When to rebuild...

[cheekimonk]

ESPN the Mag had a good article in this month's edition about when to blow up a baseball team and start over. Good quote, as Brooklyn Dodgers GM Branch Rickey once said, "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." Here is the link for ESPN Insiders:

Blow it Up: Mariners face a dilemma

For those non-Insiders, I don't want to get sued. So don't tell...

IN THE SPRING OF 2010, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik found himself in the unique situation of having to downplay his own accomplishments. A reporter in Peoria, Ariz., was lauding Zduriencik's off-season moves, implying that he was a genius and that his team was on the rise. Zduriencik was trying to temper expectations. That off-season, the Mariners had signed third baseman Chone Figgins and traded for ace lefthander Cliff Lee, two of the biggest additions to any team that winter, moves that instantly turned the M's into AL West faves. But Zduriencik didn't like the front-runner position. "I thought we'd be competitive if we were healthy," Zduriencik says now. "But I still felt we needed a middle-of-the-order bat."

His worst fears were soon realized. The Mariners struggled throughout the season, finishing last in the majors in home runs and runs scored, ending up in the AL West basement. The embarrassment didn't end there. The legendary Ken Griffey Jr. was reportedly caught sleeping in the clubhouse during a game, Lee was traded to the Rangers in July when it was clear the team was not in position to compete for a playoff spot, and manager Don Wakamatsu was relieved of his duties in August.

Now, a month into the 2011 season, the Mariners again sit in last place with little hope of contending in the near future. Zduriencik knows the best move for the franchise might be trading away superstars Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki. But he also knows the rebuilding process can be perilous, and moving the team's top players could cost him his job if the team is mired at the bottom of the AL West standings for the next few years. How long he will hold off is anyone's guess, but recent history suggests he shouldn't wait long. The M's traded Lee about three weeks before the July 31 deadline last year, and in 2008 the Indians shipped CC Sabathia to the Brewers the first week of July. If a GM thinks a player can put his club over the top, he doesn't want to wait until the stretch run begins to get him. That means a contender may force Zduriencik to move before he's ready to deal.

"You want to give the club every opportunity to be as competitive as it can be, then see where that takes you," he says. "If things begin to fall apart, then you think about bringing up young players. But if you bring up young players, what veterans do you have around them? There's no guarantee new guys will have success. It can be dangerous."

There's plenty of evidence to suggest that waiting also carries risks. As Brooklyn Dodgers GM Branch Rickey once said, "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." Houston GM Ed Wade knows this well. In 2010, the Astros were in a spot similar to the one the Mariners are in now: two popular high-priced players (Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt) and not much else. Even though it was clear the Astros needed an influx of young talent, the team's front office refused to trade the vets despite a string of mediocre seasons. Wade finally relented last summer, sending Berkman to the Yankees and Oswalt to the Phillies. But the prospects Houston received were not as strong as the players it could have acquired a year or two earlier. In Keith Law's preseason organization rankings on ESPN Insider, Houston came in at No. 27. But at least Wade has finally come to grips with the fact that the team won't be winning the World Series anytime soon. "I'm about to use a dirty word," Wade told an audience of fans at a recent luncheon. "The dirty word is 'rebuilding.' People in baseball don't want to hear that word, but in my opinion every team is always rebuilding in some fashion. Because if you're not prepared to take those steps, to be bold and bring in new faces, you run the risk of getting old collectively."

His task was made easier because Oswalt and Berkman expressed a desire to be traded. Wade had been asked to cut payroll, and getting rid of the two high-priced stars was the easiest way to do it. He was also saved the public relations disaster of declining Berkman's $15 million contract option for 2011, which he was poised to do. Without Oswalt and Berkman, the Astros' payroll is down to $77 million after topping out at $103 million in 2009. In an April game against the Mets, Houston's infield was comprised of players making less than $500,000 this season, as were six of seven relievers. The Astros can now put their extra cash toward the draft -- where they've been notoriously stingy -- and toward re-signing promising youngsters such as first baseman Brett Wallace and righthander Bud Norris.

"To me you always have to be honest about what you're trying to accomplish and why you're trying to accomplish it," says Wade. "Let's face it, if the fans had the ultimate say, then everyone's payroll would be $250 million and every player would be signed to a 10-year contract. We have to make smart baseball decisions whether the fans agree with them or not." He is optimistic the Astros will compete again when their shared TV network with the Houston Rockets launches prior to the 2013 season, which will provide the team with a surge in revenue.

The problem for many GMs is that even if they want to blow up the roster and start from scratch, ownership wants no part, for fear of alienating fans. Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi says that during his tenure, Mariners ownership was never interested in rebuilding, something that might complicate Zduriencik's job if he decides it's time to trade Hernandez and Ichiro.

But Zduriencik can argue that trading Lee to the Rangers brought the club its future cornerstone, 24-year-old first baseman Justin Smoak, who currently leads the club in OPS. In that deal, the Rangers were getting Lee, an impending free agent, as a half-season rental. Hernandez, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is signed through 2014 and would likely bring a much better package of prospects. The 37-year-old Ichiro is due $34 million over the next two years. And while he wouldn't net as much talent, trading him would give Seattle salary relief. The problem is that Ichiro is not only a fan favorite but an ownership favorite. As Bavasi -- who now works as a special assistant to Reds GM Walt Jocketty -- wrote in an e-mail: "The subject of trading Felix and the subject of trading Ichiro are two entirely different things." The implication is that trading Hernandez would be a baseball operations decision, while trading Ichiro would be one for the boardroom. Both players have limited no-trade clauses, but it's hard to imagine they would oppose playing for a winner.

The good news for the Mariners is that the cupboard is far from bare. In addition to Smoak, rookie righthander Michael Pineda is one of the most promising young arms in the league. And ESPN Insider's preseason organization rankings put the Mariners' farm system at No. 10, led by second baseman Dustin Ackley. Plus, Seattle has the No. 2 pick in the June draft, which means even more elite talent is on the way.

Of course, bringing up a core of elite prospects at the same time means they will simultaneously hit arbitration and free agency, giving Zduriencik another worry down the road. That's why he believes gradually incorporating young players is the key to long-term success.

Let's just hope Seattle keeps Zduriencik around to enjoy it.

[Shugi]

Interesting article!

But i doubt that this quote below is true still, might have been some years ago, but from what i read on the forums etc. fans have become more concerned about the financials of teams.

"Let's face it, if the fans had the ultimate say, then everyone's payroll would be $250 million and every player would be signed to a 10-year contract.

And i bet Felix will end up in Boston sometime this season or offseason, Theo Epstein would trade half his AAA team for him. Hernandez and A-Gonzalez were always his "dream"-players.

[jcrmoon42]

And i bet Felix will end up in Boston sometime this season or offseason, Theo Epstein would trade half his AAA team for him. Hernandez and A-Gonzalez were always his "dream"-players.

I think I just peed myself a little.

[lynchy34]

Me too. That would be insane. And you're right. Theo would definitely do what it took to get Felix in Boston. I wouldn't fight it!

[recte44]

We could add him to Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo in Milwaukee....I'd be ok with that.

[EchoesIE]

Or in San Francisco -- where a rotation of Lincecum, Hernandez, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner would win a stupid amount of games.

[recte44]

Now that would just be unfair.

How about PHI?

[lynchy34]

Boston actually NEEDS him!

[EchoesIE]

How in the wide world does Boston need him? Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lester...thats a pretty remarkable threesome on the mound.

[lynchy34]

How in the wide world does Boston need him? Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lester...thats a pretty remarkable threesome on the mound.

I capitalized the word need in hopes someone would recognize the sarcasm.

[EchoesIE]

Oh, haha. Don't I feel like an idiot

[recte44]

Don't forget about Dice-K....oh, wait...yes, you can forget about him.