Trade Review 2024 #2 - Hey remember these deals?

[Ted]

Our second release of the year will look at the trades from the first third of the season. They will get our traditional grades, but might include a bit of analysis about how they have worked out thus far. (As a reminder, the "talent" grade is a rating of the talent acquired, independent of the players sent the other way.)

Carolina/Greenville
Carolina receives:
SP Angel Ramirez

Greenville receives:
SP David Cantu (prospect)
SP Will Clark (prospect)
SP Felipe Baez (prospect)

[list][*] Injuries and decline sapped a good deal of talent and depth from a once potent Kraken staff. In an attempt to address this, Carolina acquired Angel Ramirez from Greenville. Ramirez looks like a number 2, given his three good pitches, strong fastball, with above average to good motion and control. However, the 30 year old lefty has been a consistent underachiever throughout his career, posting a FIP in the upper 3's. He's still a very solid pitching option, and given run support will pitch well enough to win a lot of games.[/list]



[list][*] David Cantu is 25 and underdeveloped. He has a ceiling of a weak ace or more likely good number 2 starter. However, time running out for this once blue chip prospect. At the end of 2021, he was 5/8/6. He progressed to an underwhelming 6/8/6 by 4/2024. (Now 6/8/7 of 8/8/9) He's spent most of the last 4 years in AAA. It is unclear why he's never been given a shot to pitch at the highest level, especially given the arrest of his progress. At this point, he's only about 50/50 in my mind to ever develop further, and less that that chance to reach his terrific ceiling.
[*] Twenty year old right Will Clark boasts a nice fastball, curveball, splitter combo that sets him in good position to maybe start one day in the MBWBA. He looks like he'll have trouble giving up the longball, and either needs to throw a bit harder than his already nice 94-96 range or figure out how to get some more action on his stuff to stick at the big league level.
[*] Felipe Baez was a nice 4 pitch starter prospect at the time of the deal with 7/7/7 ratings, and was on a solid development track. Although this will not figure in the grades given for this trade, he may be the most likely to be a solid contributor for the 'Shiners in the future as he's bumped his velocity to reach 8/7/7. [/list]

Carolina has clearly gotten tired of waiting on Cantu, and given their time is now, this move makes sense. They gave up a marginal prospect in Clark and a decent one in Baez to solidify a starting rotation that needed help. Ramirez is signed next year at a 5.5 mil tag as well. In return for a pitcher who will provide them no meaningful innings over the duration of his contract for a rebuilding Greenville club, they picked up a few decent pitching prospects. If I had to guess, I'd suspect Baez settles in as a 3-4 type starter someday, as does Cantu (Maybe 7/8/8 someday?). Not too bad.

Grades
Carolina
Talent: B-
Organizational: B
Greenville
Talent: B-
Organizational: A





Louisville/California
Louisville receives:
IF Paul Regret

California receives:
RP Armando Moran (prospect)

[list][*] Regret's primary value is that he frees up a roster spot. For 1.2 mil per year, he can play very good backup D at every infield position, and you could do worse in our thin league if a starter goes down with injury. [/list]



[list][*] Moran is a long shot to ever be a big league reliever. His developmental strength is that his motion and control have survived his increases in velocity. He's still most likely a AAA RP.[/list]

This is a fairly boring trade. California frees up 1.2 mil, Louisville grabs a depth IF.

Grades
Louisville
Talent: C-
Organizational: C+
California
Talent: D+
Organizational: C+





Vancouver/Buffalo
Vancouver receives:
SP Mick Hanscombe
SP Juan Hernandez(prospect)

Buffalo receives:
P Li Beggs

[list][*] Hanscombe is a back of the rotation starter. Most years one will probably be happy with his 4-4.50 era performance, but he has the potential to turn in the occasional stinker of a year. He has a fairly unfortunate contract that owes him over 15 million for the two years after this one.
[*] Hernandez is 20 years old and well on his way to becoming a solid #3 starter He has #2 stuff, but his bad split against lefties and propensity to give up the long ball limit him.[/list]



[list][*] Li Beggs is an interesting player. He's been primarily used a a reliever throughout his career, but has had success as a starter. He is the epitome of a lefty junkballer. If he can settle in as a 3-4 type starter, he'll be a dirt cheap option there. Even as a reliever, at 26 he can give Buffalo several good years of performance.[/list]

When I first saw this trade, I thought Buffalo had made a pretty bad deal. They are not currently a contender, and paid a prospect to get a reliever and get out of a potentially bad deal on Hanscombe (that they signed). That changes if Beggs can start. It's still an odd move, unless they have something up their sleeve to put them in contention in the next year or so (before Hernandez would have been ready. Vancouver on the other hand takes on a bad deal and flips an older player to get a solid prospect.

Grades
Vancouver
Talent: B
Organizational: A-
Buffalo
Talent: C+
Organizational: C+





Vancouver/Brooklyn
Vancouver receives:
P Randall Thomas (prospect)

Brooklyn receives:
P Len Caldwell

[list][*] Randall Thomas is a 21 year old 7/7/7 four pitch righty. He's probably a bit old to ask for the bump necessary to make him a starter, but he's almost a lock to succeed as an RP conversion, with a ceiling as a 3.80 era middle relief type.[/list]



[list][*] Len Caldwell is a AAA pitcher, not even a AAAA guy.[/list]

I have no idea why Brooklyn made this deal. If they wanted a scrub to pitch at the big league level, they could have just used Thomas. Caldwell has no business being in the bigs on a contender. Vancouver gets something for nothing.

Grades
Vancouver
Talent: C+
Organizational: A+
Brooklyn
Talent: D-
Organizational: F





Carolina/Calgary
Carolina receives:
SP Fox Mulder

Calgary receives:
OF Marco Balderas (prospect)
P Carlos Ramirez (prospect)
IF Carlos Estrada (prospect)
OF Mike Henson (prospect)

[list][*] Fox Mulder isn't a top of the rotation pitcher anymore, but still has the goods to be a mid to back of the rotation guy. He's signed next year for a reasonable price, but having already lost 3 MPH this year, there's a chance his arm falls off before his contract is up. [/list]



[list][*] Balderas is a very nice OF prospect. He doesn't really have the range for CF or the arm for RF, and probably is more of an elite LF. As a right handed bat, his contact is a bit lower than what one would like for a star, but he probably turns into one of those underrated depth roster guys who goes .265/.330/.455 while playing stellar defense and swiping a few bases.
[*] Carlos Ramirez is a bit underdeveloped for 22. He'll need to make rapid progress to justify the opinions of the scouts that project him is a back end of the rotation starter. Being lefty will mitigate his 6 motion somewhat. However, he probably finds a home as a bullpen guy, as being able to just chuck it as hard as he can for a couple innings will maximize his marginal stuff.
[*] Carlos Estrada is a prospect in name only. His ceiling is uber IF backup with no bat to speak of. More likely a AAAA guy that bounces back and forth until he declines into permanent AAA quality.
[*] Henson is the corner OF version of what I said about Estrada, but with bad defense. [/list]

At first, this deal looks like Carolina gave up a 4.5 star 21 year old CF for a #3 at best starter. However Balderas isn't a CF and isn't an impact bat. Taking that into account, the Kraken traded a good depth OF and a pitching prospect with development questions for a rotation depth. Not bad. Not bad for Calgary either, who, now in full rebuild, recoup a potential lineup staple for an aging starter. As an aside, this is now two Kraken pitchers traded who haven't developed well in a minors system that has a VERY conservative advancement process. (Hah! I will push my agendas down your throat, MBWBA)

Grades
Carolina
Talent: C+
Organizational: B-
Calgary
Talent: B-
Organizational: B





Valencia/Yellow Springs
Valencia receives:
RP Wayne Williams

Yellow Springs receives:
Zip. Zilch. Nada.

[list][*] Every once in a while Williams will put up a string of innings that convinces someone his electric stuff merits him another chance as a big league reliever. It doesn't. [/list]


I want to penalize YS for giving up a player without getting anything in return, but I can't. Williams just doesn't matter. Once could make the argument that Valencia made a bad move by paying 800k that they didn't have to, but again, meh.

Grades
Not applicable, as nothing really happened here.





Vancouver/Des Moines
Vancouver receives:
SP Emilio Nabo

Des Moines receives:
SP Ramon Farias

[list][*] Emilio Nabo has seven years of big league experience proving he shouldn't be starting in the MBWBA. Why doesn't someone give him a shot out of the pen? He throws hard, has two solid breaking pitches and a below average fastball. What if being in the pen makes that pitch acceptable?[/list]



[list][*] Does anyone believe that Farias somehow has a career 3.7 FIP? At 29, he's probably at the end up his starting pitcher rope as his stuff is marginal to begin with, but he's a good back end starter until it starts to go.[/list]

Kudos to Des Moines for giving up on Nabo. I'm not sure how they got Vancouver to give up a real player with value for a not useful one in Nabo, unless the Mounties have some reason to believe he will succeed out of the pen. Even if that is the case, they traded a 29 year old average starter for a 29 year old average reliever, which is still a loss.

Grades
Vancouver
Talent: D+
Organizational: C+
Des Moines
Talent: C+
Organizational: B-

That takes care of the early season moves. I'll probably get the newest handful of trades in the next couple days before tackling last offseason.

[bschr682]

I traded for Nabo as an experiment. I want to see how pitchers of his type fair in my park. Farias may be the better talent but I have other prospects that profile like Nabo so I wanted to see what he could do. And nobody was going to give me anything for Farias so why not. After a horrendous first few starts Nabo has been pretty damn good. Gives me great hope for the future.

[Ted]

I traded for Nabo as an experiment. I want to see how pitchers of his type fair in my park. Farias may be the better talent but I have other prospects that profile like Nabo so I wanted to see what he could do. And nobody was going to give me anything for Farias so why not. After a horrendous first few starts Nabo has been pretty damn good. Gives me great hope for the future.

Figured you had a reason. And you're right no one would give you anything for Farias. He's been quietly way better than people think he is, but you would have had a tough time convincing others of that. I'll change your grade. That's a good, creative use of an asset.

[avery]

"Creative use of an asset." I like that.

[Chey]

I dunno, I'd say Li Beggs has been a little better than an okay reliever. Leads all of baseball in Wins, fourth in hits per 9 innings, third in innings pitched and fourth in strikeouts.

I can live with that deal so far.

[Ted]

I dunno, I'd say Li Beggs has been a little better than an okay reliever. Leads all of baseball in Wins, fourth in hits per 9 innings, third in innings pitched and fourth in strikeouts.

I can live with that deal so far.

I'll have to admit that I was grading Beggs as a reliever. His pitching his heart out for you, and does have a decent track record as a starter. I'm going to add this to the ongoing list of things to look at later. Getting out of Hanscombe's deal is nice (even if you signed it) There's also a chance that Hernandez is a bust, especially given that he has a bad split and the dreaded 6 motion versus left.

[Chey]

Aside: "Li" is kind of a weird name for a white Australian, no?

[Chey]

I'm a little less cocky about this deal after Hernandez's big bump. 9/7/8 now.

[aaronweiner]

Aside: "Li" is kind of a weird name for a white Australian, no?

Maybe not if it's short for Liam.