Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

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Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Mon May 30, 2016 11:29 am

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While José Chávez returns home this off season, the rest of the world contemplates his future.
October 24, 2026 – The kid’s just 24 years old but back home in Santo Domingo, everybody knows his name. He’s José Chávez, the towering left hander, six-foot-seven, with the 100 Mile an Hour bola rápida. Even though he’s got the smooth face of youth, everyone calls him Dogface as he strolls down the gravel roads that lead to his family house. “Hoy, Dogface!” they call, and he waves back. “Mi hermano me dio el nombre,” he says. My brother gave me the name. He goes on to tell a story of when he and his brother Juan were playing in an old junkyard and came across a dead dog. “He said I looked just like the dog,” Chávez gives a slow smile that has as much discomfort buried inside it as it does humor on the out.

“My brother works making shoes now,” he says.

Yes, he’s still a kid, but there are a few miles on his gaze now—like he’s seen the future, and he’s not telling, which is a shame because the question on everyone else’s mind today is about just that future.

Does he have another step up left in him? Can that slider keep sliding, can the knuckle keep curving, and can that changeup change a little more? Can he be the ace that Yellow Springs so desperately needs?

In that light, while it’s the knuckle curve that makes Chávez’s repertoire so interesting, his performance arc is what has GMs, commentators and fans around the world buzzing. His entry into the league as a 22-year-old rookie was a bit rocky (7-15, 5.08 [4.01 FIP, 99 FIP-]). He hit a stride as a 23-year-old, though, going 10-7 with a 4.01 and dropping the FIP to a very nice 3.43 (86 FIP-). While his record evened out a bit last season (11-10), the ERA continued to drop to 3.63 (3.37 FIP, 83 FIP-). With the exception of his raw K-rate (which is still 8.8/9), all his rate stats have improved.

For the advanced stat lovers out there, here are his WAR numbers as a big leaguer: 1.6, 3.5, 4.3.

And, so, yes … while Chávez takes in the winter at home—eating his mother’s home cooking, playing sandlot with the boys, and seeing the local girls fawn over him and his projected $3M arbitration figure (a little spending cash never hurts the aura of the local boy done good)—the rest of the world is looking forward to seeing what next year’s numbers will look like.

“Not a clue,” he says later that night as we’re sitting in the back yard with his family.

The extended family is maybe fifty big. Uncles and Aunts and cousins and kids. They’re gathered here with him, eating a special pork barbecue in José Chávez’s honor. The air smells thick with smoke and music from a pair of tinny speakers Chávez’s uncle came over earlier to wire up. His youngest sister is playing a drum beat on a rusted metal can the family throws its garbage in, and a collection of the women stand around her, clapping to the beat and doing dance steps in the darkening evening. They’ve here tonight to be with Chávez now, to see him in the flesh rather than on a panel of glass or through the static of the radio. But you can sense a different barrier now. They each come and touch him, and it’s as if they’re touching a different beast, like in his absence he’s turned into something supernatural that they can’t possibly comprehend. They hear the number—three million—and it might as well be the Andromeda galaxy as far as they’re concerned.

But in the end, he’s still “Dogface” to them. He is now, anyway. You can feel that in the collective today, too. Despite their concern, he’s still their Dogface. As the sun sets and the food is served, I watch the gathering and I wonder if that will change after the $3 million, and after the $3 million after that, and after …

“I got no clue as to whether the numbers will get better,” he says after he’s put away enough dinner to make his mother happy. “I mean, sure I want them too. But it’s baseball. I figure if I think I know what’s going to happen, I’m just going to be wrong. All I can do is keep working, you know?”

“No escuchar a él,” his dad says to me as he’s sitting on a nearby chair of weather-beaten plastic, sipping beer and smiling with big white teeth. “Mi hijo ya es el mejor lanzador que jamás haya existido.”

I do the translation in my head. Don’t listen to him. My son is already the greatest pitcher who ever lived!

José Chávez’s laugh is real then. “Don’t listen to him,” he tells me. “He also tells everyone that Juan is the greatest cobbler in the whole of the Dominican.”

I nod, and make a note.

Then I excuse myself and go to search out Juan Chávez.

The strap on my sandal has been feeling loose and it’s begun to lose its sole. I can’t think of a better place on earth to get it patched up.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by trmmilwwi » Mon May 30, 2016 12:40 pm

Great read! Thanks..
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by Ted » Mon May 30, 2016 9:07 pm

I think unless he learns to be a bit more efficient with his his pitches, his ceiling is #2. To really be an ace you have to be the guy that can be counted on to give the bullpen a day off or light duty more often than not, and he doesn't have the command/stamina combo to do that right now
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Mon May 30, 2016 10:20 pm

Ted wrote:I think unless he learns to be a bit more efficient with his his pitches, his ceiling is #2. To really be an ace you have to be the guy that can be counted on to give the bullpen a day off or light duty more often than not, and he doesn't have the command/stamina combo to do that right now
You're probably right, there. One of the things I find intriguing about this league, though, is that so many of the kids show up ready to play so early...so there's still open zones for development. I'm figuring that at 24, his arc isn't quite done yet. So, you never know. Shrug.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by Ted » Mon May 30, 2016 10:31 pm

RonCo wrote:
Ted wrote:I think unless he learns to be a bit more efficient with his his pitches, his ceiling is #2. To really be an ace you have to be the guy that can be counted on to give the bullpen a day off or light duty more often than not, and he doesn't have the command/stamina combo to do that right now
You're probably right, there. One of the things I find intriguing about this league, though, is that so many of the kids show up ready to play so early...so there's still open zones for development. I'm figuring that at 24, his arc isn't quite done yet. So, you never know. Shrug.
I agree with you here. The reason I phased that "unless he learns" is that as a 24 year old with several years experience, it seems like there's a good chance he gets a control or motion bump in the next few years, which would push him over the hump. This is the reason I haven't converted Gerardo Castillo to reliever yet, although he would be a best there.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by agrudez » Tue May 31, 2016 11:42 am

An ace by what definition? I think he already *is* in the top half of #1s in the league - which is an ace in my book.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Tue May 31, 2016 12:51 pm

We like him pretty well, even if he doesn't progress more.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 2:27 pm

agrudez wrote:An ace by what definition? I think he already *is* in the top half of #1s in the league - which is an ace in my book.
But will he outperform Laloosh? I'd say he's firmly in the top 25 for starting pitchers, but not the top 15 (which is what I'd consider an "Ace"). Still, he's great....and for that price!
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by agrudez » Tue May 31, 2016 3:14 pm

udlb58 wrote:But will he outperform Laloosh?
He just did? 3.37 FIP in 32 starts vs. 3.53 in 21 starts.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 3:21 pm

agrudez wrote:
udlb58 wrote:But will he outperform Laloosh?
He just did? 3.37 FIP in 32 starts vs. 3.53 in 21 starts.
I meant going forward. LaLoosh may just have a high enough ceiling to overcome the L/R factor
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 3:40 pm

An interesting stat that OOTP doesn't track, K%/BB% (strikeouts per at-bat/walks per at-bat) it has quite a bit less noise than straight K/BB

Chavez - 17.28%
LaLoosh - 16.33%
Granados - 16.36%
Considine - 17.03%

Ramirez was tops in the league at 28.02%; JL Nebraska winner Gomez was 18.59%; the JL average for all pitchers was ~13%. Obviously this leaves out HR rates (which though a noisy stat, we can quantify via the Movement rating). All of the guys mentioned, except Gomez, are in the same ballpark in MOV (Granados is a point lower, but has bounced between 6-7) so you'd expect similar HR rates in a typical year.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Tue May 31, 2016 5:14 pm

udlb58 wrote:An interesting stat that OOTP doesn't track, K%/BB% (strikeouts per at-bat/walks per at-bat) it has quite a bit less noise than straight K/BB
Maybe it's the new math thing, but to the best of my understanding:

(K/AB)/(BB/AB) = K/BB

Please educate!
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by trmmilwwi » Tue May 31, 2016 5:37 pm

udlb58 wrote:
agrudez wrote:An ace by what definition? I think he already *is* in the top half of #1s in the league - which is an ace in my book.
But will he outperform Laloosh? I'd say he's firmly in the top 25 for starting pitchers, but not the top 15 (which is what I'd consider an "Ace"). Still, he's great....and for that price!
24 teams.. 24 #1 pitchers... I would say there is room for a top 25 being aces discussion! ;)
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 5:48 pm

trmmilwwi wrote:
udlb58 wrote:
agrudez wrote:An ace by what definition? I think he already *is* in the top half of #1s in the league - which is an ace in my book.
But will he outperform Laloosh? I'd say he's firmly in the top 25 for starting pitchers, but not the top 15 (which is what I'd consider an "Ace"). Still, he's great....and for that price!
24 teams.. 24 #1 pitchers... I would say there is room for a top 25 being aces discussion! ;)
Semantics. I feel like there's a difference between #1 pitcher and "ace" (and between best pitcher on a team/staff 'ace' and a #1 pitcher). To me, a true ace is someone you would pick over the field to win the Nebraska in any given year while a #1 pitcher is anyone in the top 24 pitchers.

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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Tue May 31, 2016 6:12 pm

udlb58 wrote: Semantics. I feel like there's a difference between #1 pitcher and "ace" (and between best pitcher on a team/staff 'ace' and a #1 pitcher). To me, a true ace is someone you would pick over the field to win the Nebraska in any given year while a #1 pitcher is anyone in the top 24 pitchers.

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There's probably a middle ground. I like the idea of an "ace" generally being in the top half of #1 pitchers in the league ... though maybe there are a few more, because it does happen that one team collects up a few of these guys at a time. I agree also that Chavez's Control/Stamina pairing keep him from being one of those rock-solid guys that you just never expect to struggle. I do think he's on the cusp, at least. But I'm still doing my second deep-dive, so what do I know?
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 6:23 pm

Ha, well I have the #1pick again, so apparently I don't know anything either

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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by agrudez » Tue May 31, 2016 7:57 pm

RonCo wrote: There's probably a middle ground. I like the idea of an "ace" generally being in the top half of #1 pitchers in the league ...
That is my definition, too. If 'ace' stopped at Kershaw in the MLB it'd be a hollow identifier - so it shouldn't stop at Diaz and chandler in the mbba, either.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by udlb58 » Tue May 31, 2016 10:12 pm

My aces would be:

Nelson Ramirez
Ricardo Diaz
Billy Chapel, Jr
Manuel Ramirez
Enrique Gomez
Juan Jose Ornelas
Jesus Tonche
Mingo Boone
Jon Chandler
Gary Estes
Jose Olivarez

I'd put money on any of these guys to win the Nebraska before I'd bet on the rest of the field. Barring injury, I just feel like these guys are ones you can count on to be great (though Boone and Estes are starting to get up there in age)

I think Chavez kind of fits into that next category with Castillo, Datiz, Delgado, Rodriguez, Ward, Lopez, A. Ramirez, Bautista, Freitas, Leroy, Morris, Medina, and Stanza who are probably #s 12-24 but that order will probably shift from year to year and any one of them can jump up and have a truly great season and steal a Nebraska.
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Tue May 31, 2016 10:33 pm

It's an interesting list, no matter how you look at it. Tonche and Rodriguez are 23, Ward and Chavez are 24, and Dietz is 25.

The rest are all at their peak or past it. Laloosh may wind up in the bottom half of that group before too long (fingers crossed).
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Re: Can José Chávez Be An Ace?

Post by RonCo » Tue May 31, 2016 10:43 pm

Regardless of where you put him, I'm glad this little bit on Chavez brought on what has been to me a very useful conversation.
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