Braves/Upton and The Art of Saying Nothing

[cheekimonk]

First, anyone got a firm grasp on what a "qualifying offer" is in MLB? It's not in this article, but I swear I heard that ATL put in a $13.8 mil "qualifying offer" in front of Bourn. I thought that was the required offer to get FA compensation but later realized Bourn's deal is up so there is no arbitration. Anywho...

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blo ... f-options/

It really is a hot market for CFs this offseason. I could live with Upton...the Braves do NOT need another .250 hitter, but they do need a right-handed power bat (Heyward, Freeman, McCann...all lefties) and Upton is a slight upgrade defensively. But my biggest frustration with Braves' offenses is that the FO has never seemed to really value solid lead off hitters (although they say if it's Upton they'll look for a lead off man for LF with Prado taking Chipper's place at 3rd). I don't think Fredi Gonzalez is as high on Hamilton as Wren is, but Wren could be bluffing, too. Frankly, I would be just fine with Angel Pagan or Dexter Fowler in a trade with the Rockies.

Finally, a great example in the article of a GM in the offseason moving his lips and saying absolutely nothing:

"We like [Upton],” Wren said Monday. “But this time of year you’ve got a lot of lines in the water. You’re not sure which fish you’re going to catch. So you have to make sure that you have enough lines out there that you catch a fish. And we’re very much in that mode. We’re checking. We’re involved on just about everything, every center fielder that we like.”

Don't know how other GMs are, but every year Frankie reminds me that I do not love baseball enough to be a beat writer (or maybe I love it too much). That honestly would have gotten a, "Really? Really, Frank? You know I have to be here, right?"


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[felipe]

I dunno about Pagan - to me he's unproven - someone is gonna end up overpaying for him

And Wren can't really say too much - if he likes a guy a lot and says so - that drives up that guys value, and also makes the other candidates feel slighted - I never thought I'd say this - but theres too much sports coverage!

[agrudez]

A QO is the new mechanism for FA compensation. The team losing the FA has to make a 1 year offer worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball (this year 13.8M) in order to qualify them for FA compensation. IIRC, the Braves made a QO to Bourn and the Rays made one to Upton (so if they sign Upton they'll lose their 1st rounder, but gain a supplemental selection).

As far as Upton goes, I sure hope the Braves sign him! Or, should I say, I sure hope anyone but the Phillies does (last I heard he was their prime target - even broke Jimmy Rollins out to go persuade him). The last thing this team needs to pay top dollar to a guy that struggles to keep his average above the Mendoza line, not to mention Amaro needs to finally learn fiscal responsibility if he is going to keep us from being bottom dwellers in 2015. Of course, now they are talking about signing Hamilton... to play CF! Some people will never learn!

[cheekimonk]

A QO is the new mechanism for FA compensation. The team losing the FA has to make a 1 year offer worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball (this year 13.8M) in order to qualify them for FA compensation. IIRC, the Braves made a QO to Bourn and the Rays made one to Upton (so if they sign Upton they'll lose their 1st rounder, but gain a supplemental selection).

As far as Upton goes, I sure hope the Braves sign him! Or, should I say, I sure hope anyone but the Phillies does (last I heard he was their prime target - even broke Jimmy Rollins out to go persuade him). The last thing this team needs to pay top dollar to a guy that struggles to keep his average above the Mendoza line, not to mention Amaro needs to finally learn fiscal responsibility if he is going to keep us from being bottom dwellers in 2015. Of course, now they are talking about signing Hamilton... to play CF! Some people will never learn!

Do we know Upton = 1st rounder? I would think him a definite Type B. Bourn will certainly bring a 1st rounder, though. The Braves have definitely been on the mark with their decades-long focus on pitching (very bad luck on the Derek Lowe signing...I'll forever be convinced Kenshin Kawakami signing followed at least 3 nights of 8 Balls), but the lack of a bona fide leadoff hitter makes every season 162 nights of a) get on base somehow, b) wait for 2-run HR.

[agrudez]

They did away with the old Type A/B designation. Now every impending FA is compensation eligible - as long as the team sumbits a QO to them as described in my previous post - and the only compensation occurs in the form of a lost 1st round selection (for the signing team - top 10 picks are protected and deferred to 2nd round selection loss) and the addition of a supplemental round selection (for the FA's prior team).

I hear ya about the strategy, btw. The Phillies have been a poor OBP team since '06 (when they started getting good) and have lived and died by the longball - so for awhile they'd either win 10-5 or lose 5-1. Their recent transition of assets to the rotation just so happened to coincide with a regression of their power hitters (and further regression of the already low OBP) so now they either win 3-2 or lose 3-2, haha.