Louisville Top Prospects Report - end of 2001

[robster49]

By Josh Raleigh, unofficial blogger of the Sluggers

1. Alberto "Dr. Focus" Rivera, age 24, 1B (#22 MBBA) - The top pick of the 1999 draft out of college, he famously failed to sign with Long Beach. Rivera sat out a season and was then selected 3rd overall by Louisville in the 2000 draft with hopes he would be a premier middle of the order bat. He began the season ranked as the #3 prospect in the MBBA and slid down prospect boards given his poor season at single A Ocala; in which he hit just .226 with 10 HR. Scouts are still very high on Rivera and Louisville has to be hoping for some advancement this season from the prize of their system.

2. Nathan Campbell, age 23, RP (#28 MBBA) - The heir apparent to the closer position in Louisville. Taken as the #3 overall pick this year by Louisville, he showed why in a brief preview for Rookie league Slippery Rock where he saved 16 games in 19 chances and K'd over 10 per 9 innings. If he can harness his stuff and control, he should rocket through the system and may appear in Louisville in 2002.

3. Cesar "Commie Child" Vega, age 23, 1B (#72 MBBA) - The Cuban from Virginia, he's moved steadily up the ladder since being an unheralded 7th rounder in 1997. He hit 24 homers for Missouri last season and could crack the big club with a good showing in the preseason. He projects as a solid everyday player, possibly as soon as this year, especially if he can cut down on the K's. His future is unknown with Rivera looming at 1B but he controls his own destiny since he is farther along at this stage in his development.

4. Carlos Martinez, age 24, SP (#82 MBBA) - Acquired from Des Moines last offseason as part of the Kenare Sobah deal, he proved to be healthy following major arm surgery. He posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and nearly a K per 9 for Double A Alabama. He also showed great command and projects as a middle rotation starter. Martinez could crack the rotation this season for a Louisville team in desperate need of pitching help.

5. Will Dawson, age 22, SP (#85 MBBA) - The round 2 pick in 2000, Dawson fared better on his second tour through Rookie Level Slippery Rock. Will improved across the board with a 3.32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and could reach the big club in late 2003 if he continues his to improve. Likely a solid back of the rotation arm.

[salas]

Was most hopeful about Martinez and Dawson. They should be good, but the waiting sux!

[blake]

Why are the development and aging modifiers so out of sync with real life? Is there a backstory to that? It seems like there are a lot of prospects that just dont develop. I dont understand the theory behind 27, 28 year old rookies that play until theyre 37, 38. Thats how it seems the league is set up.

[Al-Hoot]

Why are the development and aging modifiers so out of sync with real life? Is there a backstory to that? It seems like there are a lot of prospects that just dont develop. I dont understand the theory behind 27, 28 year old rookies that play until theyre 37, 38. Thats how it seems the league is set up.

I'm curious about that also.

[recte44]

Dont know. Never noticed it before....some players are late developers and given the lack of stats behind this claim I will assume it is perception and not reality.

[blake]

Dont know. Never noticed it before....some players are late developers and given the lack of stats behind this claim I will assume it is perception and not reality.

According to this http://baseballretrospective.com/MBBA/p ... =19&t=6#p6 the aging speeds are at .920 and development speeds are at .970.

I have to readjust because normally theyre ML ready at 24 and start dropping off at 34. With these settings it looks like theyre ML ready about 26 and start tailing off maybe about 38. It makes prime years totally different too.

I think it's important all the new GM's are aware of the settings because it impacts a lot of aspects about the player. Normally nobody would touch a 31 year old but with these settings a 31 year old is in his prime.

[blake]

And honestly, Im fairly new to this league too and have been wondering what the general trend is myself. Do they tend to be rookies at 26 and peak between 28-32? Do they normally start to tail off at 36? In real life they generally come in at 23-24, peak between 26-30, and then start to tail off after 30. By 34, 35, they are usually done.

[Al-Hoot]

Dont know. Never noticed it before....some players are late developers and given the lack of stats behind this claim I will assume it is perception and not reality.

According to this http://baseballretrospective.com/MBBA/p ... =19&t=6#p6 the aging speeds are at .920 and development speeds are at .970.

I have to readjust because normally theyre ML ready at 24 and start dropping off at 34. With these settings it looks like theyre ML ready about 26 and start tailing off maybe about 38. It makes prime years totally different too.

I think it's important all the new GM's are aware of the settings because it impacts a lot of aspects about the player. Normally nobody would touch a 31 year old but with these settings a 31 year old is in his prime.

I read the league settings on that page, but I never noticed those two important ones that Blake has mentioned. And Blake brings up some good points, great points.

On the other hand, even Matt has said that the league settings in that thread need to be updated. Which leads one to ask: which ones? I think a post just telling us which settings are different from the screen shots would be fairly easy to do. For instance, are players potential ranked by position or by across all players regardless of position. I have heard Aaron say he thought a change had been made to by position, but that is not what that league settings page says.

[jcrmoon42]

Dr. Focus is a jerk! In Long Beach, we refer to him as "Dr. F-U".