Black Sox Beat Writer
Chicago Sports Online
With the start of the BBA playoffs looming, it’s only fitting to take a quick look at Chicago’s prospects against their opening round opponents, the Hawaii Tropics.
And they are … um … not especially promising.
At the 30,000-foot level, the series appears to be a classic tale of offense vs. defense: Hawaii ranked no worse than third in the Frick League for most key offensive statistics: 1st in hits, 2nd in runs, 1st in slugging pct., 3rd in OBP.
On the flip side, Chicago ranked near the top of the league in most key pitching metrics: 3rd in overall ERA, 2nd in starters’ ERA, 4th in bullpen ERA, 3rd in overall runs allowed.
Where things come apart for the Sox, though, is how their offense matches up to Hawaii’s pitching. Chicago’s offense can barely be detected outside of pristine laboratory conditions. The Sox rank 14th (of 16 teams) for runs scored, 10th for OBP, 12th for slugging, and 11th for hits.
The Tropics pitching, while not elite, is perfectly solid: 6th in overall ERA, 4th for starters’ ERA, 10th for bullpen ERA, and 6th for overall runs allowed.
In other words, even if Chicago pitching can hold Hawaii scoring marginally in check, the Sox figure to struggle mightily to score against Hawaii’s pitching staff.
The regular season series between the two teams holds little comfort for Sox fans, either. Hawaii was 4-2, scoring 35 runs (5.8 per game) to Chicago’s 32 runs (5.3), and played as well in Chicago (2-1) as they did at home (2-1).
A quick glance at the various squads, too, gives Hawaii an edge in most: the starting rotations are pretty much a wash. Although Hawaii ace Alaric Wullenweber is a notch or two better than Chicago ace Amayas Moelling, the Sox have a little more depth in the middle and back end of the rotation.
The Sox do have an edge in the bullpen, but it’s not particularly pronounced. Closer Gilberto Sosa (3.21 ERA/2.25 FIP/39 saves) and Setup ace Gilberto Cordero (1.77 ERA/2.40 FIP/2 saves) give the Sox a formidable back end, but Tropics closer Norm McConnell (3.06 ERA/3.89 FIP/32 saves) isn’t anyone to trifle with.
Ernest McBride
Chicago relies heavily on platoon play and count on 3B Tomás Duran (.308/.368/.529); (OF) José Figueroa (.314/.356/.519) and 1B Robby Clements (.303/.338/.505) to carry much of the offensive load.
So, how does this all shake out?
Granted, the playoffs are a fickle beast and anything can happen in a short series, but we have a hard time figuring out how Chicago breaks through against the Trops.
Our guess? Hawaii takes the best-of-five series 3 games to 1.
Sorry about that, Sox fans. Next year may be better!
