2062 Trade Deadline Trade Analysis: The Lucio Guevara Trade (Rocky Mountain-Charm City)

[lordtoffee]

It's been no surprise that the Atlantic contenders have all made big trades as they are bunched tightly in the race for the division title. Charm City ended up making a big splash in getting Lúcio Guevara from Rocky Mountain in exchange for prospects. Let's take a closer look at this deal. A quick disclaimer, I have no inside information on how the trade went down. This analysis could age like milk in the future.

The Trade:
Rocky Mountain sends:
SS Lúcio Guevara (ML)
P Joe Shaw(ML, 50% retention)
Charm City sends:
1B Dean Howard (AAA)
2B Jesús Llado (AAA)
3B Alan Hedges (AAA)
P Jerry Raymond (AAA)
LF Ricardo Gomez (AAA)
C Eduardo Gonzalez (AA)

What This Trade Means For Charm City:
Getting Guevara is a major statement of intent for Charm City and he is going to be a key contributor down the stretch for the Jimmies. In a BBA where teams have tended to choose between offense and defense at the shortstop position, Guevara can provide both. His defensive metrics and Gold Glove hardware demonstrate that he can play defense at a high level. On offense, he can hit for power and average. All in all, he makes a Charm City lineup that has been mighty impressive even more deep. The real cherry on top is that Guevara has another year of team control before he hits free agency. And depending on what happens with the options Dave has on a couple of players, Guevara could be sticking around a lot longer. All in all, Guevara is someone that could prove the difference in winning a title, and that is what the Jimmies are in contention for. This was a move that makes all of the sense in the world for the Jimmies even if they had just gotten Guevara.

Shaw is a bullpen piece that is a rental, and he is going to help be a piece that gets the Jimmies to their very good back end of the bullpen. Shaw has some back end experience if disaster strikes, but that is not likely what the Jimmies have in mind. While I don't see Shaw being as good as Guevara, getting Shaw as well makes a lot of sense to give more options in the 5th-6th innings to the Jimmies manager.

What This Trade Means For Rocky Mountain:
Starting with Howard, he does have some above average power and his numbers at AAA show that he could be above average as an offensive first baseman. That being said, he is playing at about his full potential. Howard is more than likely going to be a solid piece, but isn't going to be an elite piece. I could see Justin holding onto Howard or flipping him later on in a package for someone else. A solid piece, but is likely not going to be a BBA star. Mentals are pretty good, and that could lead to some development lab success.

Llado has a couple of things that are going to help him. He has speed, which is a handy tool. Llado also can play at multiple positions around the diamond. I see him at second as the best spot from a defensive perspective. He still has a little more potential to reach, though his mentals are not going to be standouts by any measure. He could be a very good bench player or a fringe BBA starter. Not to say that Llado isn't valuable, but certainly won't replace Guevara on his own. That would be an unfair ask.

Hedges is very likely to be the star of this package from Rocky Mountain's perspective. He has very good power potential and hit for power in his amateur days. He isn't going to be horrible defensively at third, but could do with a development lab trip to work on his defense. Hedges is going to be a key piece in this rebuild, and if he can perform up to his potential can help fill the Guevara void from an offensive perspective. It wouldn't surprise me if Justin was pleased to have Hedges included in the package.

Raymond was listed as a starter, but looks like he could be an intriguing option coming out of the bullpen. His sinker and fastball are projected to be plus plus, and has some good control especially for a young pitcher. Does have closing experience in the minors, and could make the majors within the next year or two. If he can improve his stuff and be placed in the right role, Raymond could be a piece that fits in the bullpen of the Oysters team that returns to the playoffs.

Gomez looks like he is going to be a pretty good defensive outfielder in left field. He is going to hit for a good average, and has a decent amount of power. Another good piece that could do something in Rocky Mountain as a 4th outfielder, or could be a piece that could get someone if Rocky Mountain wants. His minor league numbers have been good, and is pretty much at his full potential as of now barring anything as a lump or bump down the line. A good piece, but not an elite piece.

Gonzalez is a young catcher, and his value at this point is mostly going to be in the game calling and defensive department. He has been hitting well in the minors. Could be a solid catcher for Rocky Mountain, though he is going to have to work on throwing out stealers. I can see him as a starting catcher for the Oysters, or as part of a platoon. A good choice to upgrade catching depth and get someone in a position that can be hard to find in this league.

Who Won the Trade:
This trade makes sense for both teams. Charm City is going for it, and makes them better right now. If they win a BBA title, then the trade works under the flags fly forever rule. Think about the Bucks trading for Jrue Holiday. Yeah they gave up a lot for him, but the Bucks won a title. As for Rocky Mountain, they were able to get plenty of pieces back that can help them out. If these 6 guys help Justin take the next step in his building of a team in his own image or get traded for someone who Justin wants, then the Oysters win the trade. The full measure of this trade is going to be known in about 2064-65.

[BaseClogger]

Feels like the Sammy McNeil deal all over again. I expect Guevara to be extended before the year is out.

[ae37jr]

I feel like the way development archs have been. If you have a star SS/CF over the age of 25 and can get a huge haul... you take it. Guevara is just one range lump away from being the next Keith Jahnke. I guess OOTP 26 is better at that. But I will believe it when I see it.

Still a good trade for Charm City though. they are built to win now and Guevara is a stud. It's more from the RMO perspective. By the time they build a winner, maybe Guevara isn't Guevara anymore.

[DaveB]

From my perspective let me start by saying that I don’t like making splashy trades or deadline trading as I enjoy seeing the fruits of my build bless the good people of Charm City.

That said the team is built for today and I noticed that Izz al Din bin Riyad was struggling and he took a couple offensive lumps in the last year in game so I was actually focused on trying to add at 3b. I kicked the tires on a few players, but didn’t like the return so I was set to go with Darvell as my starter at 3B until I saw the Oysters block.

A lot of names were discussed between us. The deal was basically dead on my end night. I was hesitant to give up the prospects and use cap space to extend Guevara. I woke up Saturday. The Mrs was still sleeping so I decided to take a look further into the deal. Shot a message over to Brandon and it didn’t take long from there. Shaw was added Saturday.

Brandon wanted either Hedges or Arturo Perez as the main piece. I chose Hedges because I was a bit worried about his fragile health and the big concern for me is I wasn’t sure if he’d stay at 3B. If you’re playing in the field the Jimmies under my watch you’re going to need to play average defense and I was/am skeptical about him doing that. I looked at my team a bit more and thought “Ayyad Faisal can’t really hit, but he should thrive at 3B which will give us arguably the best infield defense in the BBA”. We’re going to look at an extension soon. Guevara is a top 5 SS in the league and having the chance to acquire one is huge especially when we’ve been drafting late in the rounds in recent seasons.

I actually had most of my offseason planned out prior to the trade. This trade might make some things like the 40 man roster a little easier, but it’ll hurt in terms of having financial flexibility. Thankfully my upper minor league system has solid depth at most positions so I think this is a good deal not only now, but in the future.

[niles08]

From my perspective let me start by saying that I don’t like making splashy trades or deadline trading as I enjoy seeing the fruits of my build bless the good people of Charm City.

That said the team is built for today and I noticed that Izz al Din bin Riyad was struggling and he took a couple offensive lumps in the last year in game so I was actually focused on trying to add at 3b. I kicked the tires on a few players, but didn’t like the return so I was set to go with Darvell as my starter at 3B until I saw the Oysters block.

A lot of names were discussed between us. The deal was basically dead on my end night. I was hesitant to give up the prospects and use cap space to extend Guevara. I woke up Saturday. The Mrs was still sleeping so I decided to take a look further into the deal. Shot a message over to Brandon and it didn’t take long from there. Shaw was added Saturday.

Brandon wanted either Hedges or Arturo Perez as the main piece. I chose Hedges because I was a bit worried about his fragile health and the big concern for me is I wasn’t sure if he’d stay at 3B. If you’re playing in the field the Jimmies under my watch you’re going to need to play average defense and I was/am skeptical about him doing that. I looked at my team a bit more and thought “Ayyad Faisal can’t really hit, but he should thrive at 3B which will give us arguably the best infield defense in the BBA”. We’re going to look at an extension soon. Guevara is a top 5 SS in the league and having the chance to acquire one is huge especially when we’ve been drafting late in the rounds in recent seasons.

I actually had most of my offseason planned out prior to the trade. This trade might make some things like the 40 man roster a little easier, but it’ll hurt in terms of having financial flexibility. Thankfully my upper minor league system has solid depth at most positions so I think this is a good deal not only now, but in the future.

Just so you know...my name isn't Brandon lol. I should revoke the trade based on that alone.

[CTBrewCrew]

You got a new forum name now @niles08

[CTBrewCrew]

You got a new forum name now @niles08

[Dington]

Maybe I’m just like Bill Gates and knowing the price of a gallon of milk, but I don’t see the value in Guevara. Gave up a lot for what seems likes an above average SS having a career year. Is he a top 5 SS?

[BaseClogger]

Who do you rank above him?

[Dington]

Who do you rank above him?

Your favorite, Brooks Eliot, of course . It was a genuine question. I’ll have to look, but is he top 5? I can think of three in FL better in Eliot, Isam, and McNeill.

[BaseClogger]

McNeill and Isam might be better right now but projecting forward I’d take Guevara since they’re 35.

Not a lot of shortstop talent in the JL.

[RonCo]

Guevera is an interesting guy. I'm not sure he's a real switch hitter, but that's okay. He was a tad pricey, but he's only 26 (or, if you are so inclined, he's already 26 and ready for a falloff). I like him. He's probably the guy CCJ needed right now. But he's also got some risk to him. His power numbers will almost certainly fall off outside of Denver now.

He's having a career year, though. I don't know what the future will bring, but it seems like a deal both teams probably had to make.

[Trebro]

It's a deal you make to win a championship. Of course there's that slight problem of Nashville.