Discussing July 21 1997 Trade Deadline deal

[felipe]

McKinley Washington was dealt July 21 1997 from Phoenix to Greenville for Garlands Gumdrop, Calvin Schiraldi, John Simonson, and JP Tetreault.

The trade made a lot of sense for the 1997 Greenville Moonshiners. Their current closer, Garlands Gumdrop, had struggles all season, and they were in the midst of a three team race for the 1997 Johnson League Atlantic Divisional crown.

McKinley Washington was THE preeminent closer in the MBBA in 1997. He had made the All-Star team in each of the three preceding seasons, including the game one month before the deal. He was twenty-six years old, and was sporting a 1.78 ERA, and 21 saves by mid-July for THE worst team (Phoenix) in the entire Johnson League.

There seemed little reason for a last place team to keep the best closer in the Johnson League. What does a hen need with a flag? So the Phoenix club set out to get what they could for their star closer.

Here is the news report from Phoenix at the time:

GM Hopkins defended his decision to trade the best closer in the MBBA, McKinlay Washington, today, before the angry Phoenix media hordes and fans.
"Once Washington made it clear he wasn't going to re-sign at the end of the year, I had only one option,"defended hopkins,"Try to get something better than a supplemental first round pick for him. And, I think I accomplished that."
Once Phoenix fans got over their initial disappointment at losing McKinlay, they agreed. "Garlands Gumdrop is a freak, baby!"one fan screamed.
Joining the twenty-seven year-old Gumdrop in Phoenix, is thirty-five year old right-hander, Calvin Schiraldi. Schiraldi had been finishing out his career in the backwoods of AAA Newark, and has not seen the Bigs since 1995. But GM Hopkins has big plans for the wiley pro. "Schiraldi is going to be our closer,"announced Hopkins to the gathered hordes,"If you look at his qualities, all the ingredients are there for a quality closer."
"Hopkins is an idiot,"muttered Gumdrop,"Schiraldi is a washed up has been, he hasn't even played a meaningful game in two years! Whats he gonna do with me? I ain't setting the table for that greybeard."
Gm Hopkins confirmed that Gumdrop would be joining his middle inning relief corps, and not displacing Olin or DiPoto as a setup man.
Also joining the Talon organisation are new Santa Cruz AA shortstop, twenty year-old John Simonsen and new Santa Cruz AA left-handed 24 year-old starter JP Tetreault.
"Simonsen is kind of a throw-in, but I'm gonna get a look at him at second base in AA,"announced GM Hopkins,"And the fans may see him up in Phoenix at the late season call-ups this summer. He's got some speed and he knows how to move the runners over into scoring position. He's a heady ballplayer."
"Tetreault could end up being the key to this deal,"mumbled Hopkins,"He's got a ways to go in terms of development yet, but the intangibles are there. Plus he's a young lefty, and anyone familiar with our organisation knows we got a shortage of those. I'd put him at two more years away from joining the big club."

And from Greenville:

Despite all the things that went wrong for Greenville in July, at least a couple did go right.
First, the Moonshiners appear to have shored up their closer issues after trading for Phoenix's McKinley Washington. The 26-year-old pitcher had spent his entire career with the Talons until this deal, saving 159 games with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP under 1.25 in 346 games. In his first four games with the Moonshiners, Washington picked up a save, giving up just 1 run and 2 hits in 4 innings, striking out 6 batters and walking 1.
Going to Phoenix was former Greenville closer Garlands P. Gumdrop, who had struggled for the Moonshiners, going 3-4 with 14 saves, a 5.36 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 47 games. Also joining the Talons were MR Calvin Schiraldi, minor-league IF John Simonson and SP prospect Jean-Philippe Tétreault.

Early returns on the deal seemed to favour the Phoenix club, which was certainly unexpected by the MBBA…(the following courtesy of Phoenix news release)

Its still early days yet, but forgive GM Hopkins for the smug look on his face.
"Everyone laughed at me when I made that McKinley Washington trade,"he scoffs,"But who's laughing now?"
GM Hopkins' bizarre decision to call-up 35 year old AAA journeyman Calvin Schiraldi (acquired in the Washington trade) and install him as Washington's direct replacement, (as Phoenix closer), had a lot of people around the MBBA shaking their heads in disbelief. But early returns suggest that maybe, GM Hopkins might know what he's doing.
"Its a fluke,"disgruntled Phoenix fan Gumdrop was heard to mutter,"The guy shuffles his deck every two weeks, throwing guys in and out of the order, in and out of the rotation, in and out of AAA, in and out of Phoenix. Most of the time he fails spectacularly - look at what he's gotten out of this talented team - nothing, that's what. This is the two week exception that proves the rule, that essentially he's clueless. Mark my words, in two more weeks when Schiraldi reverts back to the crap pile he's always been, Hopkins will panic and send him down to AAA. And that'll be the last we ever hear of the bum. And then Hopkins'll come crawling back to the Gumdrop - expecting me to bail him out."
Calvin Schiradli has appeared in 6 games for the Talon since the blockbuster trade, and has racked up a win and four saves in 6 and a third innings with a minuscule 1.42 ERA - edging Washington himself in a direct head to head comparison (Washington, 6 apps, 2 saves, 7 innings, 1.29 ERA). The two will get a chance to go head to head in two days time when Greenville arrives in Phoenix for a three game set.

Later reports of the season (from the Phoenix paper) also seemed to have Hopkins winning the early decision on the deal…

Calvin Schiraldi is without a doubt, the best closer in the MBBA since his deal, while the player he was dealt for, McSucksaLot Washington has crumbled since he left the warm confines of Phoenix for the icy chill of Greenville. .. And to think that Phoenix got additional stars like Gumdrop, Douglass, and Simonsen out of these same deals, too.
"It is hard to be humble,"admitted GM Hopkins,"I am quite clearly, better, than most."
…he was quite effusive about his plans to commission a bronze statue to be placed outside the main gates of the Chavez Memorial Park next season.
"There are two design finalists,"Hopkins admitted,"The first one shows me benevolently patting a grateful kneeling Schiraldi on the head,as he presents up to me his glove and ball; and the other design depicts me, shoving a dildo, shaped like McKinley Washington's head, far up a squealing lchronister's, (Grenville GM), ass. You can't really go wrong with either design."

But who really won the deal back in 1997? A comparison of what the (three) closers involved, did in the last third of the 1997 season is surely in order...

Washington…23 games, 26.2 innings, 29/7 k/bb, 6.41 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, .451 BABIP, 7 saves, -1.3 VORP
Schiraldi…24 games, 21 innings, 29/14 k/bb, 3.86 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, .362 BABIP, 13 saves, +3.9 VORP
Gumdrop…16 games, 29.2 innings, (5 starts), 36/12 k/bb, 10.62 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, .429 BABIP, 1 save, -17.3 VORP

It would appear that Phoenix won the deal initially; Schiraldi the last minute throw-in, produced by far the best numbers, as a closer, in 1997.

But what was up with Gumdrop? Gumdrop was given a total of 75 innings by the two MBBA teams in 1997 and sported a cumulative 7.44 ERA for his efforts…its easy now to look back and wonder why on earth such a struggling pitcher was given so many innings…

Gumdrop was even in those early days considered something of an enigma. The guy simply had (and still does) great stuff. He has averaged over the course of his career 2/1 k/bb! And yet the guy has a career ERA of almost 5.00...and an average yearly VORP (over his entire career) of 7.5…numbers that are a far cry from what his talent would suggest.

Plus, back in 1997 (his third MBBA season) he was already bitching about his role on the Greenville (and then Phoenix) staff...which helps to explain why Greenville was so eager to deal the prospective star. And perhaps that helps to explain why he posted a -17.3 VORP for Phoenix in a little over two months!

But to get back to our comparison, Washington was NOT an improvement over what Gumdrop had given Greenville prior to the deal in 1997, (Gumdrop’s 1997 Greenville stats:- 45 innings, 47/17 k/bb, 1.43 WHIP,.339 BABIP,14 saves, +2.4 VORP), but Greenville still managed to squeak into the 1997 Johnson League playoffs , one game behind Baltimore to earn the wildcard, and finishing one game ahead of Louisville. So I guess the trade ‘worked’ for Greenville, although not in the manner intended, it was more of an addition by subtraction! But, then again, would Gumdrop have performed so poorly if he had simply stayed in Greenville?

And why was Washington so dreadful in Greenville? He was going from a dreadful team to a highly competitive one. One would reason his stats should have become even more dominating in Greenville. Was he simply a victim of a dreadful Greenville defence? His BABIP in 1997 in Greenville was certainly frightening, and he never ever approached that number again. But no, it appears he was just very unlucky in 1997. The entire defence wasn’t great by any stretch, but perfectly adequate, with the likes of Jack See(+6.8 RF)and Jake Urban(+4.6 RF) as the double play combo, and Aaron Hayes(+18.1)in CF.

But this deal wasn’t made by either team for 1997 reasons alone. The two twenty-six year-old pitchers were the principals, but there were other pieces too.

Let’s take a look at how 1998 shaped up for the two protaganists.

1998 saw Greenville win their division, and sport the second best record in the entire Johnson League; Phoenix won even fewer games in 1998…a hard to imagine 54…

McKinley…68 games, 73.2 innings, 79/20 k/bb, 3.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .333 BABIP, 39 saves, 16.9 VORP

Conversely, in Phoenix, Gumdrop ended up in AAA Flagstaff for much of 1998 after 12 lacklustre MBBA innings, and thirty-five year-old Schiraldi proved to everyone’s satisfaction that his 1997 season was a fluke when he posted a 6.25 ERA over 44.2 innings, 58/37 k/bb, 1.88 WHIP, .352 BABIP, 14 saves, -4.9 VORP; (he lost the closers job to Segundo Prado halfway through the season and then promptly retired at season’s end.)

Early 1998 returns on the deal are definitely in Greenville’s favour.

But if we take a look at the long view, (to the end of 2007), let’s see how the deal has worked out for the two teams.

First, championships…neither side has won one since the deal, so that’s easy enough.

Secondly, Cumulative VORP:

Oddly enough, Washington does not appear in the top 88 individual seasons save totals of relievers in the MBBA; he has never cracked 40 saves in a season. But he is fourth in all-time saves, and a three time all-star since leaving Phoenix, as well as the recipient of the top reliever award in 2002, when he also won the Landis Memorial Series with California.
Impressive, and his VORP since leaving Phoenix is 167.2, (of which 29.1 was earned with Greenville).

Gumdrop has earned 86.5 VORP since leaving Greenville, but ‘earned’ an incredible -18.7 VORP while plying his trade in Phoenix. But he has earned the tidy sum of $52 million dollars since leaving Greenville.

Schiraldi put up a cumulative VORP of -1 for Phoenix in his career.

John Simonson, bounced around Phoenix and Madison in the MBBA for seven years, providing excellent defence in a limited role at second base, coupled with an anemic (-4.2 VORP) bat. He then rejoined GM Hopkins in the EBA in Belfast, where he proved to everybody he had no business playing as an everyday second baseman, as he posted a staggering -17.7 VORP over two seasons, (coupled with excellent defence at second base). Simonson was a -8.9 VORP while in Phoenix.

So far, Phoenix would have been FAR better off just giving Washington to Greenville; but of course, we’ve forgotten one last part of the deal, JP Tetreault.

JP has never won a significant award, he has never won a championship, (although it’s hard to blame him – he was in Phoenix for most of his career!), and he’s never been an all-star.
But he was a starting pitcher for 8 seasons…a very good starter…a left-handed starter. His won-lost is 104-88 over 242 starts, with a career MBBA ERA of 3.62 (Washington’s is 3.08 since the deal), and he’s accumulated a staggering 305 VORP over his career. 263.2 VORP accumulated in Phoenix.

Advantage Phoenix.

If nothing else, this comparison would seem to prove that 8 seasons of a number 2 or 3 starter is worth roughly twice what 17 seasons of what a likely Hall of Fame closer is worth.
Is that truly accurate? After all these years, Tetreault has only pitched roughly 600 more innings than Washington. He’s only struck out roughly 300 more batters; (1225 to 943). His career ERA is 6/10 of a run higher, as we’ve seen above.

There are other ways we can look at this trade too. We could compare Washington’s career to his successors career in Phoenix (all the closers) to see if Phoenix should have just kept him. Or to see if it would have made any difference to Phoenix's fortunes...

We could also look at all the players that have been traded for our 5 principals in their careers, and look at their VORPs – and factor that into the equation too.

But I’ll leave that data for next time.

In the final analysis, I guess both teams got what they were after in this deal. Greenville wanted a preeminent closer for their bullpen for the immeditae future, and Phoenix was keeping both eyes firmly on the future. Draw?

Nah...GM Hopkins wins again!



(Well...not literally...figuratively...)

[agrudez]

Love the period pieces. I've always wondered how you select the ones you do... for some reason I imagine a dartboard in your room, haha.

As far as the comparison of JP v. Washington I think it is wrong to think of it as 'only 600 IP more'. Rather, I prefer to think of it as JP throwing 160% of the IP that Washington did and clocking in with 182% of his WAR - a big factor of which is that there are more high quality closers (or, rather, less poor quality ones) than starters. I, personally, have always felt that, in a vacuum, elite closers are about as valuable as quality #3 starters - and this comparison seems to support the theory.

[felipe]

Selecting them is simple, I just look at my old deals, to see if I won!

But I'm gonna select others next time.

But surely 17 yrs of elite closing has to be worth more than half as much as eight years of a number 2 starter?

[agrudez]

But surely 17 yrs of elite closing has to be worth more than half as much as eight years of a number 2 starter?

Well, like I stated, JP had 160% of the IP that Washington did and 182% of the WAR. So, per inning, JP was producing 12% more WAR than Washington was. When you factor in that closer is a harder position to procure WAR in than the rotation (there are only 24 closers of which probably 70% are close to Washington's quality vs. 120 starters of which probably 20% are close to JP's quality) then I'd argue that Washington was actually more valuable at his position, but less valuable to the team overall. Which makes sense to me since I buy into the theory that a closer=#3 starter.

[trmmilwwi]

Awesome writeup!

[JimBob2232]

This is the reason this is my one and only league. I love the history here. For new folks coming in, hang in there...you'll get it eventually. I have not been here from the begining, but i love that finally players entering the HOF i remember playing! Really helps when voting too.

[jpoppe0219]

Very nice

[recte44]

This is the reason this is my one and only league. I love the history here. For new folks coming in, hang in there...you'll get it eventually. I have not been here from the begining, but i love that finally players entering the HOF i remember playing! Really helps when voting too.

It's the reason I brought it back, too. Because of the history.

[jpoppe0219]

I wonder what bronze statue they ended up going with?

[scottsdale_joe]

Gumdrop pitched a no-hitter last year for Vancouver against a tough Hawaii team.
He is retiring when this season is over.
He wasn't a star in Vancouver, but he earned his keep.