Breaking Down the FL Wild Card Races, Final Edition 1996

[aaronweiner]

Welcome back to the wildest of wild card races. Buffalo won BOTH of the games against Calgary, giving them an undeniable advantage...and yet find themselves tied with Calgary again after a pitifully-timed 3-4 week against Atlantic City, Montreal and Long Beach. Calgary, after dropping the two against Buffalo, find themselves tied at the top of the wild card leaderboard - and just two and a half back of Seattle, against whom they grabbed the first two games of a four game set. Even more unexpected: Las Vegas went 6-3, and Birmingham went 7-3, bringing them both within a game of the wild card.

Still no love for red-hot Atlantic City, though; technically, four games back puts them in the race, but it'll be miraculous if they leapfrog all four teams to even tie. It would undoubtedly take at least a 8-1 record (better 9-0) which means they'd have to win fifteen of their last sixteen games, most of the remainder against Buffalo and Hackensack. We're not putting money on that one.

So, with nine games to go, it's really, really anyone's game. Let's take a really close look at the final stretch run, where anyone could take home the prize, where Seattle could still win the wild card, where all the action happens! If teams are tied at the end of the year, we get a playoff, so there's a lot at stake here.


Team Schedules

Buffalo Bison (76-68), tied

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 5 (Hackensack three, Atlantic City two)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Montreal)


Calgary Marauders (76-68), tied

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 5 (two Seattle, three Las Vegas)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 4 (Long Beach)


Las Vegas Hustlers (75-71) trailing by 1/2 game, one in loss column

Games left: 8
Games left against contenders: 6 (three Seattle, three Calgary)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 2 (Long Beach)


Birmingham Bandits (73-70), trailing by one game

Games left: 9
Games left against contenders: 2 (two Austin)
Games left against sub-.500 teams: 7 (four New Orleans, three Des Moines)


Key Series Down the Stretch


September 21-22, Calgary at Seattle
TIVO rating: 100

Well, Calgary won the first two games of the series, and if they win the last two, Calgary and Seattle are in a tie in the loss column. This makes the next two games must-see-TV, especially since one of them features the unstoppable force, the Seattle offense, against the immovable object, Calgary starter Allen Izatt. Izatt, arugably the league's best pitcher, can get three starts in if they pitch him on three days' rest for the rest of the season, including this start and one against Vegas, so he may pitch in the third game instead of the fourth.


September 23-25, Las Vegas at Calgary
TIVO rating: 90

Well, let's go ahead and say that Calgary wins both their games. And then let's say that Las Vegas, who is absolutely on fire right now, finishes the job against Long Beach. This is a game with more than wild card ramifications, and Las Vegas gets Seattle right after Calgary! Anyone else excited? A lot of factors will depend on how important this series actually is, but we know this much: it isn't small.


September 23-25, Buffalo at Hackensack
TIVO rating: 90

This could be the last series of the year that matters and the ONLY series left for Buffalo that they're potentially favored to lose. At this point, Buffalo is set to miss both John Ross Riles and Ron Burgundy, instead getting Williamson Prushnok, Esequiel Mejia and Andres Guzman against John Oloughlin, Amen Mitrani and Katarou Sadao. None of the three games are easy wins, but it'll be easier than facing the #2 and #3 Frick pitchers in ERA. Hackensack has already basically wrapped up the Frick Atlantic and the two seed, as expected.


September 21-22, Birmingham at Austin
TIVO rating: 80

Bad blood between the two franchises has reached a fever pitch now, as the Bandits took the first two games of a four-game set. Reports have it that Sammy Bodeen will take the hill for Birmingham in the fourth game, moved up a day. If Birmingham unleashes the kraken on Austin, they're probably in the driver's seat to get at least a tie.


September 21-22, Buffalo at Atlantic City
TIVO rating: 75

This one will be Richard Tolleson and Dave Blain for Buffalo against ATC's Mike Tedder and Oriol Hernandez. Atlantic City has already taken the first two games of the series, so this is for Buffalo to start getting back on the right track again. It is entirely possible for Buffalo to get a split against Montreal, lose two of three from Hackensack and lose these two games, though they're favored in both. So, these are actually somewhat crucial games for the Bison, especially since Atlantic City has their own outside designs on the wild card now.


September 21-22, Des Moines at New Orleans
TIVO rating: 0

Just kidding. But the wild card is really wild this year.


Anaylsis of FL Wild Card Race

Buffalo has two against ATC, three against Hackensack and four against Montreal. Yes, Dave Blain and Richard Tolleson just shut down Montreal in a quick two game set, but there's no reason to believe that the Blazers, as bad as they are, can't win one or even get a split in four games against Buffalo. Hackensack, who hasn't officially clinched yet, still wants to win the games against Buffalo. The Bison went from having the best remaining schedule to having one full of potential pitfalls. We'll see how well they handle it.

Calgary missed a golden opportunity this week. Yes, they did sweep two against Long Beach, and, more notably, won the first two games of a set against Seattle. However, the Marauders lost two of their three against Frick-worst Montreal. If they'd won that series they'd be in really good shape. The Marauders now have to handle Seattle for two more, then host Las Vegas, and then get Long Beach for four more. Calgary has won their last six against Long Beach but is just 11-7 against the Surfers this season, meaning the last series could be a split. In other words: the Marauders don't have an easy path to the wild card either.

Las Vegas has an equally tough task to the other two teams. Vegas has been throwing a four-man rotation against the league with four excellent starters, and it's been working: the Hustlers are 12-5 in September and are now just a half game back. Seattle stands in the way of both Vegas and Calgary, and Vegas' three-game set with the Marauders is huge. Las Vegas has as good a shot as anyone if the wheels don't come off their four-man rotation, and they're the only contender left with an off day. Vegas does have to contend with being a game back in the loss column and in, well, playing Seattle and Calgary, but if they complete the sweep of Long Beach and take two of three from Calgary, that may put them in the driver's seat.

Birmingham actually has, by far, the easiest schedule among the remaining contenders, though they'll have to deal with the crushing loss of Damian Bedgood. The Bandits have already secured their first series split with the Riverbats. They're only a game back, and if they get a split against Austin in the final two games of the series, they have three against Des Moines and four against New Orleans left. The most recent series with New Orleans is the only one they've lost to them this year since April (and did so on six unearned runs in the third game), and they're an outrageous 13-3 against rebuilding Des Moines since May. Can they win this thing? Yes, absolutely yes, the Bandits can win this thing.

Okay, we'll comment on ATC. Four games back with nine to play and four teams to beat is an outrageously low possibility, but if ATC wins at least eight of their last nine, then they have a small chance and may take Buffalo out in the process. They'd be rooting for Vegas and Calgary to split 2-1 and both to lose to Seattle, Buffalo to win no more than four of their remaining seven games and Birmingham to screw up since a 6-3 Birmingham record (a real possibility with their schedule) puts them at best in a tie. We don't mind mentioning them because they've worked hard to even have this small chance.

We expect that if Seattle loses the division they'll also lose the wild card, as we think that for them to lose the division the wheels will basically have to come off and someone else will pass them. We do think that the Vegas/Calgary series will help the Storm as it will give them a chance to gain some ground on both before having to face Vegas.

Final Percentage Odds (this is to at least tie for the wild card)

Buffalo 30%
Calgary 30%
Birmingham 20%
Las Vegas 20%
Atlantic City >1%
Seattle >1%

One more real life calendar day left in the regular season. Who's gonna take it? Your guess is as good as ours!

[aaronweiner]

[aaronweiner]

[recte44]

A season of "if only's" for Las Vegas has just come to a bitter end.