on the 40-man because he's Rule V eligible, but unless he develops like crazy this offseason I don't see him cracking the ML squad. He'll be the full-time closer for AAA Halifax in 2022 after starting 2021 in AA.

So there it is. My bullpen is a bit of a mess at the moment. Many guys that have a shot with no really strong, established front runners. Chances are I'll be looking to improve on this during the offseason either through FA or by working a deal of some sorts, but everyone needs closers so they typically aren't cheap. Should be an interesting project. My rotation is a strength, and uncapping the starters should help take some of the stress off the bullpen in 2022 and allow the group as a whole to perform better.