Brains! 2062.6: A Look Ahead To Next Year

[aaronweiner]

The Jacksonville Zombies may have wiped out a lot of the negativity surrounding the season with a September surge that made their season look respectable, but there were a lot of bizarre happenings during the season which leave the Jacksonville front office scratching their heads.

(Note: this is not just alarming because of the post-apocalyptic super-lice which causes extreme redness on the scalp and can often be mistaken for individuals turning, since head itching is also a symptom of mutated Ophiocordyceps unilateralis, thought to be the source for the country's zombies.)

For example, Jacksonville famously led the league in walks this year, which has been a team hallmark for seasons, but also finished second in the league in home runs, their highest finish there in a long, long time. Teams that lead the league in both categories tend to be very successful offensively, but the team tied for a very pedestrian sixth in offense, not nearly enough to overcome a mediocre showing by the pitching staff.

"We set our team up to Moneyball it up, and instead we fouled it up," said hitting coach Sixto Gutierrez. "We have such great ballplayers, and it's so strange."

The biggest problems this year were not expected to be problems at all, based on their 2061 performance. Majd bin Nawaf had been an absolute superstar in the second half of last year after coming over from Yellow Springs, started the year off well, and then just fell off a cliff: Nawaf hit .191 in June and .186 in August, leading to the second lowest batting average of his career. Even a return to close to his .275 career average would push him back into the 3+ WAR range, as his walk rate remained steady, which is why, along with his large salary, his job is safe.

However, Don Colbert, about whom much angst has been spent this year, might be in danger of losing his job. There are internal talks about moving Pepe Aragon to shortstop, Iso Takimoto to third base, and pushing Don Colbert to the bench. Colbert is statistically the worst defensive shortstop in the BBA, so his calling card was his bat up until this year - and so there is a pretty good case for taking Colbert, who was also amongst the most unproductive hitters in the BBA in 2062, out of the lineup.

Just removing Colbert's numbers with a slightly below-average batter would have moved Jacksonville up four spots in the batting average race, and scouts say that it's possible nobody else with his contact skills makes such poor contact out of the box in the BBA. Still, Colbert is two years removed from a 3 WAR season and just one year removed from winning a Golden Bat, so he has defenders in the front office, especially since he is due a guaranteed $7 million over the next two years.

"Obviously Donny was a real letdown this year," said Gutierrez. "Majd, too. We really don't know what happened there; both guys were hitting the ball the same way they always were, but it just wouldn't land in play. We think they're still good ballplayers."

Most of the rest of the team lived up to expectations, however. Gabe Manuel was straight up outstanding, and the comparisons to Dave Ackerman appear somewhat apt, though Manuel will never have Ackerman's glove. Steve Holcombe was almost as good as his breakout 2060 season, Aragon fell off a little but was still highly productive, Big Papi hit .301, and Roy O'Donnell continued his consistency at catcher.

"A little better luck would go a long way next year," said Gutierrez. "We might do a few things differently, though, so stay tuned."

The pitching staff, on the other hand, is about to go through massive upheaval. The traded Bob Anderson was supposed to be the stability of the staff, but that will fall to 27 year old Dan Voelzke, who had by far his best BBA season this year. Questions after Voelzke, especially because the team has a number of free agents.

Gavrilovich Mastinsky was released this offseason, as the starter had thrown a total of 200 innings over the past two years and the team felt he was a drag on the salary cap. The five-man rotation at this point looks like some combination a re-signed 39 year old Takehide Gertrudes, impressive rookie Mahilai Manaalii, and then question marks abound. Gilberto Trevino? Cheslav Evgrafov can't possibly be counted on for more than 100 innings. Dave Hill? This is to say nothing at all of the bullpen, which will be basically reduced to um, nothing at all, since right now there are three pitchers in there, one of them is Efgrafov, and there's no way Hill survives a roster cutdown in 2064.

Jacksonville does have a number of rising bullpen prospects that could see action next year. The team has Luc Cervini, Jim Baker, Pedro Fenton, and Antonio Sepulveda. Fenton is not yet on the 40-man roster, so it is probable that we will see him in 2064, but the rest of them are or will soon be. That could be the steady-state Jacksonville pen for several years. What's the plan here?

"We have a lot of thoughts about this, but a few things we're pretty sure about: we'd like to make sure there's a spot for Tony Gallegos at some point next year," said GM Aaron Weiner.
"We're going to let (last year's first round picks) Victor Braden and Juan Fernandez get a little AAA exposure before bringing them up. The staff we start the year with is very unlikely to be the one we end the year using."

It's also important to keep in mind that 2064 will be a significant transition year for the team. Aragon and Voelzke will almost surely be priority extensions after this season, but it remains to be seen what kind of contracts they will be given; there is a lot of sentiment in the front office to frontload their deals to take advantage of cheaper player salaries and easily removable salary cap in 2064: Husam, Jensen, Colbert, Efgrafov, and O'Donnell are all in contract years, Randolph Clarke could be cut, Dave Hill will be gone, and players like Hamdan Nuh and Juan Orquiz are unlikely to get arbitration.

Along with the unlikelihood of Manuel and Takimoto being super 2s, Jacksonville could make an absurdly large total of $60 million in cap space for extensions in 2064 ($80 million if they bought out Big Papi), most of which would probably go to Aragon and Voelzke. As a result, Jacksonville is unlikely to sign too many free agents past the 2063 season. Which means we could be looking at not one, but maybe two rebuilding years for the Zombies.

"Rebuilding is what we do best after the bomb," said Weiner. "We're hoping that a lot of our moves work out well enough that it doesn't feel like a second bomb."


[attachment=0]zombiants.JPG[/attachment]
(below) Zombie ants with Ophiocordyceps unilateralis.

[Jwalk100]

I thought this was a 91-win team. Just an off season I guess.

[aaronweiner]

I thought this was a 91-win team. Just an off season I guess.

It was better than it played, but that's a bad excuse. It might have meant that I overevaluated some players.

Time for some changes.

[aaronweiner]

Also I am deeply ashamed that I had no idea that "The Last Of Us" had already borrowed this fungus for their show.

I really need to keep up with current zombie trends.

[RonCo]

I really need to keep up with current zombie trends.

Don't we all.

[Trebro]

You definitely had some rough luck.

I cannot believe Gertrudes is still a very solid #5 starter. Good for him!