2060 - Trade Analysis: Louisville Trades Shaw To Des Moines

[lordtoffee]

The April 19-21 series at Louisville between the Kernels and Sluggers has all of a sudden featured a possible BBA subplot. Greg Shaw could pitch in this series. Only this time, the veteran starter is not going to be wearing the Louisville uniform that he has worn his entire career. Instead, he is going to be a Des Moines Kernel. With that possibility existing, now would be a good time to take a closer look at the trade, and attempt to see what it means for the players and teams involved.

The Deal:
Louisville Sluggers send:
SP Greg Shaw (ML) - Retain 10%

Des Moines Kernels send:
CF Salih bin Salah (R)
$2,000,000

The Context:
A lot of folks like to claim that the Heartland is the best division in baseball, and certainly the early going has demonstrated that the claim has merit. Interestingly, Twin Cities has the best record in the BBA so far, but Nashville, a surprising good start from Yellow Springs, and Des Moines are the early division contenders. Louisville has been predicted to have a tough go of it this year, and based on what Brian has said that he is looking to deal away some veterans for cash. He did it already with sending Tank Michaels to Vegas, and dealing Shaw also helps him get some cash on hand as well as getting something for a high priced veteran.

What Does This Trade Mean For Des Moines?:
Des Moines is a team that I think is going to be in the playoff hunt and wouldn't surprise me if they are going to take a wild card spot when it is all said and done in 2060. Shaw brings a veteran presence and playoff experience to Iowa, and provides a great middle of the rotation option that should help the Kernels better match up with teams in a Frick playoff race that if history tells us is going to be tightly contested all year. Shaw is going to be with the team through next season or 2062 depending on that player option, and the Kernels are only paying 90% of his salary. The rub for Des Moines is that their financial projections indicate that they have a chance to have -7 million dollars at the end of the season, so getting that playoff revenue will have a big impact on what happens with their PPT usage or if they could have to make some decisions this offseason.

Shaw is a great addition to the Des Moines rotation. He typically is a 3-4 WAR player, and based on his stats in Louisville means that he is a good candidate to bounce back after a down year by his standards. Of course, Shaw is 34. We all know that pitchers can fall off a cliff around his age for a variety of reasons, so this deal isn't without risk for Des Moines. His injury history has been good, with only the elbow injury a few years ago being a serious one. Shaw also means that the Kernels have a very good rotation, ranking 4th in the BBA according to the positional strength metric in game. The concerns for Des Moines is age, finances, and if Shaw regresses.

What Does This Trade Mean For Louisville:
For the Sluggers, it's clear that they are in the middle of the rebuild, and Shaw wasn't going to be around for when the Sluggers return to contention. Brian has been open about getting some veterans off his books for some cash and the odd prospect to give him more options, and I think that he will benefit from this draft being so deep as he continues his rebuild during the next little while. The BBA is as much played in the balance sheet as the baseball diamond, and Brian can use the cash as he sees fit during this rebuild, likely making sure that his balance is good or using it to invest in IFA players or give him more budget to play with. But of course, cash wasn't the only thing that he got in the trade.

Salih bin Salah is a CF who is 19 years old, and is going to need a few years in the minors to develop. He isn't likely to be a star, but would provide the ability to place him at any outfield position, a glove that could be worth some upside, and could be a solid bench player or fringe BBA starter if everything goes right. He isn't going to move the needle, but I think that Brian can use him in that role or package him in a trade if he sees the chance. Salah isn't someone that Des Moines would be upset to lose, but the reason why Brian might have took this deal is that he gets a bit of flexibility and can get some payroll off his books as he takes the next step in his rebuild.

[RT60]

perfectly analyzed!

[JRamirez]

Shaw is scheduled to pitch in that series. I hope his former teammates don't give him a hard time.

[BaseClogger]

Good analysis. I think bin salah is at least an average starter if he fully develops, but that keeps looking less likely.