Trade Review 2023 #6 - Vancouver Looks to the Future

[Ted]

Vancouver's had some bad luck recently. Players lumping young, injuries and other misfortunes have crashed the course of a Mounties team that thought it had set itself up to run the JLP for a few years. Underachieving this year appears to have prompted Vancouver to reassess that plan. The westwardmost division in the Johnson league appears to feature four teams that are above agverage, but not great. Any one of those teams can get hot, have a couple lucky bounces and take the division, as proven by Valencia and California this year. A smart manager might choose to remove himself from this competition and retool their club to be a real championship contender, rather than a division champ hopeful. Unfotunately, this usually means blowing a team up to acquire the young talent necessary for a prolonged run. At the 2023 trade deadline, this is what Vancouver did.


Vancouver/Calgary
Calgary receives:
SP Juan Lucero

Vancouver receives:
P Diego Garcia (prospect)
P Manny Padilla (prospect)

Lucero is a decent back end starter, as evidenced by his career 4.19 FIP. He'll need the team to score some runs to get a win, but you could do a lot worse. He's signed next year at 4 mil, which is an okay price for someone of is talents. He's the kind of pitcher a contender might be okay with throwing out there 25-30 times if they have an offense, which one assumes is what Calgary was trying to add behind Perry Eccles, For Mulder, and Jorge Jimenez.

Diego Garcia is a 20 year old righty with a pretty decent fastball, however he's struggled with control as he's gotten stronger. He'll pretty soon be at the age where what you see is what you get, and needs to figure something out if he's going to make it as a starter. He could conceivably convert to a reliever, especially if he gets a little more velocity. Manny Padilla is 21 and still can't hit the broad side of a barn. With some rapid development, he might see regular big league action one day, but more likely is a quad A type guy.

Calgary wins the talent aspect of this trade, in that it will probably get at least one decent year out of Lucero after 2023. On the other hand, Vancouver wasn't going to use him during a rebuild, so getting something for him makes sense, and it's tough to get much better than what they got for a back end starter. Solid, if unexciting deal.


Vancouver/Huntsville
Huntsville receives:
SS Armando Reyes (ML)

Vancouver receives:
Antonio Rodriguez (AAA)

After their failed Antonio Sanchez experiment, Huntsville acquires a real shortstop in Armando Reyes. Reyes doesn't hit for average of walk, but his does give you 25-30 homers a year and play the heck out of shortstop. He's signed at a very reasonable 3 (4+ with incentives) million for next year as well.

Antonio Rodriguez has sneaky good upside. The problem is, at 24, he's still awfully far from it. He might need some offseason coaching on his work ethic, if he's every going to approach his potential. He's a decent field firstbaseman with a very good eye, and good, if not great hitting and power ability. Were he to fully developed, I'd guess he's a .285/.360/.455 at least. Not your prototypical first baseman, but still a very decent player.

The nice thing about selling is that the deals all make sense. Huntsville has so much first base talent, especially after their trade with Vegas, that Rodriguez became expendable. Reyes is a solid improvement at short. For Vancouver, they get a real prospect (if a somewhat risky one) for a quietly good player without a big trade market (I say this, because Kyle's moneyball oriented offense is one where Reyes' power and not much else can contribute more than the occasional solo shot) that will simply age and then leave the team. Good deal for both teams.


Vancouver/Seattle
Seattle receives:
P Tomas Guerrero
P Mike Clifton
P Mike Hibbard

Vancouver receives:
P Jeff French(prospect)
P Jose Barron (prospect)
P Edward Kish

With Vegas hot on their tails, Seattle decided to look just north of the border for a little help of their own. Guererro is a rarity in this league, a reliable, cheap reliever. he's signed for two more years and the Storm will enjoy both. Clifton is a bit more up and down, but wasn't too expensive, at least before the Storm signed him to a 3 year extension. I'll guess that they will hate at easy one of those years. Hibbard is a lefty specialist, and has been decent as one. He makes his teammates call him "Ace". They (not so) secretly hate him.

French should be able to throw some acceptable relief innings at some point, but will need more control to be reliable. At 22, Jose Barron should probably not be expected to ever start at the major level. He has a ton of mediocre pitches, and may benefit from an RP conversion. Lets say simply switching him to his position makes him 7/7/7, and the conversion gets to 8/7/7. It's possible I guess. Ed Kish gets clobbered by lefties. Maybe he'd do better out of the pen. ROOGY?

Again not a spectacular trade, but it's hard to get stuff for relievers with expiring deals. My guess it one out of the three guys they acquired becomes a regular for Vancouver, and another pitches some useful innigns now and then. Not too shabby. Seattle shores up its pen and doesn't give up a ton. Good deal both ways.


Vancouver/Birgminham
Birmingham receives:
3B Diego Moreno
1B Phil Chapman
LF Pedro Vega
RP Skip Stewart

Vancouver receives:
LF Bill Burkholder Jr
P Cristian Herrera (prospect)
RF Gabriel Trujillo (prospect)
P Augusto Cruz (prospect)

As I write these articles, I realize that I'm the kind of guy who if he doesn't have a great team, he doesn't try to trade to get better immediately. I'll be honest, a cursory look has me seeing Birmingham as a better team than I thought, so this makes a bit more sense. My initial reaction was "Why are they trading prospects for vets when Indy is in dynasty mode and New Orleans is stil; strong?" On review, Indy will still be tough to beat, but New Orleans is weaker than they have been in a while. I just don't know the Frick as well. Let's see how B-Ham got better.

Diego Moreno is a terrific third baseman. He has a good deal for two more years (assuming the option is picked up). He did decline before this season started. That's scary at 27. If he holds where he is, he's still a top 5 third baseman and a good upgrade for the Bandits. I didn't like Phil Chapman before and I don't now. First base is one of those few spots where it's not to tough to get a power hitter. He's also having a career year, and buying high is never a great idea. His contract isn't too bad though, even if he's platoon/part time. Vega had a bad year, but he's a monster hitter with a great deal and should help out as Bandits mainstay George Patrick looks likes he's about to run into a severe case of the "olds". Skip Stuart is a very good 27 year old reliever, and is cheap.

Vancouver lost some real talent here, but got some very good prospects in exchange. RF Trujillo could be a very good player. He's 19, so he's hardly a lock. If he lumps across the board once, he's 6/6/8/6/4 and as a righty, that could keep him from being an every day player. It's really incredible how fine the line is for right handed hitters. Augusto Cruz looks like a future set up guy. He's 21 and on track to develop as expected. Herera looked like a very good mid rotation start when he was traded for, he's lumped his control since, and is somewhat underdeveloped in that aspect for a 22 year old. He's had some concerning lumps and is definitely a red flag prospect, but could end up being nice piece for the Mounties about the time they are ready to compete again. Burkholder has been a disappointment thus far in his career. He may develop into a good enough LF to make him a starter, but it's questionable. More likely he's a backup OF.

Birmingham didn't loose as much from a prospect standpoint as it seems, and the added talent will certainly make them better next year. Two years, maybe. Three, I'm not so sure. If they don't make the playoffs in the next two year, this will have been a bad deal. Vancouver got a handful of prospects with question marks, but tremendous upside. I think this is too early to call for Birmingham (also, I just don't know that division well enough, Birmingham especially, to know if this is the time to throw the Haymaker) and good for Vancouver.

Vancouver/Tuscon
Tuscon receives:
RF Daniel Labrie Jr
2B Edward Allen
$5,000,000

Vancouver receives:
LF William McIntyre
P Li Beggs
CF Barry Allen
P Rob Miller
P Angel Calderon

Labrie may not be as good as his dad, but he's still one of the better outfielders in the league. He's a 5 WAR yearly, and does everything except hit homeruns fairly well. He isn't quite the player he was during his heyday, but he's probably good for the next couple years. The problem is that he's signed for 3 more after this one, and that last year (and if Tuscon is unlucky, the one before it) could be brutal, because his price tag is large. Labrie's a gamble, but probably not as much of one as he looks like. As long as he stays as he is now, he's a cornerstone bat. I don't like Ed Allen. I know he's consistent, but old age is old age, and hes signed forever. If you read the last article, you'd have seen this: Ed Allen is 34, and looking at his numbers, his best years are probably behind him. He's been remarkably consistent after age 30, but it's only a matter of time. Good thing he's only due 30 mil over the next five years. Yeouch. Like everyone else they acquired, Allen was on fire after the trade, so maybe I'm an idiot.

Dinnerplate sucks. Should he? Who cares, because he has for years now and he's off the books after next year, which is no problem for Vancouver. Maybe he'll get his head out of his ass, post a decent first half in 2024 and net Vancouver another asset. Who knows? Beggs has been an unreliable reliever for Tuscon, so Vancouver stuck him in the starting rotation. As odd as that sounds, I like the move. Beggs' FIP has never been as bad as his ERA. he has a great change and big time stamina. He's the definition of a lefty junkballer. Whether they mean to flip him or keep him, he's a decent asset. I like Barry Allen, not as much as I like Wally West, but a good deal more than Bart Allen and Jay Garrick. As a centerfielder, he's been better than he should, a 1-2 WAR guy. Most of this is due to an unexplainable career .321 OBP. He's expensive at over 4.5 mil for two more years, but someone has to play for the Mounties, and these little costs shouldn't matter to them. Rob Miller gets crushed by Lefties. I wouldn't count on him despite occasional flashes of okay-ness. Calderon should be a decent middle relief type at some point.

Vancouver should be happy with this trade if only for getting out of a lot of committed salary that they don't need. You could argue that they could have gotten more for Labrie, but many owners probably wouldn't like his deal. Beggs actually might end up being the best player Vancouver gets in this deal, although Calderon will be a part of someone's pen someday. When a name like Labrie moves, you expect more talent to go each way. The Mounties did take on a couple contracts, but they will be up before too long and aren't too pricey. Tuscon on the other hand picks up a very good outfielder and in my mind a very scary middle infield contract for a bunch of players that were not helping them at all and one second tier relief prospect. Not too bad either. Vancouver did alright here. Not real exciting as no big prospects moved. I'll talk more about Tuscon when we get to their other deal in Trade Review #7.


Vancouver/Greenville
Vancouver recevies:
P Téo Dumont (prospect)
P Phil Rose (prospect)
P Stuart Pearce
SS Oggy Oglethorpe
P Pedro Chavez (prospect)

Greenville receives:
P Mark Burns
DH Andrew Ivey

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRETT, DO YOU HAVE TO TRADE A FIFTH OF YOUR TEAM IN EVERY DEAL?!?!?!?!?!!!!

As the fire sale continues, Vancouver picks up a few more prospects. Dumont and Rose are minor leaguers, barring multiple miracles. Pedro Chavez, on the other hand could be a lefty specialist now, and if he develops the rest of the way, could be a good arm out of the pen. I'd just play him next year regardless of development. At 8/6/6, he has nothing to learn in the minors. Oggy is in decline now, but he has a glove an a little pop left. He'll find a team next year most likely. Pearce, with a 4.5 mil tag, is thankfully a free agent after the season. He simply can't get the ball over the plate enough to be reliable.

Greenville had two choice before the season, given their old team and empty minors. Rather than blow it up, they chose to try to win in a weakened JLA. This trade was a last gasp towards that end. This is Burns 4th team this year, which should say something about his dependability. He might still be able to be a 5th starter, and has a reasonable price tag next year for that, but he's nothing special. Ivey was having a good year and probably looked attractive, but I don't like his kind of player. No power, doesn't walk, bad defense. He's a .280-.300 without much else at this point. I guess he's alright if you like singles, and want to pay 7.5 million for 130 of them next year.

This is a trade full of ugly players. Vancouver made out well because of Chavez. Basically this trade comes down to garbage with bad deals or expiring contracts both ways and Vancouver gets a decent relief prospect. It's a bad deal for Greenville because they have very few assets and lost one in a deal that only marginally improves a bad team.


Whew. That's a ton of personnel change on one day. Kudos to Brett for saying "F-this noise, I'll be back in 2-3 years". Great timing to do so. Vancouver also did a very good deal of getting something for assets that aren't easy to move. They didn't really get the marquee prospect you'd hope for, maybe Trujillo can become this, but that trade isn't always there/ Notably, Vancouver now has the 5th best minors in the games admittedly flawed rankings.

[bigmike13]

Another excellent article. There is always that window for an owner of when to make a move and when not to. I am coming out of my second restructure and have been on an upward track since 2019. This year i finished above .500 at 84-78, but more importantly I was actually in the playoff hunt up until the very last sim. And quite frankly that was ALL because of my pitching staff. So I decided to jump back in the fire and make this trade, and you are absolutely correct by saying "if they don't make the playoffs in the next two years this will be a bad deal".

I am usually one of those owners that leans to hording prospects, and I also have to fight the urge to fall in love with certain players (Kal El) and wait too late to make a trade. In the end, it is my job as GM to put the necessary pieces in place to make the playoffs, because we all know that all bets are off once the playoffs begin. Good move or bad move is sometimes better than no move at all, and at the very least my neighborhood liquor store is excited because they know I will either be toasting my brilliant success or drowning my sorrows.

[aaronweiner]

Well, the Ginori trade was small. For me, too.

[Ted]

Good move or bad move is sometimes better than no move at all, and at the very least my neighborhood liquor store is excited because they know I will either be toasting my brilliant success or drowning my sorrows.

I think you could say often better than no move at all. Worst thing you can do is stand pat on an 75-85 win team. That's the best way to end up in perpetual mediocrity followed by salary problems. I never pull the trigger on big deals it seems, and I'm sure it's hurt me. Seem to always be waiting for that perfect moment, and of course it never happens. I think we all fall in love with our own guys and wait to long to move them if that's where the team is going.

[bschr682]

I think you could say often better than no move at all. Worst thing you can do is stand pat on an 75-85 win team. That's the best way to end up in perpetual mediocrity followed by salary problems. I never pull the trigger on big deals it seems, and I'm sure it's hurt me. Seem to always be waiting for that perfect moment, and of course it never happens. I think we all fall in love with our own guys and wait to long to move them if that's where the team is going.

[bschr682]

Pretty spot on with all of your thoughts on what I was attempting to do. Im going to let Dinnerplate try to prove he is a big leaguer and hopefully he can net me a comp pick next year. More than a few of the questionable SP prospects I got in return are destined for a reliever conversion (and then ill probably flip them again!). And I really, really hope Trujillo ends up being awesome. Time will tell.

[bigmike13]

Believe it or not i hope that Truillo ends up being awesome for you also.

[recte44]

Don't talk bad about Ed Allen, man.

[Ted]

Don't talk bad about Ed Allen, man.

I know you like him, and he's outperformed what anyone would expect well into his 30's. I hope he makes me look like a jerk, but that's a lot of contract. He was good in Tuscon though, so maybe he's the guy that just defies father time.